# Daily Brief — 2026-04-15 — 1. Market Snapshot – S&P 500 closed at 6,967 (+1.18%) — less than 1% from the all-time high at 7,002. Today’s futures show stability: the market is waiting to see whether the second round of negotiations with Iran will be real or rhetorical. – Nasdaq +1.96% to 23,639 — … Read more
Market Snapshot Lithuania and the Baltics Europe Ukraine Geopolitics IPO Radar What to Watch Tomorrow Meška’s Comment Hormuz today is not an oil story and not an Iran story. It is a test: can the US in 2026 still dictate to others what sails through that strait. The answer is still unclear, but the contours … Read more
Author: Meška | unwind.wtf From time to time someone notices that I mention XRP – in articles, conversations, analysis. And asks: why this one specifically? The answer is simple: 95% of my investments are currently in this asset. Then comes the second question – why not Bitcoin, not Ethereum, not something else? I tried to … Read more
150 years ago, an Ohio farmer who had lost everything in a financial panic sat down at his table and drew a chart. The chart contained the years when markets would rise, the years when they would fall, and the years when panic would arrive. From 1875 to 2059. In pencil. On paper. Academics still … Read more
Life’s Trade The moment I’ve been waiting for since January is approaching. Maybe even since last autumn, when I started assembling this whole mechanism. Now it’s coming together. Not perfectly — nothing in life comes together perfectly — but clearly enough that I want to talk about it openly. This letter is about one number, … Read more
# Daily Brief — 2026-04-10 – Fed speakers (after hawkish FOMC minutes). – Gold: will it hold $3,250? 1. Market Moment – S&P 500 gained two weeks straight, ~6,825 — already the seventh session in a row, the longest streak since last autumn. The market rode ceasefire euphoria, but yesterday Tehran’s comments began to overturn … Read more
Market Moment Today everything revolves around one word: ceasefire. The US and Iran agreed on a two-week truce, Tehran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and markets reacted as if after a long oxygen-deprived period — with a deep breath. S&P 500 up 2.55%, Nasdaq up 3.50%, Dow up 2.17%. Oil fell sharply — … Read more
Week’s Signal The Hormuz blockade remains essential: a security premium, not a geopolitical trick. The two-week US–Iran ceasefire is melting away, and fleet transit through the strait remains severely restricted. Since March 27, when the IRGC closed the strait, maritime movement dropped to nearly zero. It later returned to about 30% of normal levels, but … Read more
On Easter morning people speak of resurrection. I speak of capitalism. The metaphor is not accidental — the system we are accustomed to periodically declaring dead repeats the same movement with astonishing patience: it falls, it breaks, and it returns. Different, but it returns. This text is about mechanics. About a structure identified a hundred … Read more
2026–2030: A Regime Switch, Not Just a Chain of Events Why So Much Chaos Right Now Chaos emerges when several cycles running at different tempos converge at the same point in time. That’s when the system starts to “crack” — you see risk-on and risk-off simultaneously, euphoria and fear at once. I think of it … Read more
Market Snapshot Tuesday revolved around one question — would Trump press the button at 20:00 Washington time, or not. Markets bet that he probably would. S&P 500 fell 0.9%, Nasdaq dropped 1.3% to 21,854, Dow lost 382 points. WTI oil broke through the $115 mark — up 3% for the day, as Hormuz remains closed … Read more
Sharks On April 9, 2026, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. One sentence from that piece hasn’t left my mind: “The next generation of financial innovation must be built on American rails, American institutions, and American dollars.” American rails. Not European. Not Chinese. American. Bessent urged Congress to … Read more
Market Snapshot S&P 500 – 6,816.89 (-0.11%). The technology sector held its ground (Nvidia +2.58%, Amazon +2.05%), but traditional industry retreated under the full weight of geopolitics. Nasdaq – 22,902.89 (+0.35%). The only one of the three major indices to close in positive territory today. The AI wave’s centre of gravity is holding. Dow Jones … Read more
The 18.6-Year Cycle: Land, Credit and the Moon’s Mysterious Connection In 2007 I was twenty-three. I took out a loan of unimaginable size and bought my first home. Half a year later I was standing in a shop counting coins — would there be enough to pay for my groceries. A car and fuel were … Read more
Market Snapshot S&P 500 closed at 6,886 points (+1.02%), Nasdaq – 23,184 (+1.23%). Markets are rising for the second consecutive day, even with oil above $100. The reason: the probability that the Hormuz crisis will not escalate into a broader military conflict appeared greater today than yesterday. Gold – $4,748 per ounce, near record highs. … Read more
Tactics Sold as Strategies In 2007 I was twenty-three. I took out a loan, bought an apartment – and six months later I was counting cents at the grocery store. I believed what everyone believed: a long horizon smooths everything out. It did – but only after six years. And those six years I paid … Read more
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