Market Snapshot
Tuesday revolved around one question — would Trump press the button at 20:00 Washington time, or not. Markets bet that he probably would.
S&P 500 fell 0.9%, Nasdaq dropped 1.3% to 21,854, Dow lost 382 points. WTI oil broke through the $115 mark — up 3% for the day, as Hormuz remains closed and the signal from Tehran was brief and negative. Gold held near $4,667 — stable, but having risen so far that its reaction range has narrowed. BTC dropped to ~$67,900, down 2.5% for the day. DXY slipped toward 100 — the dollar is weakening, but this is not a sign of weakness, rather the result of capital reallocation: oil and gold are drawing liquidity.
Looking more broadly — markets have been living in Hormuz/Iran mode for a week. Technical indicators are in the background; geopolitical risk pricing is in the foreground.
Lithuania and the Baltics
The Lithuanian military rejected a Moscow propaganda assault — Russia and Belarus coordinated the spread of disinformation claiming Baltic states officially permitted Ukraine to use their airspace for drone attacks against Russia. The military called it a “coordinated information attack” — from social networks all the way to senior Kremlin officials.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed on prioritising air defence reinforcement — the context is obvious: Russia’s war in Ukraine showed that multi-layered air defence is not a luxury. Lithuania’s 2026 defence budget — nearly €4.8 billion, 5.38% of GDP. The largest in history, though the opposition disputes exactly what is counted as “defence spending” under the new NATO criteria.
Europe
The ECB left rates unchanged in March — deposit rate at 2.0%. Official reason: the Middle East war has created too much uncertainty — inflation may rise (oil), growth may fall (trade disruptions). Eurozone manufacturing remains weak — US tariffs, a stronger euro, and the energy crisis are not ending. Inflation fell to 1.7% in January, but this may be a temporary dip if oil prices stay above $110.
Ukraine
Front lines: Ukraine has retaken 480 square kilometres and 12 settlements over the past 10 weeks. Not much, but the direction has changed — Russia is no longer dictating the pace. For civilians — a nightmare: a Russian FPV drone hit a passenger bus in Nikopol, killing 3, wounding 16. In Odesa, a night-time attack — 3 killed, including a child, 18 wounded.
On the diplomatic front — Zelensky proposed an energy ceasefire format: “If Russia stops striking energy infrastructure, we will respond in kind.” The proposal was conveyed through the Americans. Whether Moscow will respond is another question. Most likely not, while Iran is drawing all the attention.
Geopolitics
The whole day centred on Iran and Hormuz. Trump set an 20:00 ET deadline: if Iran does not open the strait — the US will strike power plants and bridges. Quote: “Every bridge in Iran will be destroyed by tomorrow midnight, every power plant will burn and will never be used again.” Iran responded through Pakistan — rejected the temporary ceasefire proposal, demands a permanent end to the war and lifting of sanctions.
Structurally — this is not only about Hormuz. Iran controls approximately 20% of global oil transit. The US is striking Kharg Island — Iran’s main oil export terminal. This means not only cutting off Iran’s oil supply, but sending a signal to every OPEC+ member: energy infrastructure can become a target. The death toll in the region has exceeded 3,400, with over 1,900 in Iran.
China/US — Trump is planning a visit to China this month. Diplomacy continues in parallel with military action — the classic hegemonic model: negotiate with one hand, strike with the other.
Central Banks
ECB March decision — rates unchanged (see above). Fed context: Powell’s term ends in April, and markets are watching not so much the rate decisions as the institutional drama — will the Fed remain independent, or will Trump install his own person. No concrete action today, but the backdrop matters: fiscal dominance — where debt servicing becomes more important than managing inflation — is approaching a critical point. Central banks cannot raise rates as much as they would like, because governments would lose the ability to refinance their debt.
Analyst Voices
Henrik Zeberg — sees BTC potential up to $110,000–120,000 this month if risk appetite holds. Assigns a 25% probability to an overshoot toward $140,000–150,000. Also sees ETH heading toward $10,000–12,000 and SOL in the $350–500 range. Zeberg argues this is not a BTC-specific move but a broader risk-asset appetite.
Raoul Pal — cycle peak in late 2026. Argument: debt refinancing and demographic trends extend the liquidity expansion. Crypto — part of a liquidity supercycle: fiscal stimulus, regulatory money creation, bank balance sheet expansion, weakening dollar.
Luke Gromen — more cautious: warns that BTC could fall to the $40,000 zone in 2026. Gold and certain equities are currently better positioned than BTC, because the debt and fiscal dominance thesis rests primarily on gold, and only secondarily on crypto.
Lyn Alden — March newsletter “A Flywheel of Chaos” — analyses how far the Iran war challenges the gradual printing thesis. The question is simple: does geopolitical shock accelerate fiscal decisions, or delay them?
What to Watch Tomorrow
Trump’s deadline — 20:00 ET. If the US strikes — oil could break $120, gold will rise, BTC reaction unclear (risk-off vs. debasement trade). If some agreement is reached — oil drops 5–8% in a day, equities jump higher.
Iran’s response — whether there will be military escalation or a diplomatic continuation through Pakistan. Iran’s nuclear programme lurks in the shadows — but no one is talking about it today.
Fed tenure question — the closer to the end of Powell’s term, the more speculation about political pressure. This is a structural signal, not a one-day news story.
ECB April 30 meeting — if oil stays above $110, the ECB finds itself in a dead end: inflation is rising, but the economy is stagnating. The classic stagflation stick.
Ukraine’s energy proposal — if Russia responds (unlikely), that would signal Moscow is looking for a tactical pause. If not — status quo, only with greater civilian losses.
Meška’s Comment
Today everything revolved around Hormuz and Trump’s deadline, but the real story goes deeper. What we are seeing is the late phase of a hegemonic cycle in real time: the US is bombing energy infrastructure not to “defend freedom,” but to maintain control of oil flows, which is the foundation of the dollar system. Iran understands this and therefore demands not a ceasefire but structural changes — lifting of sanctions, permanent peace. This is not a war over Hormuz; it is a war over who controls the energy system for the next decade.