# Daily Brief — 2026-04-15
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1. Market Snapshot
– S&P 500 closed at 6,967 (+1.18%) — less than 1% from the all-time high at 7,002. Today’s futures show stability: the market is waiting to see whether the second round of negotiations with Iran will be real or rhetorical. – Nasdaq +1.96% to 23,639 — tech growth is driving the index; AI sector earnings season is exceeding expectations. – Dow Jones +0.66% to 48,536 — conservative, but moving with the current. – WTI oil ~$93–96 — corrected from the peak near $104 after the blockade was announced on April 12–13. Trump’s signals about possible resumption of negotiations with Iran eased pressure, but structural uncertainty remains. – Gold above $4,800/oz — +2% over the last two days. Structural support continues: insecurity + central bank purchases + weak dollar. – BTC ~$74,300 — pulled back from an attempt to break through $76,000. Over 24h +1.3%, but negative funding rates for 46 consecutive days. Additional pressure: today is the US tax deadline (April 15) — some investors are selling to cover tax bills. – DXY at six-week lows — dollar is weak. The two-week ceasefire reduced inflation expectations and along with them pressure on rate hikes.
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2. Lithuania and the Baltics
– The Seimas finally approved a temporary reduction of the diesel excise duty for 2 months (until June 15): 98 MPs voted in favor, none against, 2 abstained. Fuel prices at the pump will drop by ~6 cents. Finance Minister Kristupas Vaitiekūnas explained: the reduction is proposed only for diesel, because due to the conflict in the Middle East this fuel has increased in price the most. The tax shortfall (~€13 million VAT over 2 months) is planned to be covered from additional collected revenues. – The Baltic states issued a joint statement: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia officially informed Russia’s embassies — Ukrainian drones have never fired through their airspace and were not permitted to do so. This is not a legal matter, it is a political signal: the Baltics seek to avoid providing a pretext for escalation. – Estonia signed a contract with Lockheed Martin for three additional HIMARS systems and ammunition — part of a long-term military modernization program. – Prime ministers meeting in Tallinn on April 17 — Rail Baltica and regional security agenda. The significance of decisions taken will become clear after the meeting.
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3. Europe
– ECB Governing Council (April 14) published proposals to strengthen the banking sector’s competitiveness — a response to the European Commission’s consultation. Vice President Luis de Guindos: “The central banks of the euro area are united — a true unified banking market where capital and liquidity move freely across borders is an essential step.” This is not a monetary policy decision, but a clear structural position. – The EU is banning Russian LNG imports from April 25 — the latest element of the sanctions package, affecting gas flows through European ports. This will accelerate the final decoupling from Russian energy infrastructure.
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4. Ukraine
– The Easter ceasefire was symbolic — Ukraine recorded nearly 7,700 Russian violations: more than 6,000 drone attacks and over 1,300 artillery attacks. Russia blames Ukraine for ~2,000 violations. Both sides maintain their counts; neither holds fire. – Washington is pressuring Kyiv: the US demands presidential elections and a peace referendum by May 15 — otherwise security guarantees will not be provided. Zelensky: elections are possible only after real ceasefires and guarantees. Unprecedented pressure: diplomacy is transforming into an ultimatum. – Front: Russia continues to push forward near Pokrovsk (Donetsk region), exploiting Ukraine’s weakened air defense systems. No breakthrough, but land control is slowly shifting. – European military aid in 2025 increased 67% above the 2022–2024 average — compensating for the suspension of US support. Ukraine is holding the line, but the cost is rising.
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5. Geopolitics
– Hormuz blockade active — US Navy has been blockading Iranian ports since April 13. Formally — only Iranian vessels, others have free navigation. But this is the first US action of this kind against an independent state in international waters since the Cold War. – Islamabad negotiations collapsed: JD Vance announced that Iran refused to give a clear commitment to abandon nuclear weapons. Trump claims Iran “wants to talk” — markets believe it, as WTI corrected from $104 to ~$93. Skeptics think this is just buying time. – Oil prices: WTI is 40% more expensive than before the war began. Brent exceeded $100. The license that permitted Iranian oil tanker operations expired April 11; for Russian tankers — also. The Iranian oil license expires April 19. Three deadlines in two weeks — systemic pressure on the supply chain. – China–US: Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China following reports that Beijing is preparing an arms shipment to Iran. Current average tariff — 47.5%, covering 100% of all goods. The May summit is still planned, but today’s threat puts a question mark over it. – EU LNG ban from April 25 — combined with the expiry of sanctions licenses, this forms a wave of energy pressure that could affect gas markets in late April.
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6. Central Banks
– ECB published banking competitiveness proposals — not an interest rate decision, but a clear structural signal that Frankfurt is prioritizing capital market integration as a long-term tool of EU economic power. – Fed issued no new statements, but the previous inflation forecast was raised to 2.7% — oil prices are putting on pressure, and a cut is only possible “if inflation behaves according to plan.” Right now — not so much.
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7. IPO Radar
– Anthropic surpassed OpenAI in revenue for the first time: annual revenue run rate — $30 billion (OpenAI — $25 billion). Growth from $9 billion at end of 2025 in one quarter, driven by enterprise demand for coding tools. More than 1,000 enterprise customers spending over $1 million per year. – Valuation debate: OpenAI claims Anthropic’s true figure is ~$22 billion due to different accounting methods. Both are permissible under US GAAP. This is a game with investor expectations ahead of the IPO, not true accounting. – IPO timeline: Anthropic — possible October 2026; OpenAI valued at $852 billion; Stripe signaling IPO in the first half of 2026. Three AI/fintech giants in the market at the same time — a large supply gap for the coming months.
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8. What to Watch Tomorrow
– Iran’s response after April 19: that day the license for Iranian oil tanker operations expires — will the US extend or escalate? Oil’s direction depends on this. – Pokrovsk front: Russian force advances at the end of the week could signal a greater breakthrough risk. Monitor ISW daily updates. – China’s response to the 50% tariff threat: Beijing’s official statement — an important signal ahead of the May summit. – Bank earnings season: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and PNC reported today — how the financial sector assesses credit quality against the backdrop of oil and geopolitical anxiety. – Baltic ministers’ meeting in Tallinn (April 17): Rail Baltica funding decisions and regional security coordination — the first high-level step following the Baltic airspace statement.
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9. Meška’s Comment
The Seimas voted today to reduce the diesel excise duty. This is a correct and sensible response to imported inflation. But here lies a larger question: Lithuania, like all of Europe, is structurally dependent on oil prices shaped by Washington, Tehran and Riyadh — not Vilnius. The 43% increase in the defense budget is a response to one existential dependency. The energy dependency is still awaiting a systemic answer.
The market today shows optimism — S&P near its maximum, futures calm. But this calm rests on one fact: Trump said Iran “wants to talk.” This is the same cycle, repeating since March: shock → ceasefire → optimism → new shock. Each time the ceasefire lasted a week or so, oil corrected, markets breathed. And each time the structural question — is Hormuz open long-term — remained unanswered. The April 19 license expiry may put this question back on the table.
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*unwind.wtf | 2026-04-15*