Week’s Signal
The Hormuz blockade remains essential: a security premium, not a geopolitical trick. The two-week US–Iran ceasefire is melting away, and fleet transit through the strait remains severely restricted. Since March 27, when the IRGC closed the strait, maritime movement dropped to nearly zero. It later returned to about 30% of normal levels, but that is still a historic shock. This matters not because of a direct war threat, but because of the mechanism for defending US hegemony: control of energy flow. As long as the strait is blocked, the oil security premium does not return to normal. This is an L2–L3 level issue, not L5 news noise.
Markets Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Week |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6 824 | ↑ +2.52% |
| BTC | $70 951 | ↓ −0.22% |
| Gold (XAU) | $4 749 | ↓ −0.30% |
| DXY | 98.87 | → +0.04% |
| Oil WTI | $98 | ↓ ceasefire effect |
| US 10Y | 4.29% | ↑ +21 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.098 | → stable |
| VIX | ~17 | → normal level |
Central Banks Pulse
Federal Reserve
No April FOMC meeting, next one is in May. Powell is staying silent on the oil shock and energy inflation. This is a signal: the Fed is trying not to treat the energy crisis as fundamental. If oil stays high, the Fed will have to confirm this through Q2 inflation data. Until May – silence.
European Central Bank
ECB meeting scheduled for April 30. The ECB needs to act more cautiously than the Fed, because the eurozone feels the energy crisis blow directly. The Italy–Germany bond spread is widening. Lagarde’s task – maintain balance: cut rates slowly, protect euro stability. The mechanism is clear: strong dollar + weak euro = capital flows back to the US.
Charts Thermometer
DXY – Dollar Index
98.87 | Key level: 100 → The dollar defended the 100 level. At the start of the week it slightly exceeded it, then pulled back on the ceasefire. No clear strengthening dynamics, but the safe-haven function is working.
Gold – XAU/USD
$4,749 | Resistance: $4,980 (50-MA) ↓ Gold started pulling back from triangle consolidation. The loss below the 50-MA shows that sellers have taken the initiative. Month-over-month −8.31%, but year-over-year +46.73%. Long-term accumulation continues, short-term pullback.
Bitcoin – BTC/USD
$70,951 | Consolidation below $71k → Ben Cowen: mid-year model – bounce from $60k in February, lower high $76k in March, then back down. Weekly RSI 36. From the $120k high, the $60–65k zone has now become resistance, not support.
US 10Y Yield
4.29% | Rising trend from late winter ↑ Broke upward through EMA 50 and 200. Signal: energy inflation is returning, the Fed may walk back earlier softening signals. Fiscal dominance has already begun – the bond market reflects this.
Geopolitics Panorama
🛢️ Middle East – energy and ceasefire
The Strait of Hormuz has been blockaded for a month and a half. A two-week ceasefire (following Trump’s pressure) – finally agreed through Pakistani mediation, a minute before a strike. Oil channels from the Persian Gulf nearly halted. The US and Israel are escalating the northern front with Hezbollah. This is not a finished conflict – it is a hegemonic defensive move: block Iran’s revenues, maintain the oil premium, preserve dollar control over energy flows.
🇺🇦 Ukraine – front, diplomacy, economy
Russia lost ~1,040 troops in a week (April 9 data), total losses since 2022 – over 1.3 million. Ukraine has reclaimed 440 km² through this month’s operations. The drone war is escalating: Russia is using swarm tactics in the Kharkiv direction. The economic front: Russian oil revenues fell 18% in Q1 2026 due to the Hormuz effect and Western sanctions.
🇷🇺 Russia/EU – sanctions on energy
The US and EU are planning additional sanctions on Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas) on April 25. In practice: Russia has already redirected two-thirds of exports to China, India, and East Asia. Shadow networks are working. Sanctions limit, but don’t cut off – energy cannot be completely severed without fundamental economic consequences for Europe.
🇪🇺 Europe – NATO, EU defence budget
A NATO general will visit the White House this week. Linas Kojala (IIRPS director): “We cannot allow the US to withdraw from NATO – this would be an existential threat to eastern flank states.” France, Germany, Hungary, Czech Republic – different positions on tariffs and Russia. If NATO fragments, Europe loses not only security, but also the dollar defence mechanism. L2–L3 importance.
🌍 OPEC+
OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April – restoring part of the voluntary June 2023 cuts. The decision was taken before the Hormuz blockade escalation. In this context, 206,000 b/d is a symbolic gesture. If the blockade returned in full force, OPEC+ capacity would not save the situation.
Lithuania and the Baltics
Budget deliberations: The government is discussing the revised 2026 budget draft on Friday. Second reading in the Seimas – next week. A 2027–2029 three-year plan has been outlined. Growing energy expenditures are increasing the deficit.
NATO and defence budget: The Baltic states voted in the EU for strengthening the defence budget. Kojala emphasises: even opponents of the Iran conflict should defend NATO’s integrity. Vilnius, Tallinn, Riga – for all three NATO is an existential issue.
Energy: Lithuania has completed its disconnection from Russia’s gas system. The Klaipėda LNG terminal is operating, but prices are high due to the Middle East blockade. If oil stays high – energy restrictions will return in autumn.
Where They Disagree – Analytical Battles
Arthur Hayes vs. Michael Howell – liquidity and BTC
Hayes (optimistic): 2026 = erosion of the fiat currency system through central banks. BTC $80–100k by year end. Liquidity redistributes, but part of it flows into crypto as compensation.
Howell (pessimistic on BTC): Liquidity cycle peak was Q4 2025. 2026 = US liquidity decline (perhaps China will compensate). Strong dollar + risk aversion + liquidity contraction = everything risky falls. Bitcoin is a liquidity instrument, not an inflation hedge. The halving myth – forget it.
Trigger: May FOMC tone. If the Fed holds “higher for longer” – Hayes is right. If it returns to QE signals – Howell is right. June inflation data will be decisive.
Lyn Alden vs. Ben Cowen – market cycle 2026
Alden (recession risk): “Chaos flywheel” – energy inflation + labour market slowdown = stagflation risk. April jobs report (NFP) approaching zero. Cumulative impact – not a single shock, but a mechanism.
Cowen (cycle model): 2026 mid-year model: February – bottom, March – high, April – down. BTC sub-$60k soon, perhaps $40–50k in autumn. S&P 500 – similar structure.
Synthesis: They are talking about different time horizons. Alden – macro (18+ months), Cowen – cycle (4–6 weeks). If both are right: short-term shocks (Cowen) + long-term structural decline (Alden).
Cycles Update
Global liquidity cycle (Howell): Peak – probably Q4 2025. Now the start of a decline. US liquidity down, China may compensate. Next cycle bottom – second half of 2026 or 2027. ~60-month wave structure.
Hegemonic cycle (L1): US in late stage – debt growth, dollar decentralisation pressure, energy flow defence. Hormuz blockade = existential challenge to this model. If the US cannot protect energy flow, dollar hegemony weakens faster than expected. Trump’s tactic: threat to Iran + maintaining relationship with Saudi Arabia = energy control without direct war.
De-dollarisation pace (Gromen): Since June 2022 gold has been growing above oil price in ratio terms – Gromen’s “barometer.” If Iranian oil is fully removed from the dollar system, the oil-to-gold ratio will fundamentally change. Precedent: the 2011–2012 realignment.
Watch Next Week
- Ceasefire expiry (April 22) – if no agreement, the Hormuz blockade returns, oil spikes, inflation rises, the Fed faces a dilemma.
- FOMC May meeting (May 6–7) – the Fed’s first official response to the energy shock. Key words on the inflation target and the pace of quantitative tightening (QT).
- Ukraine front developments – if Russia breaks through in the Kupyansk area, that is a signal of a long war. Ukrainian advances – the opposite signal.
- Trump–Xi meeting (planned for April) – tariff negotiations, the Taiwan question, the de-coupling pace signal.
- BTC sub-$60k and S&P 6,150 – if both levels break, Cowen’s cycle model is confirmed, Howell’s liquidity thesis kicks in.
- Seimas budget vote (~April 18) – if it passes smoothly, a stability signal; if not – a political storm over energy expenditures.
Sources: Trading Economics, Reuters, Kyiv Independent, Bloomberg, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bankless, Substack (Arthur Hayes, Lyn Alden, Michael Howell), LRT, Delfi, Atlantic Council, Kpler, EIA.
This is not investment advice. Analysis is based on public sources and analytical models – scenarios remain probabilistic.