Debt, liquidity, M2, central banks, interest rates, debt cycles.
Until now my base map was simple: the top of the crypto cycle arrives in summer. July. Together with the SpaceX IPO, one last ignition of risk appetite, a big name, big noise and a neatly packaged story about a new stage for capital markets. That picture is still alive. But it needs a correction. … Read more
Druckenmiller has one of the best lines about markets. It does not matter whether you are right or wrong. What matters is how much you make when you are right, and how much you lose when you are wrong. I add my own footnote to this. If I am wrong about timing, I can still … Read more
Here I am. Here is what I think. I know how it sounds. This article is an attempt to gather, in one place, the theses I was already drafting before unwind.wtf, back when I was sending letters to friends privately. Not about tomorrow. Not about next week. About what assembles itself over the coming months. … Read more
150 years ago, an Ohio farmer who had lost everything in a financial panic sat down at his table and drew a chart. The chart contained the years when markets would rise, the years when they would fall, and the years when panic would arrive. From 1875 to 2059. In pencil. On paper. Academics still … Read more
On Easter morning people speak of resurrection. I speak of capitalism. The metaphor is not accidental — the system we are accustomed to periodically declaring dead repeats the same movement with astonishing patience: it falls, it breaks, and it returns. Different, but it returns. This text is about mechanics. About a structure identified a hundred … Read more
Sharks On April 9, 2026, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. One sentence from that piece hasn’t left my mind: “The next generation of financial innovation must be built on American rails, American institutions, and American dollars.” American rails. Not European. Not Chinese. American. Bessent urged Congress to … Read more
The 18.6-Year Cycle: Land, Credit and the Moon’s Mysterious Connection In 2007 I was twenty-three. I took out a loan of unimaginable size and bought my first home. Half a year later I was standing in a shop counting coins — would there be enough to pay for my groceries. A car and fuel were … Read more
We’ve written about cycles before. Kondratiev waves, the hegemonic cycle, the Benner window, the liquidity sine wave. All useful as a map – you can see where you’ve been, you can see where the system is heading over the long term. But one question remains: how do you know where you are right now? The … Read more
SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC for an IPO. April 1, $1.75 trillion valuation, $75 billion offering, targeting June. If it goes through, this will be the largest IPO in history. Larger than Aramco, larger than Alibaba, larger than anything ever listed anywhere. The question is not how much, but why now and who benefits. … Read more
Markets are falling. Economic forecasts are darkening. Global trade is collapsing under a wave of tariffs. And against this backdrop, more and more serious analysts aren’t talking about an approaching disaster — they’re talking about the final rally. A strong one, fast one, euphoric one. A rally that’ll come before the crash, not after it. … Read more
Every bubble cycle ends the same way: not just with prices down 70 percent, but with rules that change who gets to play and how. That isn’t a side effect. It’s the main operation. 2026 Q4–2028: The Shakeout and the Institutional Operation This is the phase where leverage gets flushed (wave after wave), bounces deceive, … Read more
One story keeps coming back to me. Isaac Newton, one of the most brilliant minds in history, invested in the South Sea Company bubble of 1720. He sold early at a profit. Then, watching the stock double and triple, he bought back in at the top. He lost a fortune that would be worth several … Read more