Debt, liquidity, M2, central banks, interest rates, debt cycles.
We’ve written about cycles before. Kondratiev waves, the hegemonic cycle, the Benner window, the liquidity sine wave. All useful as a map – you can see where you’ve been, you can see where the system is heading over the long term. But one question remains: how do you know where you are right now? The … Read more
SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC for an IPO. April 1, $1.75 trillion valuation, $75 billion offering, targeting June. If it goes through, this will be the largest IPO in history. Larger than Aramco, larger than Alibaba, larger than anything ever listed anywhere. The question is not how much, but why now and who benefits. … Read more
Markets are falling. Economic forecasts are darkening. Global trade is collapsing under a wave of tariffs. And against this backdrop, more and more serious analysts aren’t talking about an approaching disaster — they’re talking about the final rally. A strong one, fast one, euphoric one. A rally that’ll come before the crash, not after it. … Read more
Every bubble cycle ends the same way: not just with prices down 70 percent, but with rules that change who gets to play and how. That isn’t a side effect. It’s the main operation. 2026 Q4–2028: The Shakeout and the Institutional Operation This is the phase where leverage gets flushed (wave after wave), bounces deceive, … Read more
One story keeps coming back to me. Isaac Newton, one of the most brilliant minds in history, invested in the South Sea Company bubble of 1720. He sold early at a profit. Then, watching the stock double and triple, he bought back in at the top. He lost a fortune that would be worth several … Read more