2026–2030: A Regime Switch, Not Just a Chain of Events

Why So Much Chaos Right Now

Chaos emerges when several cycles running at different tempos converge at the same point in time. That’s when the system starts to “crack” — you see risk-on and risk-off simultaneously, euphoria and fear at once.

I think of it as several clocks in one room: usually they tick at different rhythms, but now they’ve all suddenly started pointing to the same zone of the year. When that happens, you don’t get one clear trend — you get several at once.

The Main Cycles Converging Now

The Kitchin cycle (3–5 years) — the business inventory and order cycle. The economy overstocks, then destocks, and the whole process repeats. We’re currently at a point where this cycle is turning: either a small slowdown, or a small recovery — depending on how the monetary environment behaves.

The Juglar cycle (7–11 years) — investment in equipment and infrastructure. Companies and countries decide whether to expand capacity. After 2020–2021, a major wave of investment began: semiconductors, AI infrastructure, defense, energy. This wave is not yet exhausted, which means demand for industrial metals, energy, and capital goods will remain elevated.

The Kondratiev wave (45–60 years) — this is not just a cycle, but an entire era: energy, industry, demographics, innovation. Here, not only prices change, but also how we produce, consume, and live. We’ve passed the railroad era, the electricity era, the oil-and-automobile era, the computer-and-internet era. Now we’re entering the era of digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and energy transformation.

The 18.6-year real estate rhythm — the land and property cycle, which works economically as a massive emotional amplifier. When property rises, everyone feels “rich,” borrows against home value, spends more, invests more boldly. When property stalls or falls — everyone suddenly turns conservative, fears debt, cuts spending. The real estate cycle correlates with credit expansion, because property is usually the largest asset and largest liability in the average person’s life.

The Benner cycle — an empirical observation that crowd behavior and price formations repeat at roughly predictable intervals. Not mechanically, but as tendencies: panic years, recovery years, peak years. This cycle has shown notable correlations for over 150 years.

Generational cycles (Strauss–Howe) — this isn’t just economics, but sociology. Generational types shift society’s mood, politics, and values. We are currently in the Crisis phase — similar to the 1930s and 1940s. Old institutions are being questioned, old contracts rewritten, old leaders stop working, and new generations emerge to build a new order.

When all these “clocks” align in time, you get a noise zone — simultaneously you see a parabola and a collapse, the euphoria of innovation and regulatory fear, the old system trying to maintain control, and the new one trying to break through.

And then the person naturally asks: okay, so what is actually happening here?

What Is Actually Happening Now

A regime switch. Not an event, not a crisis, not a crash — but a fundamental rewrite of the rules of the game. The last such rewrite happened in 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window and the Bretton Woods system collapsed. Before that — 1944, when the dollar became the world’s reserve currency. Before that — the 1930s, when the global financial architecture was reshaped after the Great Depression.

These aren’t just crises. They are moments when the system itself changes — what money is, how it’s issued, who controls it, what serves as collateral, and what are the rules of the game for decades ahead.

We are entering exactly such a moment. And those who understand it as “just volatility” or “just a correction” are likely to be surprised when they realize the rules of the game have changed.

The 2026 Peak: While Rising, Preparation for the Rewrite Unfolds

My core idea is simple: when prices are rising, many imagine that “a revolution is happening.” In reality, what’s usually happening is preparation for a rewrite.

During a rise, the same set of pieces falls into place: the narrative — “new era,” “institutions are coming,” “regulation is resolved.” Appetite strengthens — “this is just the beginning,” “you’re not too late yet.” Leverage grows — “I’ll take a bit more, it’s going up.” Products appear: ETFs, structures, “institutional access.” And the belief that “this time it’s different.”

During a market rise, everyone becomes an analyst — a chart confirming the thesis can be found in five minutes, a “long-term thesis” appears on its own, and everyone starts talking about “fundamentals” which, curiously, were not mentioned six months ago.

All of this is a sign of a maturing peak, not a confirmation that it’s “just the beginning.” But we’re not there yet — there’s still too much skepticism and too much “hangover” from previous cycles. And a hangover is not the final culmination. A hangover is more often a precursor to “one more” last party.

The IPO Wave: When Icons Go Public, the Peak Is Near

One of the strongest signals that a peak is approaching is not a chart pattern or technical indicator. It’s a wave of iconic company IPOs.

When Stripe, OpenAI, SpaceX, and companies of similar caliber start talking about IPOs, it usually doesn’t mean “the beginning of growth” — it means an attempt to exit at the top, when investor appetite is at its maximum and valuations are almost unquestioned.

IPOs typically don’t happen when a company most needs capital, but when the market most wants to pay. The founders and early investors know the business better than anyone. And when they choose to sell — it’s worth paying attention to that signal.

This doesn’t mean everything collapses immediately after an IPO. It means the window for extracting maximum value is open — and smart money takes advantage of that window. The 2021 IPO wave was a near-perfect indicator of the cycle top: after SPAC mania, record valuations, and the “everything will keep going up” sentiment — the correction came.

If the IPO wave doesn’t materialize in 2026 — either because markets get nervous early, or because companies choose to stay private — that shifts the timeline. But if it does happen, it’s one more data point pointing to the same conclusion: 2026 is a peak zone, not the start of a new decade-long leg up.

The difference between smart money and the crowd isn’t information — it’s the willingness to act when the signal comes, even if “everyone says it’s going up.” Exiting early may mean leaving some upside on the table. Exiting too late means becoming exit liquidity for those who left earlier.

If major IPOs happen in 2026, ask yourself: who is selling, and to whom? The answer is usually revealing.

But it’s also possible that the IPO wave comes — and the market absorbs it and continues rising. That scenario exists. It would mean the stimulus is stronger than the cycle, or that the timeline has shifted. In that case, the axis may be too early.

Where Trump Fits In

A systemic rewrite often requires three qualities that many leaders lack: tolerance for conflict, rapid decision-pushing, and the willingness to pressure allies — without pretending everything will be pleasant.

Trump has an advantage: he’s not afraid to be unpleasant. In a period of crisis and rewrite, that sometimes becomes a tool.

His logic is simple: Europe needs to pay more seriously for security, industry needs to return closer to home, America needs to maintain the dollar center by upgrading infrastructure, and the rules need to let big money operate. Because otherwise, hegemony hollows out.

The risks are obvious: such a style also means unpredictability, allies losing trust, a trade war escalating beyond the plan, and domestic economic pain becoming politically unsustainable. But as a systemic rewrite tool — it’s a working instrument. Not pleasant. Working.

Why the Dollar Isn’t Going Anywhere

There are four things that make the dollar irreplaceable as a reserve currency right now: deep and liquid capital markets, a rule of law that does not change depending on who is in power, a military that can protect this order, and Treasuries as the world’s neutral collateral.

Today, nobody else has all four together.

China? A massive economy, but closed capital markets, a controlled currency, unpredictable regulation. If the CCP decides to change the rules tomorrow — it changes them. Nobody can contest that. That’s not a foundation of trust for global collateral.

The euro? A currency without a single fiscal authority. Twenty different countries, different bonds, different risks. There’s no “single euro treasury” that everyone can run to in a crisis. The system is unstable under major stress — as we saw in the 2010–2012 euro crisis.

A BRICS currency? A group of countries without a common legal system, without a shared culture of trust, without a common interest. India and China are geopolitical competitors, Russia and China are tactical partners but not strategic ones. This is not a foundation for a reserve currency.

Yes, dedollarization is happening at the margins. Bilateral trade between countries is increasingly being conducted in local currencies. China is actively expanding the digital yuan. But segmentation doesn’t mean displacing the dollar — it means the dollar remains the “default” system, while other systems become regional alternatives.

When people say “the end of the dollar,” I think of the British pound. It didn’t die suddenly. It slowly slid from center to periphery over decades. But the pound didn’t have what the dollar has now — infrastructure that adapts. Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, but the dollar didn’t fall. It transitioned to a new regime. Now another update is underway. Not an ending.

Stablecoins, T-Bills, and the Dollar Update

If America wants to maintain the dollar as the global center, it must maintain trust and the financing machine — the Treasuries market as the world’s collateral.

Here’s where stablecoins enter. The largest dollar stablecoins — USDT and USDC — collectively hold over $100 billion in US Treasuries. Every time someone mints a new USDT or USDC, the issuer buys T-bills. This is demand for American debt — organic, not geopolitically motivated, arising simply because people want to use dollars on blockchains.

America’s strategic interest is clear: more stablecoin adoption = more T-bill demand = cheaper debt financing = longer-running dollar hegemony. That’s why the GENIUS Act — a stablecoin regulation bill — is not just a crypto regulation story. It’s the architecture of the next version of the dollar system.

But there’s a friction point: banks. Traditional banks earn on deposits — they take your money and lend it at 5–10%. If platforms offer 4–5% yield on stablecoins, people will naturally pull money out of banks.

That’s why the debate over stablecoin “yield” is the question: who will be the new world’s “money account” — a bank deposit or a stablecoin wallet?

New Order: When Convenience Becomes Control

Blockchain, stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and digital identity are today being sold as innovation, freedom, convenience, financial inclusion. Part of that is true — it really is convenient, faster, and cheaper. But simultaneously, a control infrastructure is being built under the “freedom” narrative. And after the crisis — when the rules are rewritten — this infrastructure will become an instrument of power. Look at actions, not words.

A few examples. In America, the infrastructure is being built under the “free market” label. The result is similar. The path — different.

Europe is going more directly. The European Central Bank is planning a digital euro pilot from 2027, with a possible first issuance around 2029. CBDC — a central bank digital currency that would flow directly from the central bank into your wallet without bank intermediaries — would mean the central bank sees every transaction in real time.

The United Kingdom is testing Digital Identity — a digital identity that links personal documents, financial accounts, and public services into one system.

China? China simply did it. The digital yuan works. Digital identity works. Social credit elements — work. China is an open experiment showing where all of this leads. The West looks and says: “we won’t do that.” And then does exactly the same — just with more PR.

And then the crisis comes. Markets fall, banks are stressed, people are scared. And the government comes out and says: “We’ll help.” As always. As in 2008. As in 2020.

But this time “help” will look different. Not through banks — through stablecoins or CBDC. Directly into your digital wallet. Fast, convenient, without intermediaries. And people will be grateful.

But with that convenience comes infrastructure that allows things that today sound like science fiction.

Spending limits. Your digital euro has an expiration date — if you don’t spend it within three months, it “burns.” This isn’t theory — China has already tested this with digital yuan vouchers.

Behavioral programming. Your digital wallet simply won’t allow purchasing certain goods — not because the seller refused, but because the system automatically blocked the transaction. AI decided, blockchain recorded, wallet blocked.

This is not a conspiracy theory. This is the logical conclusion of the infrastructure being built. The internet also came as convenience — and then advertising, tracking, and social scoring came with it. Technology integrates into everything. So does control.

Today — the GENIUS Act, which “just regulates stablecoins.” Tomorrow — “atomic payments,” which allow receiving a salary in real time for each completed task. Sounds fantastic? But it also means the system knows exactly what you’re doing, when, how much, and to whom. The day after — digital identity linked to wallet, linked to health data, linked to taxes. Everything in one place. Convenient. And completely transparent — but not to you. To those who can see.

I’m not saying this is bad or good. I’m saying it’s happening. And those who don’t see it will be surprised. Those who do see it — can at least decide how to live with it.

Gold: The Old Neutral Collateral

Gold is having a renaissance — not because the world loves gold, but because the world is losing trust in other collateral. Central banks are buying — not at the margin, but systematically. China, India, Turkey, Poland, the Czech Republic. Countries that have seen what happens when foreign reserves get frozen.

The story of Russian reserves frozen in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine sent a clear signal to every central bank that holds dollars abroad: this can happen to you too. The response — buying gold that no one can freeze, because it sits in your own vault.

Gold is neutral. It doesn’t depend on any single country’s goodwill. It can’t be turned off by a server. It can’t be frozen by a court. In a world where financial infrastructure is becoming increasingly weaponized, gold is the one thing that stays outside the system.

Silver follows a similar logic, but with an additional industrial component: green energy, electronics, medicine. The silver shortage is structural — demand from solar panels, batteries, and electronics is growing, while supply growth is limited. This creates a multi-year tailwind regardless of macro.

The Timeline: What Comes When

2025–2026 Q3 — rising, products appearing, narrative strengthening. Products are convenient. The narrative is strong. The IPO wave — if it comes, it’s a serious peak indicator. The masses believe “everything only goes up.”

2026 Q4–2028 — exiting through the narrow door. Those who had a plan — exit. Those who were leveraged — become liquidity. Flush after flush, fake bounces, fatigue, withdrawal. Rules: safeguards, compliance, standards. Only what actually works remains.

2029–2031 — the morning after the storm. Everything stabilizes and starts running on new rails. Stablecoin rails — everyday life, tokenization — the norm. Gold — the “backup layer” between systems. Silver shortage continues. Big money moves quietly and systematically. A new cycle begins not with fireworks, but with grinding — when the infrastructure is already nailed down and simply starts working.

What to Do With All This

This is not investment advice. This is a map. Maps don’t tell you what to do — they show what the terrain looks like.

What I take from this map: we are in a transitional moment between two regimes. The old rules are still working — but their logic is weakening. New rules are being written — but they haven’t fully come into force yet. This transition zone is the most dangerous for those who think “nothing has changed” and most interesting for those who see what’s being built.

If the IPO wave happens — it’s a peak signal. If the stablecoin legislation passes — watch who benefits from it. If CBDC starts rolling out — read the fine print, not the press release. If gold keeps rising — ask why central banks are buying, not why retail isn’t.

The regime switch doesn’t happen overnight. It takes years. But in those years, some people will be positioned for the new world before it arrives. And others will understand what happened only after the fact.

I’d rather be among the first group.

Appendix: Sources and Further Reading

For those who want to dig deeper, not just take my word for it:

EXPAND SOURCES

Nikolai Kondratiev — long economic wave theory (Kondratiev waves).
Joseph Kitchin — inventory cycle (Kitchin cycle).
Clement Juglar — investment cycle (Juglar cycle).
Homer Hoyt — 18.6-year real estate cycle (land value cycle, Chicago).
Samuel Benner — Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices (1875). Empirical cycle observations.
Strauss and Howe — The Fourth Turning. Generational cycles and Crisis phase.
Ray Dalio — Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. The big cycle of empires.
1920s cycle — four similar economic booms (Kondratiev waves).
GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) — signed into law May 19, 2025. Requires 100% reserve backing by T-bills or equivalent liquid instruments, with primary issuance around 2029. ECB official information
China’s digital yuan (e-CNY) — experiments with spending limits and expiration dates since 2020. Shenzhen, Beijing, and other cities.
UK Digital Identity — tested since 2022 (GOV.UK Wallet pilot).
USDT and USDC — collectively hold over $100 billion in US Treasuries (Tether Q1 2025 report, Circle reserve reports).

Current actions

GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) — signed into law May 19, 2025. Requires 100% reserve in T-bills or equivalent liquid assets prior to issuance.
China’s digital yuan (e-CNY) — experiments with spending limits and expiration dates since 2020. Shenzhen, Beijing and other cities.
UK Digital Identity — tested since 2022 (GOV.UK Wallet pilot).
ECB digital euro pilot planned from 2027, with possible first issuance around 2029. ECB official information

If this text prompted you to think differently, pass it on. — Meška, UNWIND