Hormuz ceasefire ends tomorrow. The oil shock is pushing global liquidity down – and central banks haven’t decided what to do yet.
⚡ Hormuz: ceasefire ends April 22 – the biggest oil supply disruption in history
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran ends tomorrow. Iran is not sending a delegation to Islamabad. A US warship on Sunday seized an Iranian container in the Gulf of Oman. Both sides accuse each other of violating the ceasefire. This is not a diplomatic incident – it’s a structural market question.
The International Energy Agency already calls the Hormuz crisis the biggest oil supply disruption in history. The strait controls about 20% of all global oil and LNG supply. The blockade has been ongoing since February 28, when the US and Israel launched an air operation against Iran and killed Khamenei. Every $10 oil price rise takes away about 3% of global financial liquidity (Michael Howell). And liquidity has been declining since Q4 2025 – before this war began.
The mechanism is simple: an energy shock transfers money from the financial sector to the real economy, tightens credit conditions, and pressures risk asset prices. If the ceasefire collapses tomorrow – the oil shock restarts, the liquidity crisis deepens, and central banks face a stagflationary dilemma with no good solution.
🇺🇸 Fed – “Wait and Watch”
March 18 FOMC: rate unchanged. Powell signaling neither cut nor hike – “current position meets targets.” But behind the scenes, the Fed is already buying about $40bln/month in Treasury securities. Lyn Alden calls this the “gradual printing” era – unofficial, undeclared quantitative easing (QE), but functioning as such. War financing needs and growing deficits make this policy increasingly hard to stop.
Arthur Hayes identifies two scenarios that would force the Fed to print aggressively: AI-driven labor market deterioration causing distressed assets to appear on bank balance sheets, or a war deficit that markets cannot absorb without Federal Reserve intervention. Both conditions are developing simultaneously.
🇪🇺 ECB – “Layered Shocks” Trap
Christine Lagarde on April 20 in Berlin spoke about the Hormuz crisis as the “biggest oil supply disruption in history” per the IEA. A decision is approaching (approximately May 1), but the direction is unclear: CNBC on April 16 wrote about the ECB facing “layered shocks.” Classic stagflationary dilemma – raise rates and squeeze the economy, or cut and risk losing control of inflation. The Italy–Germany bond spread – an indicator to watch.
Important step: from April 25, the EU ban on short-term Russian LNG contracts takes effect. This directly affects energy prices in Europe and ECB inflation calculations.
Synthesis
The Fed and ECB are operating under different conditions. The Fed has the dollar as global reserve currency buffer – it can allow inflation to slightly exceed the target. The ECB doesn’t. Divergence implies potential capital flow from euro to dollar or gold. But DXY is weakening – showing the market is betting on the war deficit printing narrative, which is overriding the “dollar as safe haven” logic.
🛢️ Middle East / Energy
Ceasefire ends April 22. Iran did not send a delegation to Islamabad. A US warship on Sunday seized an Iranian container in the Gulf of Oman – Tehran demands its immediate release. Both sides blame each other. If the war resumes, oil price will spike again, the OPEC+ increase will be physically neutralized, and Europe, Japan, and South Korea will face a new energy shock. Structural fact that remains even in the “peace” scenario: Hormuz as global infrastructure demonstrated its vulnerability to the entire world. That won’t change.
🇺🇦 Ukraine
The Easter truce collapsed completely. Ukrainian military recorded nearly 7,700 Russian violations in 32 hours – more than 6,000 drone attacks and over 1,300 artillery strikes. The diplomatic front stood still: US negotiations on Ukraine effectively paused, Washington’s attention focused on Iran. Russia demands Donbas – the positions remain far apart.