Market Moment
Records reversed. As of the evening (US trading still under way) the S&P 500 stood around 7,800 points (-0.2%), the Nasdaq around 27,510 (-0.3%), the Dow Jones around 51,210 (-0.6%). Yesterday the first two closed at all-time highs.
Bonds squeeze again. The 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.73% intraday, the highest since May 2002, while the 10-year returned to roughly 5.29%. Yesterday’s pullback lasted a single day.
Dollar up, gold down. The dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.5% to roughly 102.4 and has strengthened 3.6% over the month. Gold fell about 1.2% to roughly $4,110–4,140 an ounce, a rare case where the search for safety leads into the dollar rather than the metal.
Oil stays high. Brent around $101, WTI around $90. The price holds not because of a supply shortage but because of attacks on tankers in Hormuz.
Bitcoin after liquidations. Around $83,300, down 2.6% on the day, with about $696 million of crypto positions liquidated. Year on year, bitcoin is roughly 31% lower.
Lithuania and the Baltics
Troops to the Kaliningrad border. Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas and Interior Minister Martynas Katelynas announced that around 100 soldiers will reinforce the roughly 275 km border with Kaliningrad until 16 October. The reasons: yesterday’s incident on the Latvia–Belarus border and signals that Russia may declare mobilisation, with draft evaders possibly trying to enter Lithuania illegally. Unlike the Belarus border, there is no fence here.
Lifting the nuclear ban. On Tuesday the Seimas approved, after a first reading, an amendment to Article 137 of the Constitution that would lift the ban on stationing weapons of mass destruction in Lithuania (106 for, 18 against, 6 abstentions). The final vote is scheduled for 12 January 2027. Opposition leader Laurynas Kasčiūnas says the current provision prevents NATO from including Lithuania in nuclear deterrence planning; Nemunas Dawn is calling for a referendum.
Budget pressure builds. The Coalition Council will discuss the 2027 budget and fuel prices on Thursday. According to the deputy finance minister, refunding part of the diesel excise to hauliers would cost the budget €26 million. At the same time, a renewed collective agreement raises the public-sector base amount by €45, while some politicians criticise the decision to allocate a smaller share of the Sodra surplus to pensions.
Armed men on the Latvian border. Masked, armed people from Belarus pushed around 20 migrants towards Latvia and threatened soldiers, later entered Latvian territory themselves, damaged an electrical panel and stole surveillance cameras. The Latvian military calls it a hybrid attack; investigators do not rule out an organised crime group.
Europe
France fires the M51.3. On Tuesday the submarine Le Vigilant off Brittany test-fired the upgraded strategic ballistic missile for the first time, without a warhead. The Kremlin calls it proof of Europe’s militarisation.
European Parliament to China. The EP adopted critical recommendations on relations with China: balanced trade, protection of human rights, closer coordination with the US. This adds to the Paris and Berlin push for new trade defence measures mentioned yesterday.
Ukraine
The massive strike came. Overnight Russia launched about 130 drones, 48 cruise missiles and an unspecified number of ballistic missiles at Kyiv and a dozen other regions; air defence downed 161 targets. At least 19 civilians were killed, including four children, and around 60 wounded. In Pryluky, Chernihiv region, an apartment block was destroyed and nine people died.
The warning proved right. Zelensky said the day before that intelligence was tracking preparations for a massive attack and asked allies for any air defence they could spare. 48 cruise missiles in a single night show that Russia has rebuilt its stocks.
Shadow of mobilisation. According to Russian opposition outlets and RFE/RL’s Current Time, Moscow may announce a new mobilisation wave after the State Duma elections; the electronic summons register and the exit ban are already in place. This is the backdrop to Vilnius’s decision on troops at the Kaliningrad border.
Geopolitics
Hormuz: two stories. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Athens that Iran has “completely lost” control of the strait and that oil flows are nearly back to pre-war levels. An Iranian general claims the opposite. British maritime monitors recorded nine attacks in the first week of October, half of September’s total.
Washington softens its tone. Vice President Vance told Reuters that Iran should “meaningfully” reduce its enrichment capacity, not abandon it entirely. That is a departure from Trump’s “no enrichment”. Tehran replies that the US blockade must be lifted first.
Putin offers to mediate. The Russian leader told Tehran he is ready to help resolve the Middle East conflict. According to US intelligence, Moscow is at the same time helping Iran target US military assets, so the mediator is also a party to the conflict.
Plague in Irkutsk. The WHO is demanding that Russia explain the death of a 28-year-old lab technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute from pneumonia “of unknown origin” and a possible second case. Moscow says it has registered no plague; the White House says it does not believe the case is linked to biological weapons.
OPEC+ raises output. According to sources, eight OPEC+ countries considered an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November. Since April quotas have already risen by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, yet Brent holds above $100 because the risk lies not in production but in shipping routes.
Central Banks
Fed minutes: one more hike. The minutes of the September meeting show that most officials see another rate hike as “likely appropriate by year end”, though decisions will depend on the data. In September the Fed raised its rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023. Dallas Fed President Logan thinks two hikes are needed; Williams and Jefferson favour waiting.
IPO Radar
SpaceX borrows for chips. SpaceX shares fell about 2.75% on reports that the company is considering a $40 billion debt issue to buy Nvidia chips. AI infrastructure financing is shifting from equity to debt in the same week the 30-year yield hits a 24-year high.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Coalition Council. Whether the 2027 budget will include a diesel excise refund for hauliers and how it will be funded.
Harmony Link signing. The €900 million Lithuania–Poland interconnector agreement in Vilnius, and whether at least one stage will be brought forward.
30-year yield at 5.73%. If that level breaks, equity records become harder to justify.
A Russian mobilisation decree. Any official signal from the Kremlin would directly shape the Kaliningrad border regime.
Attacks in Hormuz. Whether the pace of nine attacks a week continues despite Rubio’s claims of an open strait.
Meška’s Commentary
The Seimas takes a step towards stationing nuclear weapons, soldiers line up at the Kaliningrad border, and on the same day the Fed writes that rates will rise further. Security is getting more expensive? No, this is security we finance with borrowed money at a time when borrowing is getting more expensive worldwide.
The dollar rises together with US yields while gold falls: the market is running into the dollar, not away from it. As long as that holds, the hegemon still has credit, and Vilnius’s decisions, from the base to the nuclear umbrella, are being built on exactly that credit.