Market Pulse
Fresh records. As of the evening (US trading still open), the S&P 500 sits near 7,827 (+0.7%) and the Nasdaq near 27,650 (+0.6%). Both indices hit all-time highs. The Dow is around 51,530 (+0.5%).
Three stocks, a fifth of the market. Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft now make up more than 21% of the S&P 500, the highest three-stock concentration on record. Nvidia’s market cap is closing in on $6 trillion. Marvell rose about 8% after lifting guidance, and Constellation Energy jumped about 13% on a $4.3 billion nuclear power deal with Google.
Bonds catch their breath. The 10-year US yield fell 9 basis points to roughly 5.26%, the 30-year to 5.64%. Yesterday’s highest level since 2002 has acted as a ceiling for now, not a floor.
Oil flat, gold up. WTI near $89, Brent near $101, with the gap between them still above $11. Gold gained almost 1% to around $4,196 an ounce.
Bitcoin drifts. Around $85,600, nearly flat on the day, about 8% higher over the month and about 31% lower over the year.
Lithuania & Baltics
A permanent US base. After Trump said on Monday that Washington would consider a permanent base in Lithuania, President Nausėda called it “very good news” and pitched Lithuania as a regional hub for US forces. Prime Minister Sinkevičius told the Defence Ministry to work out what conditions Lithuania could offer and confirmed the country is ready to cover all the costs. Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas says no concrete decisions have been made yet.
The state auditor is worried about debt. Auditor General Irena Segalovičienė says the 2027 general government deficit could exceed 3% of GDP, and the 1.5% defence exemption is nearly used up. This year’s deficit is 2.8% of GDP, with debt at 45.4%. In her words, debt growth is the biggest threat, and there is no policy for balancing the books in the future.
Parliament votes down three proposals. Conservative MP Arvydas Anušauskas’s bid to cut Russian citizens’ transit through Lithuania from 24 to 6 hours failed (34 for, 13 against, 25 abstaining) because the limit is set by EU regulation. Violations rose from 360 to 1,493 in a year. Parliament also won’t consider a reduced 12% VAT on heating, and won’t require parties to disclose candidates’ criminal records.
Harmony Link deal on Thursday. Lithuania and Poland will sign the connection-point agreement for the €900 million-plus power link in Vilnius. Testing has been pulled forward to mid-2030, but the overall completion date is unchanged.
Kulbergs to form Latvia’s government. President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked Andris Kulbergs to put together a new cabinet and hopes to see it in place by November 18. United List won 35.3% of the vote and 41 of 100 seats. Kulbergs is bringing four themes to coalition talks: fiscal discipline, security, growth and public administration reform.
Europe
AfD chairs a state parliament for the first time. In Saxony-Anhalt, 35-year-old Tobias Rausch was elected parliament speaker (48 for, 29 against). Four votes came from outside AfD and BSW ranks, which makes talk of the first far-right regional government since 1945 more real.
Five Orlen executives detained in Poland. The ABW security agency suspects them of artificially cutting fuel prices before the autumn 2023 election. Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek calls it squandering state assets to keep Law and Justice in power.
Paris and Berlin take aim at China. France and Germany are pushing for new EU trade defence measures against Chinese imports. At the same time, Sweden is deploying a Patriot system in Poland, and Warsaw is announcing a $26 billion civil defence plan plus Patriot batteries near the Ukrainian border.
Ukraine
Zelensky warns of a mass strike. The president urged allies to hand over any air defence they can spare. Over the past day Russian strikes across Ukraine killed 13 and injured 104, and a hospital in Kryvyi Rih was damaged.
The war moves to sea. Drones hit merchant ships in the Black Sea roughly 110 km off the Bulgarian coast, killing at least one person. The same evening a Russian shadow fleet tanker caught fire near Sochi, possibly hit by naval drones.
Ukraine hits oil. The Moscow region’s largest oil facility, the Volodarsk pumping hub, went up in flames after a massive drone attack. A new poll shows 62% of Ukrainians are ready to hold out as long as it takes, a figure unchanged since July.
Geopolitics
Hormuz: tankers under fire. Unknown projectiles hit three tankers over the weekend, 12 crew were wounded off Oman, and Iranian forces are threatening to target ships that don’t turn back. Tehran rejects US conditions for reopening the strait and is reviewing Washington’s counterproposal.
Bab el-Mandeb flares up. Yemen’s Saudi-backed government launched a broad offensive against the Houthis, including toward Sanaa. More than 270 fighters were killed in a single day. The Houthis threaten to turn Saudi airspace into a “theatre of operations.” Both of the region’s key oil chokepoints are now war zones.
Trump and “let them destroy Los Angeles.” At a Nebraska campaign stop, Trump said Iran could destroy a US city and called it “a very small price.” The White House says he was describing the threat if Iran gets a nuclear weapon. The rhetoric shows the administration framing expensive oil as the price of security.
US and China: no new move. The truce runs to January 10, 2027, but trade envoy Jamieson Greer says tariff cuts on a $60 billion list of goods have no date.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Fed minutes from September. Is there support on the committee for another hike, now that the 10-year yield has just pulled back from 5.35%?
Whether Russia delivers the mass strike. Zelensky’s warning and Russia’s pledge to “intensify” its response point to a high risk of a major attack in the coming nights.
Defence Ministry homework on the base. Will Vilnius put forward a concrete site and funding model, or will it all stay at the level of statements?
Tanker insurance and Brent. If attacks in Hormuz and the Black Sea continue, freight and insurance costs will lift Brent even without a supply disruption.
Harmony Link signing on Thursday. Whether at least one stage of the link gets pulled forward.
The Bear’s Take
Lithuania is offering to pay for a US base on the same day the state auditor says the defence exemption is used up and there is no plan to balance the debt. Security? No, it’s a bill we’re signing without a number on it, while 10-year US borrowing costs more than 5% and eurozone rates are rising.
Markets don’t care: three tech companies hold a fifth of the S&P 500, and two oil chokepoints are burning at once. When concentration is at a record and risk is scattered across the whole map, the bill usually comes due in a single payment.