Market moment
Sunday, markets closed. US stocks ended the week near records: S&P 500 around 7,720, Nasdaq around 27,180. The 10-year Treasury yield holds at 5.28%, so this is not a cheap-money rally.
Oil waits for the Asian open. Brent closed Friday slightly below $100, WTI around $91. There was no trading over the weekend, but the price now has two new pieces of news to absorb: the Houthi strike on an Aramco facility and the OPEC+ decision to change nothing.
Gold and the dollar unchanged. Gold around $4,166 an ounce, the dollar index (DXY) around 102.
Bitcoin stuck. Around $84,700–84,900 on Sunday. Another attempt to hold above $87,000 failed; the market is waiting for Monday.
Lithuania and the Baltics
An expensive winter, an empty treasury. Petrol crossed €2 a litre this week, diesel around €2.40. Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius says earlier excise and VAT cuts blew “huge holes” in the budget without improving much. The government is negotiating relief measures with the European Commission, but no concrete decisions yet.
Austerity on weekends. The government met in extraordinary session on Saturday and Sunday, looking for savings in the 2027 budget. The obstacles are the same: pension indexation and defence commitments. Lithuania already breaches the Maastricht deficit criterion.
A bidding war over benefits in the Seimas. The opposition Dawn of Nemunas (Karolis Neimantas) proposes paying childcare benefit at 150% of salary for the first 12 months. The coalition’s Aušrinė Norkienė has a more modest draft, up to 100%, which already has the support of 89 MPs. Everything returns to the Seimas on 8 December, together with the government’s nearly €770 million family package.
Snaigė goes bankrupt. The Alytus refrigerator plant, the only one of its kind in the Baltics, has filed for bankruptcy; 190 workers will receive redundancy notices. Industrialists’ Confederation president Vidmantas Janulevičius blames Chinese dumping and the closure of former Soviet and Asian markets.
A historic mandate in Latvia. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List won about 35% of the vote and 42 of 100 seats, the most for a single force in the history of the Latvian parliament. The likely coalition with the National Alliance (10) and New Unity (7) would hold 59 seats. In opposition: Latvia First (17) and the Russia-friendly Sovereign Power (15).
Europe
Merz in Kyiv unannounced. The German chancellor arrived by train with his economy minister and a defence and energy business delegation. He pledged long-range weapons and 1,000 interceptors against jet-powered Shaheds, and says Berlin is working with Brussels to speed up Ukraine’s EU accession. But he ties financial support to anti-corruption reforms and keeps pushing the idea of “associate membership”.
French schools on strike. Up to 500 schools will be fully or partly closed on Monday due to protests.
Ukraine
Russia goes after bridges. For the third day running, Kyiv’s bridges over the Dnipro are being hit: the Northern and Southern bridges have been struck six times, and three of six road bridges were fully or partly closed. Two people were injured on the Northern Bridge on Sunday. This fits the “new doctrine” Zelensky described: strikes on logistics to push people out of the city.
Sybiha asks for a response. The foreign minister urges allies to strengthen air defence and sanction Russia’s military industry and those who service it.
Interceptors from Germany. Merz’s 1,000 interceptors directly cover Ukraine’s weakest spot: current models down only about a third of jet-powered drones.
Geopolitics
Houthis claim the Aramco strike. Their spokesman Yahya Saree says the Aramco facility in Riyadh was hit with ballistic missiles and drones. The Saudi-led coalition calls the claims misleading, and there is no official confirmation of the fire’s cause. Gulf oil infrastructure remains an open target.
OPEC+ changes nothing. The seven core members agreed on Sunday to keep November output at September levels. Gulf exports are running at 60–80% of normal because of the US-Israeli war with Iran, so the targets are paper. Next meeting on 1 November.
Hegseth looks to Latin America. The Pentagon chief hinted that some US forces could move from Europe to the Western Hemisphere to fight cartels. No decision yet; the Europe posture review ends in December. Both the permanent base promised to Poland and Baltic security plans depend on that same review.
Clayton becomes AI czar. Trump named Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to lead a new AI task force, which has 120 days to report on risks and opportunities. AI policy is passing from tech entrepreneurs to the security apparatus.
Brazil votes. Lula seeks a fourth term against Flávio Bolsonaro. The last Datafolha poll: 45% vs 40% in the first round, with a 25 October runoff almost unavoidable.
What to watch tomorrow
Oil at the Asian open. The market’s first verdict on the Houthi strike in Riyadh and OPEC+ passivity. Brent above $100 would be a psychological line.
Brazil’s results. Lula’s first-round margin and the real’s reaction to fiscal promises.
Kyiv’s bridges. Whether Russia continues strikes for a fourth day and whether the West responds with anything more than statements.
Lithuania’s budget outline. What the government shows after two extraordinary sessions, and whether a heating compensation plan appears.
Latvia’s coalition talks. How fast Kulbergs forms a government and whether it changes the excise policy that Lithuania calls electoral.
Meška’s comment
The weekend assembled a single picture: an oil facility burns in Riyadh, OPEC+ pretends it is not its problem, and the Lithuanian government spends its weekends looking for heating money with holes in the treasury. An energy shock? No, it is fiscal pressure that runs through the petrol station and the heating bill straight into the budget.
At the same time Washington openly ponders where to move troops out of Europe, while Berlin arrives in Kyiv with interceptors. The shift of the burden onto Europe is already under way; the bill simply arrives when oil costs nearly $100 and US ten-year borrowing exceeds 5%.