Market moment
Saturday, markets closed. US stocks ended the week near records: S&P 500 around 7,720, Nasdaq around 27,180, Dow Jones around 51,146. Friday’s bounce came from a weak labour market, not a strong economy.
Yields stay high. The 10-year US Treasury yield ended the week at 5.28%, the 30-year at 5.57%. The equity rally is happening despite expensive borrowing.
Oil, gold, dollar. Brent closed Friday slightly below $100, WTI around $91, gold around $4,166 an ounce, the dollar index (DXY) around 102. The weekend risk is clear: a fire near an Aramco facility in Riyadh and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.
Bitcoin without direction. Around $84,600 on Saturday. After the jobs data it briefly spiked above $87,000, then fell below $84,000, with liquidations of nearly $600 million. Bitcoin is down about 5% year to date.
Lithuania and the Baltics
An air alert that wasn’t. On Saturday a probable air-threat signal was in force for about 40 minutes in Vilnius county and Ukmergė, and NATO fighters were scrambled. The head of the National Crisis Management Centre says no object was found and the search has been called off; it may have been a flock of birds. Twelve flights at Vilnius airport were affected: one diverted to Kaunas, three cancelled, eight delayed.
Migration protests pass with incidents. Several hundred people protested against mass immigration in Kudirka Square, while a counter-rally of more than a hundred took place across the street. Police recorded several incidents, and one woman was injured. The topic is moving from the street into politics: Interior Minister Katelynas is urging the EU to work more closely with countries of origin on returning migrants.
Nausėda signs a 17-leader letter. Lithuania, together with Italy, Poland, Spain, Latvia, Estonia and others, is urging the Irish presidency to preserve cohesion and agricultural funding in the 2028–2034 EU budget. The letter proposes slower repayment of NextGenerationEU debt and considering targeted joint EU debt instruments.
Latvia picks Kulbergs. SKDS exit poll: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List took about 35.6%, followed by the Trumpist Latvia First (11.3%), the Progressives (11.1%) and the Russia-friendly Sovereign Power / Young Latvians (10.8%). The Greens and Farmers (3.7%) may fall below the 5% threshold. Turnout was about 50%, versus 59% four years ago.
Europe
Von der Leyen: no diesel ban. The Commission president says a ban on US diesel exports is not under consideration. It is an attempt to calm the market after a week in which Europe agreed, under pressure from Washington, to release diesel reserves.
Poland gets a permanent US base. According to presidential aide Marcin Przydacz, Trump gave political approval for a permanent US base in Poland back on 17 September. Location, troop numbers and costs remain unclear; everything depends on the Pentagon’s force posture review, expected in November.
Housing protests in Spain. Thousands took to the streets demanding cheaper housing. With 5% inflation, Spain is becoming the eurozone’s pressure cooker.
Ukraine
Russia’s “new doctrine”. Zelensky says intelligence obtained documents showing Putin ordered strikes on a broader range of civilian targets ahead of winter: logistics, roads, schools, hospitals. The goal, he says, is to push people out of Kyiv and other cities.
The answer runs through oil. Ukraine pledges to step up strikes on Russian oil refineries. This week the Ukrainian-made FP-7 ballistic missile (250 km range) was used in combat for the first time, and the “Vivaldi” counteroffensive in Donbas has, according to Kyiv, retaken about 140 sq km.
Air defence is still the weak spot. Five new interceptor drone models are in development; the two tested so far down only about 30% of jet-powered Shaheds. The 2027 defence budget gap stands at $27 billion.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: open war. On Saturday flames and smoke were seen near an Aramco facility in Riyadh, with no official confirmation of the cause. The Houthis accuse Riyadh of dozens of air strikes on Sanaa. In September Houthi strikes had already set Aramco sites in southern Saudi Arabia ablaze, so Gulf oil infrastructure is now a target from two directions.
Lukoil deal at the peace table. According to The New York Times, US-Russia talks on ending the war have expanded to a deal for Lukoil’s foreign assets worth about $20 billion. Buyers reportedly include Trump donor Todd Boehly and two Middle Eastern groups linked to Witkoff or Kushner. The deal still needs US Treasury approval.
Iran: sanctions stay. Lithuania joined a joint statement by the US and Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) partners on the anniversary of the UN sanctions snapback on Iran. The signatories commit to keep blocking nuclear and missile technology transfers to Tehran.
OPEC+ on Sunday. According to sources, the cartel will leave November output targets unchanged. Actual production is already below target, so the security of Saudi infrastructure matters more to the market than paper numbers.
What to watch tomorrow
OPEC+ meeting (4 October). If the Riyadh fire is linked to a Houthi attack, unchanged targets may look like passivity to the market.
Lithuanian government extraordinary meeting (4 October). Where the Sinkevičius government will find savings: social spending, defence or investment.
Latvia’s final results (4 October). Whether the Greens and Farmers stay out and who Kulbergs forms a coalition with.
Brazil’s presidential election (4 October). Latin America’s largest economy chooses its direction; the real is sensitive to fiscal promises.
Oil open in Asia (5 October morning). The market’s first verdict on the weekend in the Gulf.
Meška’s commentary
The weekend showed what war without a front line looks like. In Vilnius fighters are scrambled over a signal that may have been birds, near Aramco in Riyadh something is burning, and Ukraine’s peace talks increasingly resemble an asset auction. Diplomacy? No, this is a redistribution of energy assets under a peace-deal cover.
For markets it means one thing: the oil risk premium hasn’t gone anywhere, it has just hidden behind G7 reserves. With a 5.28% 10-year yield and 3.8% eurozone inflation, central banks have no room for error, and Lithuania’s budget is already being counted on weekends.