Markets snapshot
– S&P 500 closed Friday at a new record, around 7,580 points, the ninth straight week of gains. The market rises as if geopolitics no longer existed. – Nasdaq finished May up about 8 percent, also new highs. The engine is one, the artificial intelligence (AI) fever. – Dell shares jumped 32 percent, the best day in the company’s history, after a strong AI server report. One company’s numbers pulled the whole tech sector along. – Gold rose to about 4,580 dollars an ounce. Safe-haven demand does not fade even with stocks at highs. – WTI oil fell to about 88 dollars, down about 10 percent on the week. It is a contrast, Iran is restless yet oil cheapens, because the market believes Hormuz will open soon. – Bitcoin held around 73,700 dollars, almost unchanged. – Backdrop: the month’s end with MSCI index rebalancing lifted trading volumes. US inflation is at three-year highs, so rising stocks and talk of tightening sit in the same room.
Lithuania and the Baltics
– Registrų centras: it turned out that the data of foreign affairs minister Kęstutis Budrys was also stolen, an interest from hostile actors is seen. This is no longer an ordinary leak, but a question of how resilient the state’s data infrastructure is. In total an estimated more than 600 thousand records were stolen, the center’s head resigned. – Rating: S&P Global Ratings affirmed Lithuania’s “A/A-1” borrowing rating with a stable outlook. Lenders consider us reliable even at record defense spending, which in 2026 will exceed 5 percent of GDP. – Defense: the spring session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly began in the Seimas, the main focus on defense capabilities. – Energy: Epso-G will take over 63 million euros worth of Amber Grid and Litgrid loans, the consolidation of the networks continues.
Europe
– Malta votes in parliamentary elections, results will be clear soon. – China threatens countermeasures if the EU tightens trade restrictions, the warning came right after the Commission’s session on China policy. Beijing’s trade surplus with the Union keeps growing, so Brussels is weighing new tariffs. – Technology: the EU talks louder and louder about reducing dependence on US technology. An ally? Yes, but Brussels wants to control the digital backbone itself.
Ukraine
– Occupied Oleshky in the Kherson region is suffering famine, it is reported that people are eating pigeons and dog food. The humanitarian situation behind the front line keeps collapsing. – Diplomacy: Budrys says discussions about an EU special envoy for talks are possible only after agreeing on common demands. A signal that the European position is not yet aligned, and formal Russia-Ukraine talks have been stalled since the start of the Iran war. – Front: the main Russian pressure concentrates around Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, there are no major territorial changes. Ukraine’s long-range strikes keep halting Russian oil refining.
Geopolitics
– Iran: state television reports preparations for the grand funeral of the killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The US-Israel war against Iran that began in February still shapes the region’s axis. – Hormuz: the US and Iran are still coordinating a memorandum on extending the ceasefire and free shipping in the strait, Trump promises to decide soon. At the same time the US stopped a cargo ship heading to Iran in the Gulf of Oman, the naval pressure has not gone anywhere. – Lebanon: Israel’s ground operation crossed the Litani river, the fighting moves deeper. – Paradox: the markets price a peace that does not yet exist. Oil falls expecting an open Hormuz, stocks rise only expecting a deal, while on the ground a blockade and war continue. Belief outruns fact. – Espionage: Estonia reinforced its eastern border against drones, officials warn that as sanctions tighten Russian intelligence hunts Western technology more aggressively.
Central banks
– ECB is preparing not to cut but to raise rates. A Bloomberg survey shows two 25 basis point hikes this year, the first expected on June 11. The reason is one, the Iran war’s energy shock raised eurozone inflation to 3 percent. – The logic flipped: just last year the market awaited cheaper money, now the central bank talks of tightening with stocks stuck at the peaks. Two trains are driving toward each other.
IPO radar
– Anthropic raised capital at about a 965 billion dollar valuation and overtook “OpenAI” (about 852 billion). The round was led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia, the company announces about 65 billion in new capital and rapidly growing revenue. – SpaceX with xAI after the merger is aiming for a 2 trillion dollar valuation in a public offering (IPO), the document is already public, the investor roadshow is planned for early June. – The message: money floods into AI and space precisely when the macro backdrop is unstable. Capital chooses where it believes the result will withstand the turmoil.
What to watch
– The US-Iran decision. Trump promised to decide soon on the memorandum. It is the litmus test for oil and risk assets. – ECB June 11. The first rate hike after a long wait would shake both stocks and the euro. – The scale of Registrų centras. How far the data traveled and whether it will be officially recognized as a targeted state attack. – Malta’s results. A small country’s election, but it matters for the EU political map. – Anthropic and SpaceX. Whether AI and space valuations keep rising, or it is already the scent of the cycle’s top.
Meška’s note
Stocks at records, oil falling, and at the same time Iran is preparing the funeral of its killed leader and the naval pressure continues. The market decided that everything will end in peace, and prices that scenario before it even comes true. Late-cycle logic, liquidity and the AI mania overlook geopolitical risk as long as they can afford to.
Calm? No, just a price that for now refuses to acknowledge risk. When the ECB raises rates or Hormuz closes again, the same optimism that lifts today will retreat just as fast. We watch not the headlines but the moment when the market stops believing that everything will sort itself out.