Daily Brief 2026-04-24

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Daily Brief 2026-04-24

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 –0.41% to 7,108, Nasdaq –0.89% to 24,438, DJI –0.36% to 49,310. The tech sector mood was spoiled by two quarterly reports: IBM dropped more than 8%, ServiceNow nearly 18%. Both cited the Middle East war as a direct drag on subscription and software sales. This is no longer macro commentary – it is a financial filing.
  • WTI oil +1.26% to $94.14/bbl – the fourth consecutive up session, despite OPEC+ raising output by 206,000 bpd in April. The market is ignoring it. The Hormuz blockade is a physical fact, not a political signal, and no decision in Riyadh helps as long as ships cannot sail.
  • Gold +0.82% to $4,758/oz. BTC +3.77% to $78,568. Both asset classes rising at once – through different mechanisms. Gold – the war risk premium. BTC – more like liquidity and tech capital flow.

Lithuania and the Baltics

  • The U.S. approved a $214 million sale of AIM-9X Sidewinder Block II missiles to Lithuania – 152 additional missiles on top of the previously contracted 16. Defense tech accumulation continues on schedule, despite coalition political tensions in the Seimas.
  • Baltic states publicly warn Europe over business with Russia (Bloomberg, April 23). A specific signal – aimed at EU member states quietly resuming commercial ties with Moscow. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania are united in this position.
  • Seimas – coalition disagreements over further increases to the defense budget vs. the social sphere (healthcare, education). Speaker Olekas confirmed tensions among coalition parties. The dispute itself is predictable – 5.38% of GDP for defense in 2026 is a record, and every additional point will be politically harder to justify.

Europe

  • Informal EU summit in Cyprus (April 23–24) – two agenda axes: the MFF 2028–2034 financing structure and the geopolitical context (Ukraine, Iran). On the first evening Zelensky addressed the leaders directly. No formal conclusions – this is an informal meeting.
  • MFF discussion: “new own resources” – EU-level revenue instruments (taxes, CO₂ levies, etc.) that would finance the budget directly, without additional member-state contributions. No specific amounts were announced, but the political signal is clear – leaders agree that ambitions need funding, not just declarations.

Ukraine

  • April 22: 231 combat engagements in 24 hours – 78 air strikes, 7,067 drone attacks, 2,810 artillery positions. The front is active; the Donetsk axis remains the primary one.
  • Easter ceasefire broken by both sides. Putin announced a 32-hour truce for the Easter weekend; Zelensky agreed. Ukraine recorded 7,696 violations, 4 killed, 35 wounded across 5 regions. The truce functioned as a media moment – not a real halt.
  • U.S. and Ukraine – virtual talks on the architecture of post-war security guarantees. NATO Secretary General Rutte joined. Ukraine’s position: freeze the conflict line at the current state. Russia’s position: all of Donetsk oblast – non-negotiable. The gap remains fundamental.

Geopolitics

  • IAEA session on Iran’s nuclear program – China, Russia and Iran together. Russia pledged to finance construction of a nuclear power plant in Iran. The U.S. and Iran simultaneously declare “serious and productive” talks. Both processes run in parallel – this is not a contradiction; it is positioning before the final deal configuration.
  • Strait of Hormuz – shipping practically halted. Iran declared the blockade; only Iran-affiliated shipping remains. Per IEA data, demand destruction is running at 4–5 million bpd – about 5% of global supply. Asia is the most affected.
  • OPEC+ raised output by 206,000 bpd from April – but physical oil markets are ignoring it. WTI $94, Brent approaching $95–97. The war premium overrides any production decision while Hormuz is blocked.
  • China is buying Iranian oil via a “dark fleet” – uninsured tankers, settlement in yuan, refining through independent refineries. This is not ad hoc circumvention but a structured system. Consequence: China is building a strategic dependence on Iran that will become a negotiating condition later.
  • The Iran war weakens the U.S. geopolitical position – Russia and China are not intervening; they are watching. Every month the U.S. spends in the Middle East is a month China uses to expand its position in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

IPO Radar

  • Anthropic: $800 billion valuation, $30 billion annualized revenue – triple late-2025 ($9 billion). Planned IPO – October 2026, aiming to raise more than $60 billion. For comparison: OpenAI annualized revenue is $25 billion, valuation about $840 billion after the latest round. The two largest private AI companies are approaching public markets at the same time – this could either open the IPO market or drain capital from it.

What to Watch Tomorrow

  • WTI oil and Hormuz diplomacy – whether any signals on resuming shipping emerge after the IAEA session. Every 24 hours of blockade builds long-term expectations.
  • U.S.–Ukraine security guarantee talks format – whether a formal framework will be announced after the virtual meeting, or whether the process will remain at the level of ambiguity.
  • Iran–U.S. talks progress – the China–Russia–Iran joint front at the IAEA shifts the negotiating geometry. Whether the U.S. responds with additional sanctions or with flexibility.
  • Nasdaq recovery – the 13-day winning streak ended. IBM and ServiceNow set a precedent: the war is directly affecting tech-company revenue. The next quarterly reports – more important than ever.
  • EU signals after the informal summit – whether leaders will offer any concrete cues on the structure of MFF financing for 2028+.

Meška’s Take

Today best illustrated an old truth: markets do not follow news, they follow flows. OPEC+ raised production – as planned, as announced, as required. The diplomatic side is not closed. But WTI is rising for the fourth day in a row because the Hormuz blockade is a physical fact, not a political statement. No decision in Riyadh changes what a tanker can or cannot do near the Strait. This disconnect between the political signal and the physical flow matters more than any Fed comment – because it makes clear that oil prices are, right now, beyond the reach of the usual tools.

The tech-sector story is more interesting still. ServiceNow –18% after mentioning the Middle East conflict in a routine financial filing as a drag on the sales cycle. IBM – similar. That means the war has moved from a macro backdrop into the line items analysts read and use to re-rate sector multiples. I could be wrong, but to me this looks like the start of a wider repricing of geopolitical risk in tech. If another 3–4 companies cite the same factor next week – the market will hear it.