Life’s Trade
The moment I’ve been waiting for since January is approaching. Maybe even since last autumn, when I started assembling this whole mechanism. Now it’s coming together. Not perfectly — nothing in life comes together perfectly — but clearly enough that I want to talk about it openly.
This letter is about one number, one mechanic, and one decision. The number: $8.2 trillion. The mechanic: how big money exploits fear. The decision: my personal one. And I’m going to make it.
Let’s start with what has already happened.
I wrote about the Strait of Hormuz. I wrote about the oil players. I wrote about Trump’s game — how to disconnect the world from the Middle East and redirect it toward America. I wrote about the Kondratiev cycle. I wrote about the liquidity mechanics. All of that was before the real noise started. Now it’s all converging.
$8.2 trillion is currently sitting in money market funds. A record. Bloomberg confirmed it in early March — after the Iran escalation, after the gold rally, after profit-taking in equities, capital flowed into the safe zone and is sitting there. Not invested. Not working. Just waiting.
Money has one very simple rule: money must make money. Eight trillion won’t sit idle for long. The only question is what will give them the signal to come back.
I believe the signal will be fear. The last, greatest fear.
Now let’s see how it all fits together.
Cycles. I write about them constantly, but briefly here: according to Kondratiev, winter has already begun. Spring is coming. But between winter and spring there’s always one more flush — violent, ugly, unpleasant. And then the mass euphoria that leads most cycles to their finale.
We’re in the fourth wave, which hasn’t ended yet and by all accounts should still have one more spike downward. A brutal, nasty, unpleasant washout. And then mass euphoria leading to the finale that most cycles end with. I know it sounds complicated and confusing, so let me lay it out logically.
About this washout, in the short term, I’ve been talking since January. I got the direction right — but not the timing. Markets haven’t decided yet. But the logical sequence is falling into place.
Tax deadline, April 15th. Americans are liquidating positions to have cash to pay taxes. Lithuanians the same — April, the tax authority is waiting with its mouth open. Pension funds returning accumulated liquidity to members. All of this creates a very specific, short-term pressure on prices. Short — a week, two, three. Whether it starts today, tomorrow, or in a week, I don’t know. But Trump has threatened, and he is prepared for this.
This narrative will simply settle into the media. They’ll make an elephant out of it. It will be a monster, blown up beyond all proportion. Meanwhile, that same $8.2 trillion will start entering the market. Quietly. Through institutions, through funds, through dark pools. Not through the CNBC screen.
This could last a week, two, three — until positive news appears. When it does, the price will already have risen. And nobody will understand what the hell is happening. Wars are happening — markets bounced. Fear fills pants — price rises. Simply: there’s a shortage of sellers, the biggest cowards sold at the very bottom, and eight trillion simply bought everything that was being sold.
Why does this make sense?
Because the incentives are aligned perfectly. Bessent needs rates to drop — they drop when there’s a flight to safety into bonds. Trump needs a deal — he gets it when fear peaks and the counterparty blinks. The Fed needs cover — it gets it when markets drop 20%. Institutions need entry — they get it when retail sells in panic.
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s longtime partner, once said: “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.” Exactly.
I know what you’re thinking now: Meška, you sound like a conspiracy theorist. Maybe. But look at the people running this game.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary. A man who managed to break the economy of one of the world’s largest nations. I’m talking about Britain. 1992, Soros’s attack on the pound — Bessent was on that team. He’s not just a trader. He is one of the most capable money sharks this generation has seen. People like that will sacrifice lives but earn billions.
And someone here was telling me what an idiot Trump is. I’d say: a genius in a clown costume. He hired Bessent. He hired people who understand how the system works — not from textbooks, but from the inside. And they’re doing what they do best: creating situations from which those who understand the game profit.
America is doing everything to remain the world’s superpower. All the steps that now look chaotic will, in five, in ten years, look perfectly logical, explainable, and understandable. As always. As in every cycle over the past four hundred years.
Now — about me.
I’m waiting for this washout. Waiting for terrible news. Waiting for the final bottom, which from the current price could be 20–30 percent lower. It will be brutally scary. Everything you’ll read in the news will say: run, sell, save yourselves.
And it’s precisely then that I’m waiting for my pension to be returned — that accumulated amount. And it’s precisely at that moment that I’ll do what big money does. I’ll buy fear.
Not a thousand euros. Not two. Not ten. Because such a clear and obvious opportunity — I don’t know if it will ever come my way again in life. Henrik Zeberg calls it the Blow-off Top. Raoul Pal calls it the “Banana Zone.” I call it Life’s Trade.
Where can I be wrong?
Everywhere. On timing — I’ve been wrong since January, I can be wrong again. The mechanics can break down, something invisible could emerge. Central banks could do something unexpected. Trump could cancel the operation. The $8.2 trillion could sit in money market funds for another year if interest rates stay high.
And most importantly — I’m just one person reading publicly available data and trying to piece together a mosaic from it. I have no inside information channel. I don’t have Druckenmiller’s office. I only have eyes, logic, and cycles.
But when I see how several independent data streams — cycles, liquidity, geopolitics, institutional positioning, regulatory changes — all at the same time point in the same direction, I choose to act. Not to watch. To act.
What to watch in the coming weeks.
April 15th, the tax deadline and its effect on liquidity. Money market fund weekly flows — ICI data, every Wednesday. Iran situation escalation or de-escalation — this could be a trigger. NASDAQ rule changes from May 1st. SpaceX IPO timeline. S&P 500 volumes at support levels — whether Wyckoff accumulation signs are visible.
$8.2 trillion is sitting on the bench. They haven’t gone home. They’re waiting for the signal to return to the field.
I’m waiting too. And when that signal comes — I’ll be ready.
I might be wrong. But staying silent is even worse.
This is not financial advice. This is one person’s opinion and view of what the data shows, and a personal decision based on it. Always do your own research before making decisions.
If this letter helped you see context that’s missing from daily news, share it with someone who cares about this too.