Market Moment
Today everything revolves around one word: ceasefire. The US and Iran agreed on a two-week truce, Tehran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and markets reacted as if after a long oxygen-deprived period — with a deep breath.
S&P 500 up 2.55%, Nasdaq up 3.50%, Dow up 2.17%. Oil fell sharply — Brent below $65. The question is not whether markets rallied. The question is whether this move has a foundation lasting more than two weeks.
The core question is not that markets rallied. The core question is whether this move has a foundation lasting more than two weeks.
Lithuania and the Baltics
Coalition drama continues. President Nausėda speaks in near-ultimatum terms about defense spending, calling for the formation of a “No War” government, while LSDP leader Sinkevičius responds: “today there will be no fights, no squabbles.” The decision is being pushed to mid-April, with the LSDP council holding its session then.
In security matters, French “Rafale” jets took over the NATO air-policing mission in Šiauliai, replacing the Spanish contingent. Symbolically: France is demonstrating its European defense independence ahead of the Eastern Flank. Four months to the 2026 elections. Washington applied Section 301 pressure on China: significant tariff increases and equity investment restrictions. Likely a negotiating balloon before a possible ceasefire.
Europe
Rail Baltica. The project is not dead but the funding gap is real. The EU is pressing for a decision — without which the northern corridor remains uncertain. Kaliningrado. Routine, which is not routine.
Ukraine
The ECB Governing Council met Tuesday in an away session in Paris — no new interest rate decisions. Inflation settled at 84% of its target. The market believes that once tariffs exceed 70% they will effectively block imports, and then the percentage points become pure political theatre. BRICS countries met Trump’s tariff with a 10% tariff of their own. Isolated, forced to choose their economic pain: a strategy that buys time, not a solution.
Illegal demographic politics, but also Trump-style political unpredictability before the election markets.
Geopolitics
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– Frontline — over the past week 164 engagements recorded, 75 of which were settlements, 250 drone bombs. The Pokrovsk sector saw 260 attacks per week — the highest intensity since the start of the war. – President Zelenskyy warned that without additional weapons from allies the front-line situation will deteriorate significantly by autumn.
– Washington negotiations — a possible Section 301 agreement for China: reversing tariff increases and investment restrictions. Likely a balloon before a possible ceasefire. – OPEC+ — planning to increase output in May 2025. Goldman cut forecast by $7/bbl. Stagnation + war + central bank signals = structural pressure.
– Anthropic — valued at $380–500 bln USD, IPO planned for 2026. The next round may exceed $30 bln USD — the firm that made OpenAI. Banker estimates of $400–500 bln. – OpenAI — IPO timeline Q4 2026, targeting $340 bln valuation.
Central Banks
– Fed FOMC minutes (April 8) — 11:1 vote to hold at 3.50–3.75% rate. One dissenter — governor Miranda (wanted 25 bps cut). The minutes were hawkish — inflation and uncertainty dominated. – ECB — Christine Lagarde said the next meeting will decide on the pace of rate cuts. Two more cuts this year possible.
Analysts’ Voices
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– Anthropic — valued at $380–500 bln USD, IPO planned for 2026. The next round may exceed $30 bln USD — firm that made OpenAI. Banker estimates $400–500 bln. – OpenAI — IPO timeline Q4 2026, targeting $340 bln valuation.
Raoul Pal: crypto cycle peak expected in mid-2026, driven by refinancing and demographics pulling toward heavy liquidity injections. BTC is a macro leading indicator, not a half-year history. This aligns with Howell’s logic, just as Pal’s bullish case for markets.
Lyn Alden (book “A Flywheel of Chaos”): chaos multiplier, where geopolitical crises reinforce each other to create a new asset-holder positioning game beyond BTC.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Hari Krishnan: The 60/40 portfolio is dead. Real diversification requires volatility-regime awareness. Gold + commodities + trend-following = structural resilience in inflationary periods.
Michael Howell (Capital Wars, April 7): global liquidity peaked and began declining. PBoC and Fed support insufficient to offset a stronger dollar, bond volatility and strong BOJ/ECB/BOE liquidity reduction.
Like a peak in mid-2026 flows, with refinancing and demographics pulling toward heavy liquidity injections. BTC is a macro leading indicator, not a half-year history. This aligns with Howell’s logic, just as Pal’s optimistic case for markets.
– Iran ceasefire and oil. – US-China tensions.
– ECB away session outcome. – Ukraine frontline update.
Meška’s Commentary
– Rail Baltica funding decision.
– Islamabad negotiations.
Two weeks of ceasefire with Iran and a 17% oil drop in a single day. That alone is almost unprecedented. And markets reacted accordingly. S&P rallied.
Iran needs to preserve what remains of its military infrastructure. Both players are buying time, not peace. Abu Dhabi is buying time too, not peace.
And in the broader context, the Hormuz crisis reveals what Gromen and Pozsar have long been saying: energy control equals monetary control. You cannot sanction your way out of geography.