Daily Brief 2026-04-14

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Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 closed at 6,886 points (+1.02%), Nasdaq – 23,184 (+1.23%). Markets are rising for the second consecutive day, even with oil above $100. The reason: the probability that the Hormuz crisis will not escalate into a broader military conflict appeared greater today than yesterday.
  • Gold – $4,748 per ounce, near record highs. This is not short-term speculation: central banks worldwide have been reducing their dollar reserve share for several years and buying has not let up.
  • BTC – $74,415, +4.7% for the day and +8% for the week. The crypto market today reacted to geopolitical breakthroughs as an alternative store of value — that is more interesting than the price numbers themselves.
  • WTI oil oscillated between $96 and $102 per barrel. The wide range reflects genuine uncertainty following the announcement of the US naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose approximately 7% from last week.
  • DXY (dollar index) – around 98.4; weaker than a month ago but stable. Geopolitical tensions provide some support for safe-haven demand — and that is about it.

Today’s market situation is paradoxical: oil above $100 means inflation, interest rate pressure, and a cost shock. And yet equity markets are rising. Markets are pricing probabilities — not worst-case scenarios.

Lithuania and the Baltics

  • The Seimas voted today on reducing the diesel excise tax — prices are expected to fall by approximately 6 cents. A symbolic step, a populist gesture amid price volatility, but it does not remove the structural pressure created by the Hormuz crisis.
  • Defence budget 2026: €4.79 billion, or 5.38% of GDP — the highest percentage in NATO. 43% more than last year. The budget includes tanks (approximately €350m), armoured vehicles (€375m), CAESAR howitzers (€100m), HIMARS (approximately €70m). This is not paper: all contracts are already signed or in negotiation.
  • 14 European states, including Lithuania, agreed to close the Baltic Sea to Russia’s shadow fleet. The shadow fleet is Russia’s primary mechanism for circumventing oil sanctions — this is not a formal gesture.
  • Baltic foreign ministers issued a joint statement rejecting Russian disinformation claims about drone attacks in the Baltic region. Routine, but continuity matters.

Europe

  • The EP Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee discussed the EU economic governance simplification package today. Brussels works at its own pace, regardless of the Hormuz backdrop.
  • ECB Appia initiative public consultation runs until April 22. These are ECB efforts to modernise the euro area payments infrastructure. A dry topic, but important for euro architecture in the long run.
  • No major policy decisions in Europe today. Germany and France were watching the Iran situation without public statements.

Ukraine

  • Easter ceasefire (April 10–12) ended in disgrace: Russia violated it approximately 11,000 times. On the final day alone, 2,299 incidents were recorded, including 479 shellings and 747 drone strikes. The ceasefire was not a stop — only a redistribution of tactical space.
  • Front lines: The Pokrovsk direction remains the most difficult, Russia is pressing, Ukraine is holding its defensive lines. In the Sumy region Ukrainian forces withdrew from Myropilske positions, primarily to preserve personnel.
  • Diplomacy: The US 30-day ceasefire proposal is still on the table. The UK and France officially confirmed they will deploy troops in Ukraine if a ceasefire comes into effect; a 35-nation coalition is forming. Russia demands Donbas, rejects any NATO troops on Ukrainian soil — this is not a negotiating position, it is a demand for capitulation.

Geopolitics

  • US naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz — today’s main structural event. From April 12–13, the US Navy is blockading Iranian shipping. Direct impact: approximately 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil removed from the market. Oil prices are responding accordingly.
  • Islamabad talks collapse: The US delegation led by JD Vance failed to reach agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue — Iran refused to provide clear commitments. The blockade was the direct response to this breakdown.
  • China against the blockade: Beijing, through Foreign Minister Wang Yi, stated that the US blockade contradicts global energy security. Why this is painful for China: it is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and the blockade directly cuts into its energy security.
  • US threatened 50% tariffs on China following unconfirmed reports that Beijing may be sending weapons to Iran. A Trump–Xi summit is scheduled for May 14–15 in Beijing, but any further incident could destroy it.
  • Russia and sanctions: The EU ban on LNG imports from Russia takes effect on April 25. The oil products ban has been in force since January 21, but in March 14 shipments still arrived at EU ports — enforcement gaps are obvious.
  • OPEC+ increased output by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The decision was made before the Hormuz crisis escalated — in hindsight that timing looks precisely calibrated from the Arab side.

IPO Radar

  • SpaceX (including Starlink and xAI): Bloomberg reported on April 2 that the target valuation exceeds $2 trillion. Confidential SEC filings submitted March 1, roadshow expected in June. If this IPO proceeds at that scale, it will be the largest in history.
  • Anthropic: annualised revenue exceeded $30 billion — more than OpenAI. IPO possible from October 2026, target valuation approximately $380 billion, potential capital raise above $60 billion.
  • OpenAI: IPO target — Q4 2026, valuation approximately $1 trillion. Internal disagreements over a $600 billion spending plan may delay the process.

What to Watch Tomorrow

  • Iran’s response to the blockade: whether there will be a concrete military action or only rhetoric. This will directly determine oil’s direction in the coming days.
  • China’s tone after Trump threatened 50% tariffs — official reaction or strategic silence ahead of the May summit.
  • Russia’s response to the US 30-day ceasefire proposal for Ukraine — whether Moscow will respond officially or ignore it.
  • Russia LNG ban takes effect April 25, 11 days left. Watch market positioning ahead of that date and whether the EU tightens oil ban enforcement.
  • SpaceX IPO signals: any public comment on the roadshow timeline from the SEC or Elon Musk.

Meška’s Comment

The Hormuz blockade is today’s best-illustrated example of what we write about here constantly. This is not a US–Iran conflict over a nuclear weapon — at least that is not the only or primary layer. This is the American method of reminding the world who controls oil flows. China imports Iranian oil and was paying for it in dollars or, increasingly, in yuan. The blockade breaks that flow — and simultaneously sends the signal once again that the dollar system is still alive and still bites. The US still controls the energy gates, and therefore the currency that must be held in reserves.

The paradox — visible in markets today — is that the oil shock also harms the US economy itself. Inflation will return, the Fed will be pressured, consumer purchasing power will suffer. But Washington’s calculation operates on a long time horizon: short-term economic pain is more acceptable than structural dedollarisation acceleration. That logic has been sustaining US hegemony — including against Russia until now. BTC near $74,000 today is the market’s calculation that this logic will eventually weaken dollar dominance. I may be wrong. But the barometer is moving.