Daily Brief 2026-05-01

by

Markets

  • S&P 500 closed near 7,136 points, practically flat (+0.11%), squeezed between two opposing forces: oil price pressure from above and Fed rate “support” from below.
  • Nasdaq moved similarly. In the tech sector, only the AI names are rising right now, the rest are flat.
  • Gold jumped to $4,637 (+1.65%), a classic geopolitical insurance reaction to the uncertainty around a Ukraine ceasefire and the prolonged Hormuz crisis.
  • BTC dropped to $76,088 (–2%), a correction after several weeks of gains, but no structural break.
  • WTI crude near $104 per barrel, elevated because Hormuz has effectively been closed since late February. The OPEC+ quota increase is a symbolic gesture, not real supply.
  • DXY near 98. The dollar is weak, partly due to uncertainty over Fed leadership succession after May 15.

Lithuania and the Baltics

  • Fico’s plane denied passage. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia refused to grant airspace to Slovakia’s Prime Minister Fico, who was traveling to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade. Fico called it absurd. The Baltic states are consistent.
  • Rail Baltica Industry Day 2026. On April 27, RB Rail AS held a seminar that drew around 200 suppliers and partners from across the Baltics and beyond. The project is moving.
  • Defense funding. For context: Lithuania is allocating 5.38% of GDP to defense in 2026 (€4.79 billion), one of the highest ratios in NATO. Not new, but this budget is now the backdrop of an active crisis, not just a plan on paper.

Europe

  • EU digital euro. EP committees are approaching a plenary vote on the digital euro rollout schedule and privacy safeguards. Not the final vote yet, but a question for the coming weeks.
  • Middle East crisis and energy. This week MEPs, the Council and the Commission discussed the impact of energy prices and fertilizer supply, which depends on oil and gas prices. The impact of Hormuz on European agriculture is an underrated issue in public discourse.
  • ECB rates have been unchanged since March 19. The Middle East war was identified as a significant inflation risk. The next decision comes in early June.

Ukraine

  • Putin proposes a May 9 ceasefire. During an April 29 phone call with Trump, the Kremlin offered a brief ceasefire for the Victory Day celebrations. Kremlin aide Ushakov confirmed it publicly.
  • Zelensky is skeptical. He asked the US team to clarify the details. The question is simple and sharp: is Putin offering a ceasefire because he wants peace, or because he wants a parade without air raid sirens?
  • Front line. April 29 saw 137 combat engagements; the Pokrovsk sector remains the most intense (31 assault attempts in a day). No structural changes.
  • European financing. The EU approved €90 billion in loans to Ukraine for 2026–2027, bringing total EU support to €216 billion.

Geopolitics

  • Hormuz effectively blocked since late February following the US and Israeli operation against Iran. From the previous 20+ million barrels per day (bpd), about 3.8 million now flows through. 12–15 million bpd lost, roughly 15% of global supply.
  • OPEC+ quota increase. Eight countries agreed to raise output by +206,000 bpd for May. That is less than 2% of what disappeared due to Hormuz. A signal to the market, not real supply.
  • Trump secondary sanctions. On May 1, Trump warned of secondary sanctions against entities buying Iranian oil or petrochemicals. Defense Secretary Hegseth added that “Iran will pay” for the Houthi attacks on shipping. The direct target is Chinese importers.
  • China and Russia. Both are sitting on the sidelines and winning. China loses cheap Iranian oil flows (13% of imports) but does not pay the cost of war. Russia is collecting an additional $45–150 billion in budget revenue from high oil prices. Chaos suits them.
  • Iran. After 12 days of war, it loses supply but gains a diplomatic “martyr” position. Russia and China are supplying missiles and components, but without an official coalition.

Central banks

  • Fed, 8:4 vote. On April 29, the FOMC held rates at 3.5–3.75%. The largest split in more than three decades. Miran voted for a cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan voted to hold, but against any easing signal in the statement.
  • Powell’s last meeting. His term ends May 15. Trump publicly stated he “doesn’t care” what happens to Powell. Who will be appointed remains unknown. That uncertainty is partly what is keeping DXY at 98.

IPO radar

  • Anthropic. On April 29, TechCrunch reported a possible $50 billion round at an $850–900 billion valuation. Sources are anonymous, but they reflect the broader trend: 80% of global venture capital in Q1 2026 went to AI companies.

What to watch tomorrow

  • Zelensky’s official response to Putin’s May 9 proposal, whether it is rejected or whether detailed negotiations begin with the US.
  • Fed Chair successor. May 15 is approaching, and the market has no name. Every day without clarity is a source of dollar weakness.
  • Hormuz diplomacy. Whether the US counter-blockade breaks Iran, or the situation locks in for a longer period.
  • Oil price after the sanctions warning. Whether China responds officially, or quietly trims Iranian imports.
  • Anthropic round confirmation. If $50 billion holds up, it would be one of the largest private financings in history and an additional signal of the AI bubble’s scale.

Meška’s comment

May 1 is not just any date. Today the Fed split 8:4 for the first time in three decades, and on the same day Trump warned Chinese companies about secondary sanctions. The two events look unrelated. In fact both show the same thing: a system that long operated on assumptions of trust, that the Fed is independent, that Hormuz will always be open, that China will play by the rules, is now being tested from several directions at once.

The May 9 ceasefire offer is interesting not in itself, but for what it reveals. Putin is not offering to negotiate territory or security guarantees, he is offering a pause for parade day. That means his negotiating position has not improved, or he simply doesn’t want air raid sirens over Moscow on May 9. Both readings lead to the same conclusion: there is no serious peace architecture in May, and there won’t be.

Today’s gold jump (+1.65%) is correct. You don’t buy gold when you know what’s coming. You buy it when it is no longer clear where the next break begins, and today there are at least four potential break points: Fed leadership, Hormuz, Ukraine, China. Gold is simply counting the layers.