Markets
S&P 500 closed near 7,137.90 (+1.05%), Nasdaq rose faster: +1.64%, to 24,657.57. Tech stocks recovered part of the week’s losses, helped by the rhetoric around the Fed decision.
Dow Jones more modestly: +0.69%, to 49,490.03. The old-economy thermometer signals cautious optimism today, not euphoria.
BTC jumped +3.77%, to $78,567, a clear reaction to the Fed, which neither cut nor raised rates. The crypto market is reading “hold” as deferred easing.
Gold at $4,758 (+0.82%), still near record levels. Hormuz lifts the oil price, oil lifts inflation, inflation lifts gold. The chain is working.
WTI crude: $103.43 per barrel, the third straight day of gains. The Hormuz blockade continues, supply is not stabilizing.
DXY dollar index reaches 99.9, a three-week high. The UAE’s exit from OPEC and Bessent’s swap-line agreement de facto strengthened the dollar’s position rather than weakening it.
Lithuania and the Baltics
NB8 meeting in Kuressaare (Estonia, April 29-30). Baltic and Nordic foreign ministers wrapped up a two-day session. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas attended. Agenda: support for Ukraine, regional security, upcoming NATO summits.
The US suspended HIMARS munitions deliveries to Estonia, with priorities redirected to the Iran front. Estonia says it has sufficient defense stocks but is looking for alternatives. This illustrates the broader problem: Europe is being armed at the pace of Washington’s priorities, not Europe’s needs.
Today, no new Seimas decisions or major domestic shifts.
Europe
The IMF April regional review confirmed: the eurozone is being hit by a new wave of energy shock tied to Hormuz. Eurozone growth forecast: 1.0% for 2026. Gas prices rose 98%. Inflation has been revised up to 2.5%.
Czechia: the new government, sympathetic to Moscow, could complicate EU unity on Ukraine support. For the first time since 2022, the EU has a heavyweight country capable of blocking or slowing common decisions.
The EU’s 20th sanctions package (adopted April 23) tightens LNG export restrictions, regulates the “shadow fleet,” and bans operations at Murmansk and Tuapse. The symbolism: the EU sanctions Russia at the same moment it is itself suffering through the Hormuz energy crisis.
Ukraine
On the front, Ukraine retook 9 settlements in the Oleksandrivka sector, at the junction of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The eastern sector has partially stabilized.
Zelensky says the front-line situation is the best in the past 10 months: Russia’s March offensive was repelled, morale is higher than at this time last year.
The Easter ceasefire (April 9) collapsed within hours, both sides accusing each other of violations. Diplomatically it means nothing, but symbolically it confirms: there is no will to stop on either side.
UN data: in March, at least 211 civilians were killed and 1,206 wounded, 49% more than in February.
Geopolitics
The UAE officially leaves OPEC on May 1. The cartel’s third-largest member is formalizing what it has done for years: produce more than its quota allowed. Production capacity: 4.8 million barrels per day, the OPEC quota was 3.2 million. The difference: over $50 billion in additional revenue per year.
The link to Bessent’s swap lines: a few days ago, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent formalized dollar swap lines with Abu Dhabi. The UAE’s OPEC exit and the swap lines arrived in tandem. This is a restructuring of the petrodollar system: instead of multilateral quotas, bilateral financial ties as the price of loyalty. Abu Dhabi gets dollar liquidity, the US gets energy loyalty.
The Hormuz blockade has been ongoing since February 28. Iran says the strait “will not return to its previous state under any circumstances.” IEA chief Fatih Birol: “the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.” About 20 million barrels per day used to pass through the strait, 20% of global seaborne oil trade.
China-US: the truce holds until November 2026. Effective tariffs are still around 30%. The US has launched new Section 301 investigations into China’s forced labor practices, with a public hearing on May 5. The relationship is not war, but not peace either, it is a managed-tension regime.
Dollar reserves have fallen to 57% of global currency reserves, the lowest level in 25 years. Yet the UAE swap-line deal shows that the alternative to the dollar is not the yuan, it is negotiating with Washington.
Central banks
The Fed on April 29 held rates at 3.5-3.75%. The vote: 8 to 4, four dissents, a tally not seen since October 1992. Three members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) opposed an easing tilt, one (Miran) wanted a cut.
Powell: this is most likely his last meeting as chair. Kevin Warsh’s nomination is moving in the Senate. Powell announces he will remain a board member indefinitely, until the DOJ investigation concludes.
Market implication: Powell cites four supply shocks (the pandemic, Ukraine, tariffs, Iran) as reasons to hold. The June meeting will be far more important, by then there will be more data.
IPO radar
Anthropic reached an $800 billion valuation, doubling in two months from the $380 billion Series G. Annualized revenue exceeded $30 billion (compared with $9 billion at the end of 2025). The IPO is targeted for October 2026, with a target raise of more than $60 billion.
OpenAI is valued at $852 billion, with an IPO possible as early as June. Target valuation: $1 trillion.
What to watch tomorrow
The UAE’s official OPEC withdrawal on May 1: how will Saudi Arabia react? Quiet acceptance would mean cartel discipline has finally fallen apart. A formal protest would mean Riyadh still has leverage.
The Warsh nomination in the Senate: a question of pace. The faster confirmation, the faster the market starts pricing in his stance, he is seen as more market-friendly than Powell.
Hormuz talks: any sign that US-Iran conversations are moving? The oil price will react instantly to any signal.
Czechia: will the new government in Prague take a clear position on EU support for Ukraine? The first direct statement will be a meaningful signal of EU unity.
BTC at the $80,000 line: will today’s +3.77% continue? If BTC bounces off $78,500 and breaks higher, that would signal a broader risk-asset rally.
Meška’s comment
Two things matter today in essence: the Fed vote and the UAE’s OPEC exit. They may look separate, but both are symptoms of the same system.
Four Fed dissents is not a technical detail. It is an open public debate inside an institution that long cultivated an image of unity. Three members opposed even an easing tilt, meaning they see real inflation risk where others see something temporary. Warsh will arrive with a different list of priorities, and the market knows it. Today’s stock gains are not random, they are partly speculation that leadership is about to change.
The UAE-OPEC deal is structurally more important. The petrodollar system is not dying, it is mutating. In place of multilateral cartel quotas, bilateral financial arrangements are emerging: Abu Dhabi gets dollar swap lines, the US gets oil supply independent of Hormuz. This is not disintegration, it is restructuring. And if this scheme becomes a template for other Gulf states, it could over time be a stronger guarantor of the dollar’s position than OPEC itself.
It may be that I am seeing connected things where there is only coincidence. But the timing of the swap lines and the OPEC exit is too precise to be accidental.