If the world is segmenting, and it is, one practical question rises above the noise: what serves as universal collateral between systems that don’t trust each other?
The dollar is the strongest candidate, but it’s not politically neutral. Other currencies are even less so. This creates space for two things: an old collateral instrument (gold) and a new bridge layer (bridge assets).
Gold: The Old Neutral Collateral in the New Infrastructure
Gold is one of the few assets recognized by everyone regardless of political bloc. It functions as a backup layer: not for daily transactions, but as a settlement and trust instrument in extreme scenarios.
Central banks understand this better than most people. Over the past several years, central bank gold purchases have hit record levels. This isn’t “investment” in the traditional sense. It’s insurance. Insurance against a scenario where the dollar system narrows, sanctions become routine, and every country wants to hold something that can’t be frozen by a SWIFT decision.
Gold isn’t the money of the future. It’s the money of the past that functions as the last reserve line. In a segmented world, that line becomes more valuable, not less.
BRICS: Segmentation, Not Dollar Replacement
BRICS is not a superpower that will replace the dollar tomorrow. It’s a collection of corridors: more regional rails, more walls between systems, more segmentation.
This raises the value of bridges. But bridges only win where gates open for them.
The structural reality: BRICS countries don’t agree on a single common system. India doesn’t want yuan dominance. Brazil has its own interests. Russia needs China, but China doesn’t want to be Russia’s guarantor. This is a tactical alliance against dollar monopoly, not strategic architecture for a new world order.
A “BRICS currency” is more of a negotiating position than a realistic short-term alternative. But the segmentation trend itself is real. The more regional blocs emerge, the more bridges between them are needed.
XRP: Bridge Between Segments, If the Gates Open
If the world segments, a practical problem follows: how do you move value between different systems quickly and cheaply, with fewer intermediaries?
This is where bridge asset logic enters. XRP has been developed since 2012 as an intermediary asset for currency conversion where direct liquidity doesn’t exist.
The practical difference: the traditional path relies on correspondent banks and pre-funded nostro accounts. On-demand liquidity aims to close settlement in seconds rather than days.
This logic becomes more relevant as more regional currency corridors emerge (not just USD/EUR, but CNY/BRL, INR/AED and others), as the traditional correspondent banking network contracts (fewer banks want to maintain nostro accounts in exotic currencies), and as regulatory clarity increases (the SEC case resolution, EU EMI licensing, and similar developments).
But honesty about the risks matters here.
Risks That Remain
If major banks build their own closed interbank infrastructure and agree on standards, the XRP scenario weakens. If CBDC networks accelerate and go global faster than expected, bridge asset logic shifts. If a new player emerges with better technology and, critically, with licenses and institutional trust, the position isn’t guaranteed.
The XRP thesis is structural, not guaranteed. It works better in a segmented world with many regional corridors. It works worse in a world where one dominant player (banks via JPM Coin, or CBDCs via the BIS) captures the entire space.
That’s why I watch infrastructure movements, not the XRP price: how many corridors are opening, how many banks are testing on-demand liquidity, how much regulatory clarity is materializing. Price is a consequence, not a cause.
How These Three Fit Together
My structural thesis looks like this.
The dollar remains the central system but adapts through stablecoins and tokenized T-bills. Its dominant position doesn’t end. It transforms.
Gold becomes the backup layer between regional blocs. Not for everyday use, but as neutral collateral when political trust between systems is low. Central bank accumulation is the clearest signal that this function is being priced in at the sovereign level.
Bridge assets (XRP and potentially others) occupy the gap between regional corridors, where direct liquidity doesn’t exist and where the nostro model is too expensive or too slow. The value proposition depends entirely on how many gates actually open.
This isn’t a “who wins” question. It’s a “who performs which function” question. The answer depends on how fast segmentation proceeds, how much regulatory clarity emerges, and how many infrastructure bridges actually start operating.
What Would Disprove This Analysis
If central banks reverse course on gold accumulation and return to full confidence in dollar-denominated reserves, the backup layer thesis weakens. Watch the World Gold Council data: if annual central bank purchases drop below 500 tonnes consistently, the structural bid is fading.
Segmentation reversing would be the second challenge. Should the world reconsolidate around a single settlement system (whether dollar-based or otherwise), the bridge asset thesis loses its foundation. A unified system doesn’t need bridges.
On XRP specifically: if its corridors fail to gain traction despite favorable regulation, the problem may be technological or competitive rather than regulatory. Watch the number of active ODL corridors and transaction volumes, not the token price.
What Comes Next
In the next and final article of this series: what comes after Q4 2026, the shakeout, the institutional operation, new rules, and why 2029–2031 could mark the beginning of a new cycle.
Sources ▸
Data: World Gold Council, central bank gold purchases, record levels 2020–2026. Ripple / XRP Ledger, on-demand liquidity (ODL) corridor data. BIS, cross-border payment statistics, correspondent banking contraction.
Analysis: Luke Gromen, FFTT, gold’s role in the de-dollarization process. Zoltan Pozsar, “Bretton Woods III” (Credit Suisse, 2022), commodity-backed system. Lyn Alden, fiscal dominance and gold’s structural logic, “Broken Money” (2023).
Context: BRICS initiatives, segmentation trends 2023–2026. SEC vs. Ripple case conclusion, regulatory clarity context. CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System), SWIFT alternative. Note: this is my opinion and my thesis. The mechanism aligns this way for me right now, but I always keep alternative scenarios in mind.