Market Pulse
Hot inflation print. US consumer prices rose 3.7% year on year in September (3.4% in August, 3.6% expected). Core inflation hit 2.6% year on year. Both beat forecasts (Reuters via Detroit News, TheStreet, tier B). The market now prices roughly a 46% chance that the Fed hikes rates at its October 28 meeting, up from about 22% before the number.
Equities. Latest figures I found are afternoon readings, not the official close: S&P 500 near 7,734 (−0.9%), Nasdaq near 26,833 (−1.4%), Dow near 51,622 (−0.1%). The SOXX chip index fell about 4%, more than 10% in five sessions. Bank of America dropped 8.5% after a weaker quarter and a $1.2 billion provision for regulatory fines (TheStreet, tier B).
Dollar and commodities. The dollar hit its highest level since May 2025. Gold and bonds fell, oil rose (tier B). I found no reliable closing values for WTI, gold, BTC or DXY, so I am not quoting them.
Lithuania & Baltics
US troops and a base. The foreign minister says the next goal is a permanent US base in Lithuania, with proposals already submitted. The first rotation troops arrived this morning (LRT, tier B).
Asset freezes. Lithuania froze the assets of Usmanov and Fridman nationally, wants to designate Russian military intelligence as a terrorist organisation, and the interior minister asks to extend military support on the Kaliningrad border (LRT English, tier B).
Diesel and sanctions. The head of government called Trump’s easing of Russian diesel sanctions shameful (LRT English, tier B; I could not confirm the quote in other sources).
China and the finance minister. The head of government hopes for a breakthrough with China by year-end. Lingė asked the anti-corruption commission (VTEK) to review the finance minister’s possible conflict of interest (LRT, tier B).
Gas and taxes. Experts say there will be no gas shortage, but the price depends on geopolitics. The tax inspectorate (VMI) is considering scrapping annual income declarations (LRT business, tier B).
Europe
Budget. Merz says the EU budget draft needs more cuts, while three countries propose an “emergency brake” on EU lawmaking (LRT, tier B).
Diesel sanctions. Kallas argues that easing sanctions gives Moscow revenue for the war. Brussels is not dropping sanctions and is preparing to add about 1,600 individuals and entities (Reuters via ksat/Arab News, tier B).
Poland. Right-wing protesters clashed with police outside the Constitutional Tribunal (LRT, tier B).
Ukraine
An energy ceasefire without Moscow. Trump declared it in force on Sunday. The Kremlin did not confirm. Peskov said only that “contacts are ongoing,” and Zelensky said strikes on energy continue, including a Kharkiv power plant (AP, tier B). Trump made a similar announcement on September 14.
The diesel deal. The US Treasury issued a temporary licence for Russian diesel until April 7, 2027. Moscow expects the first contracts within days (LRT, AP, tier B). Zelensky called it a weak decision by strong partners.
Front line. No reliable front-line changes found today.
Geopolitics
Venezuela. The US eased sanctions on parliament head Jorge Rodríguez (LRT, tier B).
Persian Gulf. No verified Hormuz news today, and I am not repeating older data.
Vatican. Pope Leo XIV is walking again after lung surgery, and doctors describe a normal recovery (LRT, tier B).
Central Banks
Fed. Today’s CPI forced the market to consider a rate hike on October 28. A week and a half ago that looked unlikely.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Yields and the dollar. Whether the bond selloff continues decides the direction of stocks.
Semiconductors. SOXX has now fallen seven days running. Is there a floor?
Diesel licences. Whether Moscow and Washington sign the first contracts, as the Kremlin promises.
Energy ceasefire. Whether Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy stop.
EU sanctions package. Whether the list of about 1,600 names gets approved.
The Bear’s Take
Inflation at 3.7%, the strongest dollar in a year, and half the market already sees a rate hike. How does that fit with a White House that buys Russian diesel before the midterms to push down fuel prices? Simply: inflation beats sanctions principle.
The cycle logic is plain. When the hegemon fights inflation by giving its adversary sanctions relief, allies see that security has a price and it is being negotiated. That is why Vilnius asks for a permanent base, not words.