Market Pulse
Chips dragged the Nasdaq. At Thursday’s close the S&P 500 finished at 7,765 (-0.47%), the Nasdaq at 27,193 (-1.25%), while the Dow Jones edged up 0.1% to 51,232. The semiconductor index fell about 3.4% after news that OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate at end-September was about $50 billion, not the $68–70 billion discussed earlier. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.3% on Friday morning.
Oil high, but off the peak. Brent closed Thursday at $104.3 (+4.1%) and trades around $103–105 on Friday. WTI is near $90.7. The price is held up by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, not by demand.
Gold and bitcoin rebounded. Gold is near $4,190 an ounce (+1.4%) after Wednesday’s two-month low at $4,066. Bitcoin is near $82,500 after Thursday’s low at $80,300. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost another $244 million on Thursday and $485 million on Wednesday.
Bonds cooled from the record. The US 10-year yield is near 5.23%, versus a 24-year high of 5.36% on Wednesday. I found no reliable dollar index (DXY) level today, so I do not quote one.
Lithuania and the Baltics
Nuclear weapons ban. LRT English reports that Lithuania is moving to lift the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons. I did not read the full article, so I leave out the details (who proposed it, when the Seimas votes).
President: defence money is hard to spend. Gitanas Nausėda says Lithuania is struggling to absorb the funds allocated to defence. This sits oddly next to yesterday’s 2027 budget, which earmarks €4.8 billion for defence.
Train discount returns. A 50% discount on train tickets is back, to offset higher fuel costs. It is the Hormuz shock showing up in an ordinary family’s wallet.
Business losses. The bankrupt rail builder Top Rails will lay off its entire staff, and the Innovation Agency, according to media reports, will cut more than 50 jobs. The acting head of Lithuania’s airports is leaving.
Wind. Strong winds left about 2,500 customers without power, the sea flooded the beach in Palanga, and firefighters cleared fallen trees 23 times.
Europe
EU condemns US sanctions on the International Criminal Court. According to LRT, the US imposed sanctions on the court and its former judges hours after the Nobel Peace Prize went to Navanethem Pillay. The EU condemned the move and pledged to help the court keep working, and UN Secretary-General Guterres called it a serious blow to international justice.
Turkey. The EU says restrictions on rights are stalling Turkey’s bid to join the bloc.
Geopolitics
Hormuz effectively closed. The Straits daily brief (9 October, 15:24 UTC) calls the strait “effectively closed”: only 4 transits were recorded on 4 October, against about 85 a day before the crisis. About 197 vessels are holding position in the strait and Gulf area.
New incidents, not yet confirmed. gCaptain reports a commercial vessel hit by a projectile in the Persian Gulf, causing a fire. Iranian state media say the Revolutionary Guard struck a large LPG tanker. CENTCOM has not confirmed this. LRT cites Iran claiming an attack on a tanker. Tehran’s Friday prayer leader says the strait stays closed until Iran’s conditions are met.
Sanctions on the shadow fleet. The US Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels carrying Iranian crude and petrochemicals. Trump earlier said the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November elections, and the blockade stays.
Central Banks
Musalem: hike again. St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem says the Fed will need to hike once more to bring inflation back to 2%. Markets put the odds of an October hike near 17% and a December hike near 83%. The next meeting is 27–28 October, preceded by US inflation data on 14 October.
IPO Radar
OpenAI: silence after the numbers. LRT’s business section is dominated all afternoon by “market optimism about AI wavers after OpenAI results”. I found no new figures or company comment today, so yesterday’s $50 billion run rate remains the only data point.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Weekend Hormuz news. Whether CENTCOM confirms or denies Iran’s claims about tanker strikes will shape Brent’s Monday open.
Iran’s reply to the US. Tehran promised an answer to the US plan within days, and its content decides whether the November window stays open.
OpenAI’s reaction. If the company does not dispute the $50 billion figure, the chip selloff may continue.
US inflation on 14 October. The data ahead of the Fed meeting will show whether the 83% December hike probability grows.
Next week’s budget fight. The coalition must submit the draft to the Seimas by 17 October, and Nausėda’s remarks on unspent defence funds hand the opposition an argument.
The Bear’s Take
Is the closure of Hormuz an oil story? No, it is a logistics story: 4 transits instead of 85 a day means the world already lives without a large part of its energy, while the market trades calmly as if this were an intermission.
In Lithuania you can see it plainly: the train discount returns because fuel is expensive, the president complains that defence money is hard to spend, and the cost of borrowing rises every week. When energy and money get expensive at the same time, there is no time left to adjust.