Market snapshot
Wall Street was locked. July 3 was a holiday, with Independence Day moved from the Saturday, so the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow did not move. The last mark stands from Thursday: the Dow at a record 52,900, the S&P at 7,483 almost flat, the Nasdaq at 25,833 and down 0.8 percent. One index sets a record while another retreats, and that is not shared optimism, it is rotation out of technology into the old economy.
Gold cut upward. $4,170 an ounce, up 1.15 percent on the day and about 2 percent on the week after four weeks of decline. That is the highest point since June 23. The engine is clear, Thursday’s labour market data.
Oil is calm. WTI at $68.77, with no movement at all. That is a message in itself: the January and March Hormuz panic, when Brent had jumped past a hundred, has already evaporated out of the price.
The dollar is weakening. DXY at 100.95, below 101, down 0.4 percent on the week. Bitcoin at $61,300, up 3 percent on the week but still far from spring levels.
Lithuania and the Baltics
Housing is getting more expensive, and people still ask for loans. LRT records that prices are rising while mortgage demand holds firm. From August the minimum down payment for first-time buyers falls to 10 percent instead of 15. At the same time the income tax holding period shortens from ten years to five. Two state levers are pushing more buyers at once into a market where supply is not growing at the same speed. A cheaper entry? No, this is a higher tolerance for leverage at the same price level.
INVL borrowed expensively. The company raised 12 million euros in a bond issue at 9 percent. Nine percent in euros is a marker of what capital now costs a company without a state guarantor behind it.
Snoras after fifteen years. About 200 thousand former depositors have still not collected their money, roughly half of the total. A reminder of how slowly the holes from a bank collapse close, even when the money is set aside and waiting.
Žemaitaitis without consequences. Police closed the administrative investigation into the shoving at the Vilkaviškis meeting. Political routine continues at its own pace.
Europe
Exchanges at records. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.69 percent to a new 52 week high, a fourth straight week of gains. The DAX added 0.85 percent, Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.77 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.9 percent to 6,417. Utilities led, up 1.78 percent, and that is a defensive sector rather than one that shows appetite. Records with a timid internal structure.
Germany tries to straighten up. Berlin is preparing tax cuts and lighter business regulation in an effort to move a stalled economy. The bloc’s largest economy is still looking for an engine of growth.
Rheinmetall is angry. The arms maker publicly criticised the cancellation of a multi-billion warship programme, calling it a blow. The appetite of the defence industry and the reality of state budgets do not always meet.
Ukraine
Deep strikes on energy. Ukraine attacked 12 Russian substations in 48 hours, among them the substation of the Belgorod thermal power plant. The SBU hit the Saky airfield again, with at least 7 aircraft reported damaged or destroyed. The war keeps moving deeper into Russia, into infrastructure rather than only the front.
Russia claims Kostiantynivka. Moscow says it has taken the eastern Ukrainian strongpoint of Kostiantynivka. Until it is confirmed from several sources, that remains a Russian statement rather than a fact.
Czechia sends aircraft for training. Prague handed over 10 ALTO NG planes for training Ukrainian pilots. A small but continuing flow of help.
Central banks
The labour market cracked. June US data showed just 57 thousand new jobs, well below the 115 thousand expected, and the May figure was revised down to 129 thousand. Unemployment fell to 4.2 percent, but not out of health, rather from falling participation, which slipped to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021.
September comes off the table. The market removed a possible September rate hike, while October is still alive according to CME FedWatch. A detail worth noting: in this cycle the Fed is weighing a hike rather than a cut, because the oil shock is stoking inflation. Weak jobs data only pauses that conversation, it does not end it.
What to watch next week
Monday’s open. Wall Street returns after a long weekend and will have to digest Friday’s gold, a weak labour market and European records all at once.
The $4,200 line in gold. If labour market weakness confirms a Fed pause, gold has fuel to continue. Watch whether 4,170 becomes support or a ceiling.
Calm in oil. WTI at $69 means the Hormuz risk premium has melted away. Any new signal from the Iranian front would bring it back in an instant.
Lithuanian property in August. The lower down payment starts soon. Worth watching whether banks are already softening terms in advance.
Meška’s comment
A day without America is a chance to see what is left when the main table is empty. What remained was gold at a record, the dollar below 101, and a labour market creating fewer than sixty thousand jobs a month. That is not holiday quiet, it is the sound of the cycle, only quieter than usual.
The chain of logic is simple. The oil shock from the Iranian war raised inflation, so the Fed keeps a finger on the hike button. At the same time the labour market is starting to crack. When a central bank is forced to tighten into a weakening economy, that is no longer a growth story, it is a vice. And gold at 4,170 with the dollar below 101 says the same thing from the other side: the market is buying insurance against the debasement of money, not a healthy economy. Records on the exchanges with defensive sectors in the lead are the face of that same story, only wearing an optimistic mask.