Markets snapshot
– Everything bounced. After Wednesday’s drop the exchanges rose sharply. The S&P 500 added 1.75%, Nasdaq a full 2.54%, the Dow jumped about 930 points and got back above 50,800. The reason is one: Trump called off the planned strikes on Iran and hinted that a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend. – Oil cheapened. WTI dropped 3.73% to 84.44 dollars. The risk premium priced in during the war week began to retreat. The same signal that lifted stocks pressed oil down. – Gold gained. Up 3.19% to 4,245 dollars. War tension is easing, yet the safe harbor still gets more expensive? No, it’s an inflation message, the ECB just confirmed that price pressure has gone nowhere. – Other. Bitcoin around 63,900 dollars, up almost two percent. The dollar (DXY index) holds near 99, supported by higher rates for longer.
Lithuania and the Baltics
– The price of loans. With the ECB raising the base rate, the news travels straight into Lithuanians’ mailboxes. Euribor-linked loans will get more expensive, and that touches every household with a home loan. It is the first hike since 2023, so the habit of cheaper money is over. – Coalition. Party representatives finished the draft coalition agreement. No changes are promised for the Speaker of the Seimas, the prime minister is still undecided. The talks are moving, but the chairs are not yet handed out. – Rail Baltica. Two companies are demanding more than 14 million euros from Latvia over a terminated contract. A project meant to connect the Baltics is more and more often connected with the courts.
Europe
– The ECB raised. For the first time since 2023 the base rate rose by 25 basis points, the deposit rate to 2.25%. The forecasts were lifted, inflation in 2026 is projected at 3.0%, and growth cut to 0.8%. This is a picture of stagflation, prices rising, the economy standing still. – Meeting. Macron and Meloni are arranging their first bilateral summit at the top level. The leaders of the continent’s two largest economies are looking for common ground while Brussels hesitates.
Ukraine
– The front. In 2026 Russia has no real territorial gains, the fighting has turned into a positional war of attrition. Pressure around Pokrovsk and the Kostiantynivka direction, but in places the Ukrainians are pushing forward themselves. – Drones. Russia keeps bombarding cities, in March it launched more drones than in any month of the war. Ukraine’s air defense shoots down about 90 percent, but the numbers are growing on both sides. – Diplomacy. The process is stuck on a fundamental disagreement, both sides want a different version of how the war ends. US aid so far flows without interruption.
Geopolitics
– Iran. Trump announced he was calling off the night strikes and claimed the deal could be signed this weekend in Europe. However, a senior Iranian official immediately denied that any memorandum or basis for an agreement had been coordinated. Word against word, and the market chose the optimistic one. – Pressure. The same day Trump threatened to seize Iran’s oil export hub on Kharg Island and other infrastructure. One hand offers peace, the other points at a map with targets. – Oil as a barometer. The commodity fell precisely because of these signals. While the signing date is unclear, every message will move the price more than any report.
Central banks
– ECB. Deposit rate 2.25%, refinancing 2.40%, marginal lending 2.65%. Forecasts raised, inflation in 2026 projected at 3.0%, and growth cut to 0.8%. This is a picture of stagflation, prices rising, the economy standing still. – Fed. The June 16-17 meeting, the first chaired by new chairman Kevin Warsh. May inflation in the US got stuck at 3.8%, the highest since 2023. The market is now pricing not a cut but about a 46% chance that rates will be raised by year-end.
What to watch tomorrow
– The Iran deal. Whether the signing in Europe happens, or Tehran keeps denying. So far every hope of peace has had a short shelf life. – Oil. Whether the 84 dollar level holds, or the risk premium returns with the first bad news from the Gulf. – Euribor. The first moves after the ECB hike will show how much Lithuanian home loans will actually get more expensive. – SpaceX debut. Friday brings the first trading day, the first public price signal about the size of the private capital bubble. – Fed prep. Any comment before the meeting that would show whether a December hike is real.
Meška’s note
Two central banks at the same time say the same thing, inflation never left the stage. The ECB already raised, the Fed hesitates at the threshold of a hike, while the market celebrates an Iran peace that Tehran hasn’t even confirmed. Optimism, denial, and back to the start, we’ll see how many times they screen this film.
Sources
TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters, Euronews, NPR, CNN, Times of Israel, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, LRT, Delfi, Kyiv Independent, CFR Global Conflict Tracker.
These are my observations, not instructions. What you do with your money is up to you.