Rise, dominance and decline of superpowers. How the global order shifts and why.
On March 2, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 18 million barrels of oil per day—nearly one-fifth of global supply—stopped flowing. WTI crude jumped 44 percent in a single month, breaking the $99 mark for the first time since 2022. The media called it war. Analysts called it a risk shock. Neither description captures … Read more
When the conversation turns to “the end of the dollar,” I keep going back to one moment: Bretton Woods, 1944. Britain was still an empire. Sterling was still a serious currency. But America had four things no one else had: the largest economy, the deepest financial markets, trust (a legal system with predictable rules), and … Read more
The one framework that explains wars, market crashes, currency moves, and trade wars — all at once. The hegemonic cycle and why everything you see in the news is connected.