Hegemonic Cycle 101: why everything you see is connected
One model that explains wars, market crashes, currency wars, and trade blockades — all at once. The hegemonic cycle, and why everything you see in the news is connected.
Hegemonic Cycle
Rise, dominance and decline of superpowers. How the global order shifts and why.
When Iran Closed Hormuz, the System Showed Its Cracks
On March 2, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 18 million barrels of oil per day—nearly one-fifth of global supply—stopped flowing. WTI crude jumped 44 percent in a single month, breaking the $99 mark for the first time since 2022. The media called it war. Analysts called it a risk shock. Neither description captures … Read more
Why the Dollar Won’t Surrender — and How It Renews Through Stablecoins
When the conversation turns to “the end of the dollar,” I keep going back to one moment: Bretton Woods, 1944. Britain was still an empire. Sterling was still a serious currency. But America had four things no one else had: the largest economy, the deepest financial markets, trust (a legal system with predictable rules), and … Read more
The Hegemonic Cycle 101: Why Everything You See Is Connected
The one framework that explains wars, market crashes, currency moves, and trade wars — all at once. The hegemonic cycle and why everything you see in the news is connected.