244 cycles organized into 8 categories by duration, from a few weeks to several centuries. Each category operates on a different time horizon, but all interact: short-term cycles spin inside long-term ones, like gears inside a clock.
For operational use, the Top 15 kit is recommended. This list is the full reference system.
1. Short-term cycles (2–8 weeks)
Market pulse. Sentiment waves, options expiration, liquidity micro-cycles.
Options Expiration cycle (OPEX) · VIX mean-reversion cycle · FOMC meeting cycle · Weekly sentiment cycle · Month-end rebalancing · T+1 liquidity cycle · Gamma Exposure (GEX) cycle · CTA momentum signal · Put/Call ratio cycle · Retail vs. Institutional flow cycle · Treasury auction cycle · NFP/jobs data cycle · CPI/inflation data cycle · PMI cycle · Margin call cascade cycle · Short squeeze cycle · Funding rate cycle (crypto) · Monthly options expiration cycle · Quad Witching cycle (quarter-end)
2. Tactical cycles (2–18 months)
Seasonal effects, election cycles, earnings seasons, inventory swings.
Sell in May seasonal cycle · Santa Rally · January Effect · US presidential election cycle (4 yr) · Earnings season · Inventory cycle (Kitchin, 3–5 yr) · Fed rate pause cycle · Tax-loss harvesting season · IPO window cycle · Hedge fund redemption cycle · EM capital flow cycle · Oil seasonal cycle · Agricultural seasonal cycle · Corporate buyback blackout period · Fiscal year-end cycle · Government budget cycle · ECB/BOJ policy cycle · China credit impulse cycle · Annual rebalancing cycle
3. Business cycles (2–10 years)
Classic economic cycles: expansion, peak, recession, recovery.
Juglar business cycle (7–11 yr) · Kitchin inventory cycle (3–5 yr) · NBER recession/expansion cycle · Fed rate full cycle (hiking + cutting) · Credit mini-cycle · Profit margin cycle · Labor market cycle · Consumer confidence cycle · Capacity utilization cycle · Corporate debt cycle · Yield curve inversion/normalization cycle · Bank lending standards cycle · CapEx investment cycle · M&A activity cycle · IPO/SPAC wave cycle · Volatility regime cycle · Minsky credit phase cycle · Check clearing cycle · Tech hiring/firing cycle
4. Structural cycles (10–30 years)
Real estate, demographics, debt structure, technology adoption.
Kuznets RE/infrastructure cycle (15–25 yr) · Demographic cycle (Baby Boom/Bust) · Housing affordability cycle · Energy investment supercycle · Commodity supercycle (20–30 yr) · Technology adoption S-curve · Howell’s liquidity supercycle · Commercial RE cycle · European debt/crisis cycle · Japan’s “lost decades” cycle · China urbanization cycle · Middle class expansion/contraction cycle · Inequality cycle · Pension system pressure cycle · Healthcare cost cycle · Education debt cycle · Dollar strength long cycle · Gold bull/bear supercycle · Bitcoin halving megacycle (4 halvings = ~16 yr)
5. Long cycles (40–70 years)
Kondratiev waves, technological paradigm shifts, monetary regimes.
Kondratiev wave (40–60 yr) · Dalio long-term debt cycle (75–100 yr) · Technological revolutions cycle (Perez) · Monetary regime cycle (gold standard → fiat → ?) · Bretton Woods I → II → III cycle · Inflation/deflation supercycle · Energy paradigm cycle (coal → oil → ?) · Strauss-Howe generational cycle (saeculum, ~80 yr) · Globalization/deglobalization cycle · Interest rate long cycle · Bond bull/bear megacycle · Global labor division cycle · Innovation cluster cycle · Financial regulation/deregulation cycle · Social trust cycle
6. Secular cycles (60–100 years)
Epoch-defining trends that span several business cycles in a row.
Secular bull/bear market cycle · Secular inflation/deflation cycle · Secular interest rate cycle · Labor vs. capital share cycle · Urbanization megacycle · Democratization/authoritarianism cycle · International trade regime cycle · Energy transition megacycle · Populism wave cycle · Reserve currency erosion cycle
7. Hegemonic cycles (100–250+ years)
The rise and fall of superpowers. The meta-structure inside which all other cycles spin.
Dalio hegemonic cycle · Modelski long leadership cycle (~100 yr) · Hegemonic war cycle · Reserve currency cycle (Portugal → Spain → Netherlands → Britain → US → ?) · Sea power cycle · Financial center migration cycle · Imperial debt cycle · Military overextension cycle · Internal fracture cycle · Technological leadership transition cycle · Trade route control cycle · Alliance formation/collapse cycle
8. Civilizational cycles (200–500+ years)
The birth, maturation, and collapse of civilizations. The longest known cycles.
Turchin secular cycles (~200–300 yr) · Ibn Khaldun asabiyyah cycle · Tainter complexity collapse cycle · Toynbee civilization challenge/response cycle · Spengler culture lifecycle · Climate/civilization correlation · Religious/ideological dominance cycle · Writing/information technology cycle · Imperial decline universals · Elite overproduction cycle (Turchin) · Social violence wave cycle
How to use this
This list isn’t meant to be memorized. It’s meant for orientation. When you see a market move, a headline, or a crisis, find which cycles it’s happening in. When several cycles from different categories converge at the same point, that’s a signal that the probability of change is high.
Deeper analysis of each category, in upcoming articles.