Markets snapshot
– S&P 500 closed at 7,129.80 (–0.13%) — a directionless day; the market is waiting for after-the-bell Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta reports. – Nasdaq 24,661.95 (–0.01%) — practically frozen. The week’s entire risk premium sits in Big Tech earnings, not today’s session. – Dow Jones 48,815.01 (–0.67%) — the toughest tape for old-economy sectors: high oil, weakening consumption, rising input costs. – Gold 4,558.40 USD/oz (–1.08%) — Monday’s correction continues. Markets are still trying to price a scenario where Hormuz reopens within weeks. Structurally, that logic is weak. – BTC 75,350 USD (–1.26%) — crypto is shaking with risk appetite. No standalone narrative. – WTI crude around 99–103 USD/barrel — swung both ways on the day with Trump signals on Iran’s offer. The Hormuz geopolitical premium has not gone anywhere. – DXY (US dollar index) 98.62–98.7 — near a three-week high. Higher oil + flight to the dollar = a classic stagflationary picture.
Lithuania and the Baltics
– Vaitiekūnas warns of recession — the finance minister acknowledged Monday that the Iran war is already reaching Lithuania through fuel prices, and targeted measures are being prepared for the most vulnerable groups. Business is pushing harder: not just fuel, but supply-chain risk. – Oil reserves released — Orlen Lietuva released 80,000 tonnes of oil from reserves; the diesel excise was temporarily reduced. A short-term shock absorber, not a solution. Reserves will run out faster than the war. – US arms deal — on April 22, the State Department approved the sale of 152 additional AIM-9X Block II missiles to Lithuania; total with the prior contract — 214 million USD. For NASAMS air defense. Delivery schedule is an open question — Iran is competing for the same US production capacity. – LRT protest — over 10,000 people gathered in Cathedral Square against amendments to the LRT law before the Seimas. The EBU released a report showing that the public broadcaster in Lithuania strengthens, not weakens, private media. The political context is obvious — a fight for institutional independence. – Defense at 5.38% of GDP — the 2026 budget allocates 4.79 billion euros to defense. NATO-champion levels, but the numbers only mean something with real delivery — and from April onward, delivery is becoming unreliable.
Europe
– ECB meeting day two — the decision is announced today at 14:15 CET, with Lagarde’s press conference at 14:45. Markets priced a hold (refi rate 2.15%, deposit 2.0%), but everyone is watching for June signals. The probability of a summer hike rose on Iran-driven stagflationary pressure. – “A layered cake of shocks” — Lagarde’s April formulation: war, energy, tariffs, growth drag. The ECB cannot be certain about any single variable. – EU–ASEAN ministerial meeting — April 27–28 Brussels strengthens ties with Southeast Asia, hunting for trade diversification. A structural step, not a tactical one.
Ukraine
– Front simmering — 189 combat engagements over 24 hours, 84 airstrikes, 234 guided bombs, 8,409 drones, 3,019 artillery attacks. Russia is pressing the Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka axes. Ukraine’s air defense is thinnest where the most is needed. – Russian total losses — 1,328,820 personnel since February 24, 2022; 1,180 over the past day. The pace has held even without major operations. – Talks frozen — US mediation is effectively stuck because of the Iran war. Ukraine proposes a freeze along current lines, including the Donbas; Russia demands the rest of the Donetsk region. Positions are drifting further apart while Washington juggles two theaters.
Geopolitics
– Trump weighs Iran’s offer — Tehran sent it via Pakistan: we open Hormuz, we postpone the nuclear file until after the war ends. Rubio says “the proposal looks better” than previous ones. But Trump insists the nuclear program comes at the start of talks, not the end. – “State of collapse” — Trump’s social-media line: Iran itself admitted being in “a state of collapse.” The diplomatic choreography — the stronger side negotiates loudly, the weaker stays silent. But negotiating posture is not the same as actual position. – Hormuz still closed — commercial flow trickles through only via individual coordinated convoys (Idemitsu Maru — Saudi cargoes, 2 million barrels, April 17). The IEA is calling this shock “the largest supply shock in history.” – China buys what it can — Beijing keeps buying sanctioned Iranian oil through the shadow fleet. Not just revenue for Tehran — a quiet statement that the sanctions system is no longer seamless. – UAE leaving OPEC — Abu Dhabi announced yesterday it will leave both OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1. The second-largest spare-capacity holder in the group — and a symbolic blow to Saudi leadership. The Atlantic Council calls it “a long time coming” — the end of Gulf solidarity, not just an oil question. – Strategic conjuncture — Moscow–Beijing trade will exceed 220 billion USD in 2026, but secondary sanctions on Chinese banks are already slowing expansion. The system is fragmenting — and you can see it in prices: oil high, dollar strong, gold in correction, not flight.
Central banks
– Fed holds 3.50–3.75% — an 8-vs-4 split decision; the last time four dissented was October 1992. Stephen Miran wanted a 25 bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan disagreed with the “easing-signal” language in the statement. – Powell stays — but not as Chair — his term ends May 15, but he will remain as governor “for an indefinite period.” A non-standard move — a signal that the transition will be more uncomfortable than expected. – A party-line win for Warsh — the Senate Banking Committee approved 13:11 along party lines. The floor vote is still ahead, but the political trajectory is clear. – ECB today — the Frankfurt decision lands in the afternoon. Details will round out yesterday’s setup for tomorrow’s brief.
IPO radar
– Anthropic at 800 billion USD — the valuation doubled in April from 380 billion in the February round. ARR — 30 billion USD (announced April 7), triple the end of 2025. The first time Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on revenue. IPO target — October, plans to raise over 60 billion USD. – OpenAI at 730–852 billion USD — February’s 110-billion-USD round. IPO possible in June. ARR — about 25 billion USD. Investors are nervous that pressure from Anthropic is changing the competitive dynamic. – Stripe is not rushing — Polymarket gives 97.5% probability that an H1 2026 IPO will not happen. Valuation crossed 150 billion USD, but John Collison said in January: “we’re in no rush.” – Databricks at 134 billion USD — closed 5 billion USD in equity, plus 1.8 billion in debt. ARR — 5.4 billion USD, 65% growth year on year, positive free cash flow. The only player in this market whose financials work in every direction.
Analyst voices
– Lyn Alden (Macro newsletter, “A Flywheel of Chaos,” March–April 2026 issues): the self-reinforcing dynamic of geopolitical crises challenges her own “gradual print” thesis. The Iran war is not a standalone shock — it is a component of a system in which debt, energy, and geopolitics reinforce each other. Source: Lyn Alden, March 2026 Newsletter – Doomberg (“Durable Energy Dominance,” 2026-04-28): all wars are energy wars. US strength is not in oil (where exporter capacity is limited) but in natural gas. That explains why Washington’s response to Iran is financial and military — but not an SPR release. Source: Doomberg, Durable Energy Dominance – Tavi Costa (X/Twitter, 2026-04-28): agricultural commodities are breaking through nearly 20 years of resistance. When energy moves, food follows. If Hormuz drags on — the inflation steering wheel is still underwater. Source: Tavi Costa @TaviCosta
What to watch tomorrow
– Big Tech earnings — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta after today’s close; Apple — tomorrow. These four make up a substantial share of index weight. The reaction will tell whether the Fed pause and Iran war are already showing in corporate guidance. – Lagarde’s wording — every word about June matters. If “vigilance” or “the coming months” appears in the statement — markets will read it as an approaching hike. – Trump’s response to Iran — promised “very soon.” A rejection sends oil back above 105 USD; acceptance (unlikely) knocks the geopolitical premium out within days. – Ukraine’s negotiating position — will Kyiv hold the line on freezing along current borders if US pressure intensifies because of Iran? A hard test for Zelensky’s principled stance. – Senate vote on Warsh — the floor vote is still ahead. A fast confirmation track would suggest a behind-the-scenes deal on the Fed, even if not on paper. – Saudi response on the UAE — Riyadh’s first public comment on the OPEC exit will signal whether the group tolerates or pushes back. Silence would mean the decision was long-coordinated. A sharp reply — that fragmentation is accelerating.
Meška’s note
Today’s tape — a stagflation-regime snapshot, just without panic. Dollar strong, oil expensive, gold in correction, equities frozen. That is not a normal combination — usually a strong dollar knocks oil down, and high oil throws gold up. Right now all four moves run at the same time, because each has a separate catalyst: the dollar — safe-haven demand; oil — Hormuz; gold — a peace scenario priced too early; equities — waiting on Big Tech. When four variables run on four independent narratives, the system is not stable, it is frozen. Frozen is not calm.
The Fed’s four-vote dissent matters more than the rate itself. For the first time since October 1992, the Committee splits two-on-two — some want to cut, others reject the easing signal. This is not a technical disagreement; it is institutional strain: the real economy is asking for one thing, risk assets for another. Powell stays on as governor — meaning the handoff to Warsh will not be ceremonial. The interesting part: Anthropic and Lyn Alden’s “flywheel of chaos” theses are now talking about the same thing — a system in which crises are no longer random but structurally linked. Lithuania stands inside this picture with 5.38% of GDP for defense, oil reserves being released, and LRT protests in Cathedral Square. A small country in a big storm — first taking care of what it can control.