# Daily Brief — 2026-04-10
– Fed speakers (after hawkish FOMC minutes). – Gold: will it hold $3,250?
1. Market Moment
– S&P 500 gained two weeks straight, ~6,825 — already the seventh session in a row, the longest streak since last autumn. The market rode ceasefire euphoria, but yesterday Tehran’s comments began to overturn the mood. – Nasdaq ~22,820 bps — still near peak but weekly volatility is elevated.
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2. Lithuania and the Baltics
– French Rafale jets took over the NATO air-policing mission in Šiauliai — the fourth most-requested card with Romanian F-16s deploying to the Spanish contingent. Symbolically: France is demonstrating European defense independence ahead of the Eastern Flank. – President Nausėda — warned that without a new defense spending decision before Easter, he will call an emergency session. LSDP still holds. – Rail Baltica — Washington pressed hard for a Section 301 agreement for China: tariff increases and equity investment restrictions. Likely a negotiating balloon before a possible ceasefire. Likely a balloon before a possible ceasefire.
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3. Europe
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4. Ukraine
– Turkey mediation — talks between the parties in Istanbul on April 10, 2026. Washington urged both sides to use Section 301 as leverage for China: tariff increases and equity investment restrictions. Likely a balloon before a possible ceasefire. Likely about a possible ceasefire discussions. – OPEC+ — planning to increase output in May 2026. Goldman cut forecast by $7/bbl. Stagnation + war + central bank signals = structural pressure.
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5. Geopolitics
– Anthropic — valued at $380–500 bln USD, IPO planned for 2026. The next round may exceed $30 bln USD — the firm that made OpenAI. Banker estimates $400–500 bln. – OpenAI — IPO timeline Q4 2026, targeting $340 bln valuation.
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6. Central Banks
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7. IPO Radar
– Anthropic — valued at $380–500 bln USD, IPO planned for 2026. The next round may exceed $30 bln USD — firm that made OpenAI. Banker estimates $400–500 bln. – OpenAI — IPO timeline Q4 2026, targeting $340 bln valuation.
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8. Analysts’ Voices
– Bank of Japan — kept rates at 0.5%. Inflation rising. Yen strengthening creates pressure on carry-trade-driven currencies. Timeline — may well become balance-sheet-shrinking forces.
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9. What to Watch Tomorrow
Likely a negotiating balloon before a possible ceasefire. – OpenAI — IPO timeline Q4 2026, targeting $340 bln valuation.
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10. Meška’s Commentary
– Lyn Alden: chaos multiplier, where geopolitical crises reinforce each other to create new asset-holder positioning beyond BTC. – Hari Krishnan: The 60/40 portfolio is dead. Real diversification requires volatility-regime awareness.
– Iran ceasefire extension talks. – Turkey-Ukraine-Russia Istanbul meeting. – US-China Section 301 outcome.
– ECB away session outcome. – OPEC+ May decision confirmation. – Rail Baltica EU funding decision.
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Two weeks is not long. But markets are behaving as if the world changed. And maybe — it did change a little. Ceasefire brings relief. But what comes after the ceasefire? That is the real question. Meška is watching.