Daily Brief 2026-04-13

by

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 – 6,816.89 (-0.11%). The technology sector held its ground (Nvidia +2.58%, Amazon +2.05%), but traditional industry retreated under the full weight of geopolitics.
  • Nasdaq – 22,902.89 (+0.35%). The only one of the three major indices to close in positive territory today. The AI wave’s centre of gravity is holding.
  • Dow Jones – 47,916.57 (-0.56%, -269 points). Verizon -3.62%, Salesforce -3.43%, Nike -3.14% — business models most dependent on cheap energy and stable supply chains. Both are questionable today.
  • WTI oil – approximately $104–105 per barrel (+7–8%). This is today’s story. Trump announced that the US Navy will blockade all shipping to and from Iranian ports starting at 10:00 ET. Brent rose similarly to ~$102. European gas futures jumped 18%.
  • Gold – $4,738 per ounce (-1.02%). Somewhat paradoxically — an oil shock, yet gold fell. The reason: the dollar was strengthening, and short-term capital is choosing liquidity over metal safety.
  • Bitcoin – $71,054 (-0.98%). Together with gold — down. High-uncertainty episodes are still pushing capital into the dollar rather than alternative stores of value.
  • DXY – 99.03 (+0.39%). The dollar as “safe haven” today. The only question is how long that logic holds when the dollar itself is an instrument of the conflict.

Lithuania and the Baltics

  • Diesel excise tax – the Seimas voted (102 in favour, 4 against, 4 abstentions) for a temporary excise tax reduction on diesel, in force until June 15. If finally adopted tomorrow (April 14), prices could fall by approximately 6 cents. Finance Minister Vaitekunas called it a buffer against energy prices driven up by the Middle East crisis — a direct link to today’s Hormuz situation.
  • Baltic airspace and Russia – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania issued a joint statement rejecting Russian claims that drones were launched against Russia from their territory. The countries confirmed: Ukraine had no permission to use their airspace. This is a direct response to Russian disinformation claims that could be used as a pretext.
  • Estonia’s defence strategy – updated JPA 2026 defence policy foundations were presented. Separately: a contract was signed for the purchase of three additional HIMARS launchers from Lockheed Martin.

Europe

  • ECB – rates unchanged. The bank states clearly: the Middle East war is pushing inflation risks higher and growth risks lower. The stagflationary context means the ECB cannot raise rates (would crush the economy) nor cut (would fan inflation). The manoeuvre space is narrowing.
  • EU loan to Ukraine – the first tranche of the €90 billion support loan should be disbursed in April. The December European Council agreement is being implemented. This is both a financial signal and a political one — the EU is not backing down.

Ukraine

  • Easter ceasefire – effectively collapsed. Over 32 hours Russia violated the agreement 2,299 times (Ukrainian figures), Ukraine approximately 2,000 times (Russian claims). Four civilians were killed, 35 wounded. Both sides blame each other, but the essence is the same: the ceasefire was a political performance, not a military reality.
  • Front lines – 120 combat engagements in the past 24 hours. The most intense sectors — Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. The northern direction remains stable.
  • Security guarantees – the US supports a guarantee mechanism centred on US-led ceasefire monitoring. France and the UK confirmed: if a ceasefire is agreed, they will deploy forces on Ukrainian territory.

Geopolitics

  • Hormuz – US blockade – from April 13 at 10:00 ET the US Navy begins blockading shipping to and from Iranian ports. Iran had been effectively blockading the strait since February 28 (when the US and Israel began the air war and supreme leader Khamenei was killed). JD Vance’s weekend negotiations collapsed on April 12 — markets had expected this, but today the probability became fact.
  • Supply shock – approximately 25% of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally passes through Hormuz. Analysts estimate a market shortfall of approximately 7 million barrels of crude and 4 million barrels of products per day. As long as the strait remains closed and Iranian infrastructure is not restored — high prices in 2026 are likely here to stay.
  • Russia and sanctions – the US Treasury Department announced sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil — Russia’s two largest oil companies. In addition, penalties of up to 500% on oil from countries that continue to buy Russian oil from April through December. Theory contradicts practice: the Hormuz situation and Russia’s problems make these quotas largely irrelevant to the current day.
  • US and China – Trump’s visit to Beijing is expected this month. Tariff-war truce technically in force. But rare earth metals, semiconductors and the Taiwan tariff agreement (20% → 15% in exchange for $85 billion in purchases) show that trade is a bargaining chip, not an end goal.

IPO Radar

  • Anthropic – revenue exceeded OpenAI’s for the first time: annualised run-rate surpassed $30 billion. A $30 billion funding round was completed in early April, valuation at $380 billion. IPO possible in October.
  • OpenAI – round closed March 31 at an $852 billion valuation — 34 times annual revenue. For comparison: at the peak of the 2021 tech bubble Amazon’s P/S ratio was approximately 4. The market either knows something exceptional, or it is repeating familiar bubble patterns.
  • Stripe – H1 2026 IPO signals continue. Valued at approximately $91.5 billion, a potential benchmark IPO signal for other tech companies.

What to Watch Tomorrow

  • Hormuz blockade in action – are the first ships being stopped? The difference between a declared and a real blockade will be visible in tanker movement data.
  • Oil above $105 – will WTI stabilise around $104–105 or continue rising? Oil at $120 means a real inflation wave that changes not only ECB calculations but political costs across Europe.
  • Seimas vote on diesel – Lithuania decides the question definitively on April 14. A small but concrete step, directly linked to the Middle East crisis impact.
  • Confirmation of Trump’s Beijing visit – against the backdrop of the Iran war, any sign about US–China relations carries weight. A postponement or cancellation would say as much as a confirmation.
  • Ukraine’s diplomatic format – does the Easter ceasefire collapse push toward a new format, or simply a return to previously failed tracks?

Meška’s Comment

Hormuz. Everything else today is background. When the US Navy begins blockading Iranian ports, this is not only a military operation — it is a signal to the world about who controls energy flows and, accordingly, who has the right to dictate the oil price. Saudi Arabia is watching. China is watching. Every country considering diversifying reserves away from the dollar received one more argument today — only the question is which side it falls on. One interpretation: the US still can. Another interpretation: the US can no longer do otherwise.

Today’s strange paradox: oil jumped higher, while gold and Bitcoin fell. The dollar strengthened. The short-term mechanics are clear — capital flees to what looks safest today, and today that is the dollar. But the structural question remains open. How long can the dollar function as “safe haven” while the US Navy uses it as a weapon of economic war against a third of the world? The most important central banks — particularly those of China and India, for whom oil imports through Hormuz are not a theory but an existential necessity — are already asking this question out loud. I may be wrong, but the coming weeks’ reactions from those central banks will say more than any macro commentary.