Market Pulse
Oil stayed high. Brent held around $104–105 a barrel in morning trade as the market weighed attacks on Hormuz shipping against possible easing of sanctions on some shadow-fleet tankers.
Gulf bourses fell. Saudi Arabia’s index lost 0.3% and Dubai’s 1.1% as the Houthis threaten fresh strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities.
No reliable US close for today. The last verified levels are from October 12: S&P 500 about 7,807, Nasdaq about 27,246, gold about $4,169, bitcoin about $82,979. These are older figures, not today’s close.
Lithuania and the Baltics
Budget. The Finance Ministry registered the 2027 budget drafts, with a general government deficit projected at 3.8% of GDP.
Defence. Defence spending rises to 5% of GDP next year, above €4.8 billion.
Coalition friction. President Nausėda urges agreement on the budget and asks the finance minister to speak more respectfully. LRT asks whether the dispute will force changes in the government. Separately, the coalition is in disarray over the child-care benefit and its 2028 start date.
Hybrid threats. Minister Budrys warns hybrid attacks could end in property damage and casualties: waiting to see what Russia invents next is not an option.
Kaišiadorys district: an explosion destroyed part of a house and remains were found. The cause is being established.
Europe
Slovakia. The opposition calls the foreign minister’s visit to Russia treason.
Romania. The president says NATO is preparing a meeting after drone attacks in the Black Sea.
Ukraine
No new reliably confirmed front-line or diplomatic signals today. The section is skipped rather than guessed.
Geopolitics
Yemen. A Houthi attack on the presidential council palace in Aden killed four. Meanwhile Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia reportedly damaged Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters. An EU-Gulf summit in Saudi Arabia was postponed over air-travel safety.
Gulf of Oman. Iran’s military reports a burning oil tanker. Per UBS, crude and product flows out of the Gulf fell to 9.1 million barrels a day from 17 million in early October.
Russia. Authorities removed Novaya Gazeta’s editor-in-chief after a search of his home.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Coalition budget talks. Whether the finance minister dispute turns into a personnel question.
Brent near $100. More Houthi strikes could push it higher; easing sanctions on the shadow fleet would pull it down.
NATO meeting on the Black Sea. Whether a clear response to the drone attacks emerges.
The Bear’s Take
Defence at 5% of GDP and a 3.8% deficit. Will that hold if oil stays above $100? No, this is the first real test of whether budget arithmetic survives an energy shock. The top of the state argues about tone while flows out of the Gulf have halved, the flow that feeds the world’s price chain. The cycle logic is simple: expensive energy pushes deficits up, and deficits need buyers.