Market Pulse
Weak jobs, strong stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,720, the Nasdaq gained 1.15% to 27,180 and the Dow added 0.43% to 51,146. Nvidia hit an intraday record of $237.87 a share, a market cap of $5.72 trillion.
Payrolls disappoint. The US added just 29,000 non-farm jobs in September against expectations of about 90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and hourly earnings grew 3% year on year (3.2% expected). The odds of an October rate hike fell from 64% to 16–22%.
Yields fell, then came back. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the day at 5.28% (+5 basis points) and the 30-year at 5.57%. That pulled stocks off their session highs.
Oil cools on reserves. Brent fell about 2.6% to $99.70 and WTI to roughly $91. The reason: the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic stocks.
Dollar steady, gold resting. The dollar index (DXY) sits around 102, up 3% over the month. The yen weakened again after a brief bounce. Gold slipped 0.9% to $4,166 an ounce, and bitcoin barely moved at around $84,900.
Nike disappoints, Tesla surprises. Nike shares fell about 6% on weaker-than-expected revenue and layoffs. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, more than forecast.
Lithuania & Baltics
A budget with no slack. Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius calls the situation “truly tense”, so the government will hunt for savings on Sunday too, at an extraordinary meeting. Pension indexation and defence commitments make cuts hard. Interior Minister Martynas Katelynas has already admitted the police will not get everything they asked for. Government celebrations are restricted until better times arrive or private money turns up.
Electricity up 36% in September. The average wholesale price reached €109 per MWh. The culprits: maintenance at Finland’s Olkiluoto and three Swedish nuclear units, plus expensive gas ahead of the heating season. Estonia paid €75 and Poland €150.
Three rallies in Vilnius on Saturday. Kudirka Square will host an “Against Mass Immigration” protest and a counter-protest against racism, while Lukiškės Square hosts a “Wake Up from Hate” event. The fight is over numbers. Counter-protest organiser Laurynas Tomelaitis says immigrants with residence permits make up about 8% of the population. Vytautas Sinica claims their share has grown three- to fourfold in five years. Police are stepping up security.
Nausėda thanks Trump. The president publicly thanked him for sending US troops and for the energy partnership (a ten-year LNG contract). Two US battalions, about 1,000 troops, are due in Lithuania by the end of October, including a heavy battalion with Abrams tanks.
Europe
Euro area inflation at 3.8%. The September flash estimate beat expectations (3.6%), up from 3.2% in August. Energy prices rose 18.8% year on year and explain almost half of inflation. Spain is at 5%, and France’s 3.4% has now overtaken Germany’s 3.3%.
Europe gives in on diesel. Trump says Europe agreed to release “a massive amount” of diesel stocks “immediately”. Through the International Energy Agency, the G7 will release up to 100 million barrels over four months, with most of the diesel in the first 20 days. Earlier the same day Europe was still rejecting US threats and calling for joint G7 action.
Looking for the GRU in Leipzig. According to German media, a person linked to Russian military intelligence is suspected of organising sabotage at Leipzig/Halle airport.
Ukraine
Southern Bridge, fourth hit in two days. Russian drones again struck near the supports of Kyiv’s Southern Bridge. In Kharkiv, glide bombs killed two women and injured 36 people, including three children.
Jet drones, a new problem. Ukraine intercepts only 57% of the jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5, so it aims to build up to 400 interceptor drones by the end of October. Engines are in short supply.
Record Russian losses in September. According to Ukraine, 46,230 troops, the highest monthly figure this year. The UK sanctioned seven officials responsible for deporting Ukrainian children.
Geopolitics
Iran: talks without talks. Trump called Iran’s seven-day Hormuz plan “unacceptable” and did not rule out new strikes after the November midterms. Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation, including Araghchi, to leave New York. Tehran says it is “fully prepared” for war but keeps the Qatari channel open.
Hormuz is firing again. The UK maritime security agency reports a new attack on a tanker, and three more vessels were hit on September 30. No casualties and no attribution. Middle Eastern oil exports via alternative routes have recovered to 21.8 million barrels a day, against 23.3 million before the war.
OPEC+ on Sunday: nothing new. On October 4 the cartel is expected, according to sources, to leave November output targets unchanged. Actual output is still below target, so the decision is more on paper than in barrels.
Schröder back in Russia’s service. The former German chancellor has joined the supervisory board of a Russian retail chain. A footnote? No, a reminder that Russia’s influence networks in Europe have not gone anywhere.
Central Banks
The Fed gets a breather. After a soft PCE and a weak labour market, Fed officials talk of time to “assess the inflation data”, and a White House economist expects no more hikes this year. The market still prices a December hike.
Pressure builds on the ECB. Inflation at 3.8% with an 18.8% energy surge makes the October 29 meeting difficult. Another hike would hit growth. A pause would hit credibility.
IPO Radar
Anthropic aims for November. According to Bloomberg, the company is targeting a listing before Thanksgiving, with a formal investor roadshow possibly starting the week of November 9. Its last funding round valued it at $965 billion.
SpaceX opened the door. The record SpaceX IPO closed at $161.11 a share, 19% above the $135 offer price, for a market cap above $2 trillion. OpenAI is reportedly leaning towards 2027.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Latvia’s Saeima election (October 3). All 100 seats are up, and polls show a majority for the New Unity, National Alliance, United List and ZZS bloc. The military is stepping up air and sea surveillance.
Vilnius rallies (October 3). They will show how far migration mobilises the street and whether police can avoid clashes.
The government’s extraordinary meeting (October 4). Where the savings land: social spending, defence or investment.
OPEC+ meeting (October 4). If the cartel surprises with an output increase, Brent could stay below $100 for longer.
Brazil’s presidential election (October 4). Latin America’s largest economy picks its direction.
The Bear’s Take
The labour market stalled, and stocks rallied straight away. A paradox? No, this is a market more afraid of the Fed than of recession, so bad economic news is still good rate news. But the 10-year yield finished the day higher than it started, and Europe has just printed 3.8% inflation.
The G7 reserve release is a pre-election prescription, not a cure. 100 million barrels over four months equals roughly one day of global consumption, and Hormuz is firing again. For Lithuania this is not abstract: electricity is up by a third, the budget is being counted on weekends, and it is only early October.