Market snapshot
The Dow at a record. On Thursday, the last session before the long weekend (US exchanges were shut on Friday for Independence Day), the Dow Jones rose 1.14 percent to a record 52,900 points. The S&P 500 closed almost unmoved.
The Nasdaq lagged. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.61 percent, with technology pressed by Tesla, which dropped 7 percent even after beating its delivery forecasts. Semiconductors continued their decline.
Weak jobs data. June US nonfarm payrolls added only 57 thousand positions, the least in four months and far from the 110 thousand forecast. The market immediately cut the odds on a September Fed move from 66 to 50 percent.
The dollar is weakening. The DXY dollar index fell 0.52 percent to a two-week low, right after the poor labour market number.
Gold and bitcoin are holding. Gold is around $4,120 an ounce and rose another 1.15 percent on Friday. Bitcoin is around $61.6 thousand. WTI oil fell for a third day running to roughly $67, damped by signals from the US and Iran talks.
Lithuania and the Baltics
A new government is forming. Šimonytė says ministries that work relatively well do not need big changes. The registered programme of the new government provides for higher child benefits.
Defence bypasses public procurement. The Ministry of National Defence wants to buy body armour outside the usual procurement procedure, citing speed. The logic of urgency is understandable, but the question of control remains.
Housing is getting more expensive. Property prices keep rising and the number of would-be borrowers is not falling. Demand for mortgages holds even as money gets dearer, a sign that the housing hunger in Lithuania is stronger than interest rates.
Europe
Germany pushes for growth. Berlin is cutting personal taxes and restrictions on business, trying to wake a frozen economy. The largest EU economy is publicly admitting that the old model no longer works.
Rheinmetall is angry. The German defence giant calls the cancelled multi-billion euro warship programme a blow to industry, at exactly the moment Europe is talking about rearmament.
The EU border system irritates. After airlines warned of chaos from the new border check system, the EU promises more support and a transition period.
Ukraine
A deadly attack on Kyiv. On Thursday a Russian strike took at least 17 lives, one of the bloodiest assaults on the capital of the whole war. Ballistic missiles, a hypersonic Zircon and drones were used.
Patriots are short. Only the Patriot system can intercept such missiles, but Ukraine lacks the munitions. The defence ministry sent letters to nearly 40 countries asking for missiles from existing stocks.
The front has frozen. Russian territorial gains over the first half of the year came to just 97 square kilometres, while June losses approached 40 thousand soldiers. Zelensky announced a 40 day campaign of long-range strikes against the Russian oil sector.
Geopolitics
The United States and Iran are talking. Signals from the peace negotiations knocked oil down and lifted risk assets. Less tension in the Gulf means a cheaper barrel and calmer logistics.
Netanyahu and Lebanon. Israel’s prime minister claims several Christian settlements in Lebanon are asking to be joined to Israel. The claim is unconfirmed, but it shows where the region’s borders are moving.
The Red Sea burns again. A cargo ship was attacked near the coast of Yemen. The risk on that sea route does not disappear even as Gulf tension eases.
OPEC+ holds its course. On July 1 in Vienna the cartel confirmed its production level to the end of the year, gradually returning previously restricted supply to the market.
IPO radar
SpaceX is already listed. After the historic June 12 debut at $135 a share, the company’s value passed $2 trillion. xAI, with Grok and X, stayed inside SpaceX.
What comes next. IPO rumours for OpenAI (about $852 billion) and Anthropic (about $965 billion) point to October. If it happens, it will be the largest wave of artificial intelligence listings in history.
What to watch tomorrow
The return of US exchanges. Monday after the long weekend will show whether the Dow record holds, or whether weak jobs data brings a correction.
Fed rhetoric. After the 57 thousand number, any speech by Fed officials now weighs twice as much on markets.
The floor in oil. Whether the US and Iran talks give an even lower barrel, or whether it bounces off $67.
The Lithuanian government. The details of the programme and the list of ministers, especially in defence and finance.
The sky over Kyiv. Whether the West responds to the request to 40 countries for Patriot munitions.
Meška’s comment
A record on the Dow on the same day the labour market stumbles and the Nasdaq falls. That kind of split is not a sign of strength, it is the sound of a cycle ending, when capital huddles around a few safer names. A weak 57 thousand means the Fed is again between the hammer and the anvil, between the fear of inflation and a slowing economy.
Gold near 4 thousand, a weak dollar and the artificial intelligence listing wave are the same story from different sides. Money is running out of a paper promise into something tangible, or into the last remaining growth story. The hegemonic cycle does not end with an explosion, it ends with a record that nobody is really happy about.