Markets snapshot
– Tech fell. Nasdaq dropped almost a percent to 25,678 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.26% to 7,387. The Dow, on the contrary, added 86 points to 50,872. The reason is simple, Trump hinted at new strikes on Iran after it targeted an American helicopter, and tech stocks ran first. – Gold cheapened. Minus 1.76% to 4,286 dollars. Strange, the war heats up yet the safe harbor cheapens? No, it’s a market signal that the Hormuz talks are still being kept alive, and some positions are being closed for profit. – Oil. WTI around 88.75, Brent around 92 dollars. It cheapened on Wednesday, even though Iran struck its Persian Gulf neighbors. – Other. Bitcoin holds around 62 thousand dollars, up a percent. The dollar (DXY index) near 99.9, barely moving.
Lithuania and the Baltics
– Coalition. Mindaugas Sinkevičius, after talks with the “Demokratai”, stated that some proposals come with a price. The negotiations have not yet settled, the rhetoric is sharpening. – The army. The commander of the armed forces warned that without better living conditions soldiers will have no motivation to choose professional service. The defense budget is growing, but the human capital remains the weak link. – Energy. The Baltic states are negotiating a joint reserve of critical electrical equipment, ESO is investing 12 million euros in the Telšiai region networks. After disconnecting from the Russian system, resilience became a national matter. – Hormuz echo. According to Kpler data, the first oil tanker since March is sailing toward Europe from the Persian Gulf. The war in the Middle East reaches the Klaipėda terminal too.
Europe
– Defense. The EU sped up the approval of military projects. Procedures are being shortened, because Brussels finally feels the time pressure. – Trust. A survey shows that only one in ten Europeans considers the US a reliable ally. The number says more than ten summits.
Ukraine
– The front. On June 9, 234 combat clashes were recorded. Over four weeks Russia lost about 93 square miles, twice as much as the previous month. The front is frozen, in places pulling back. – Kharkiv. On the morning of June 10 a drone attack injured at least six people, sparked fires in residential districts. Air defense shot down 181 drones out of 207. – Diplomacy. Macron confirmed that Zelensky will take part in the G7 summit in France. Thomas Graham says the conflict is ripe for an ending, the mood in Moscow has shifted, but there is still no continuous negotiation process.
Geopolitics
– Iran. After the April ceasefire, the weekend brought the sharpest escalation. Iran launched about 30 ballistic missiles at Israel, Israel struck Iran’s air defense. On Monday both stopped, but both are ready to return. – Gulf neighbors. After Iran targeted an American helicopter, the US responded with strikes, and Iran went after Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. The war is spreading horizontally, not only between two capitals. – Hormuz. The strait has been effectively closed since February 28, when the war began. This chokes the exports of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. Trump claims a deal to reopen the strait is within reach. – OPEC+. The cartel added a symbolic 188 thousand barrels a day. After the UAE’s exit the group is weaker, and the real power stayed in the strait, not in the quota table. – China. Tomorrow Trump promises to announce a trade deal leaving 30% tariffs and a 60-day pause on higher ones. De-escalation, but temporary.
Central banks
– ECB tomorrow. On June 11 the market almost unanimously expects a 25 basis point hike to 2.25%, the probability reaches 99.6%. War-fueled energy inflation forces a hike even when growth is fragile. – Fed. The June 16-17 meeting with new forecasts. So far one cut is projected for this year, the rate on reserve balances held at 3.65%.
IPO radar
– SpaceX. June 12 is the first trading day. The target, a 1.75 trillion dollar valuation and 75 billion raised. The largest private company debut in history. – Anthropic. After a new 65 billion dollar funding round (Series H) the valuation jumped to 965 billion dollars, overtaking “OpenAI” (852 billion) for the first time. An IPO is being considered for October. – Databricks. A new funding round as soon as next month, valuation 165-175 billion dollars.
Analyst voices
– Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen in a new conversation warn that a prolonged Iran war could trigger a systemic collapse through oil and the Treasury bond market. [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tkKoMEiFDk) – Lyn Alden in the June “The Wild West” newsletter keeps the portfolio in liquid positions so she can move fast. [Source](https://www.lynalden.com/june-2026-newsletter/) – Michael Howell reminds that the global liquidity wave is receding, the peak was in the fourth quarter of 2025. [Source](https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/the-liquidity-tide-goes-out)
What to watch tomorrow
– The ECB decision and Lagarde’s press conference. The question, whether the hike is one-off or the start of a cycle. – Trump’s China deal. Whether the 60-day pause actually takes effect, or stays a headline. – Hormuz. Any news about reopening the strait or a new strike will move oil harder than anything else. – SpaceX debut on Friday. The first public price signal about the size of the private AI and space bubble. – Kharkiv front. Whether the drone wave continues, or it was a single strike.
Meška’s note
Two central banks go in opposite directions in the same week. The ECB raises, because the war makes energy expensive, the Fed hesitates, because it fears a recession. This is not a policy mistake, it is the logic of the cycle, when inflation is set not by money but by a tanker stuck in a strait.
And gold, falling during the war week, says the same. The market still believes Hormuz will reopen and oil will cheapen. The only question is how many times the hope of peace has to fail before that one in ten Europeans who distrusts America becomes the voice of the majority.