# Daily summary: 2026-04-29
Markets
– S&P 500 closed at 7,129.80 (-0.13%), a session without clear direction, with the market waiting on after-hours reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta. – Nasdaq 24,661.95 (-0.01%), practically frozen. The week’s entire added value sits in the Big Tech reports, not in today’s session. – Dow Jones 48,815.01 (-0.67%), the toughest tape for the old industrial sectors: high oil, weakening consumption, rising input costs. – Gold $4,558.40/oz (-1.08%), Monday’s correction continues. Markets are still trying to price a scenario in which Hormuz reopens within a few weeks. Structurally, that logic is weak. – BTC $75,350 (-1.26%), crypto twitches alongside risk appetite. No independent narrative. – WTI crude roughly $99-103/barrel, swung both ways during the day on Trump’s signals about the Iranian proposal. The geopolitical premium from Hormuz has not gone anywhere. – DXY (US dollar index) 98.62-98.7, near a three-week high. Higher oil plus a flight to the dollar equals a classic stagflationary picture.
Lithuania and the Baltics
– Vaitiekūnas warns of recession, the finance minister acknowledged on Monday that the Iran war is already reaching Lithuania through fuel prices, and that targeted measures are being prepared for the most vulnerable groups. Business is pushing harder: not just fuel, but supply chain risk too. – Oil reserves released, “Orlen Lietuva” released 80,000 tonnes of oil from reserves, and the diesel excise was temporarily reduced. This is a short-term shock absorber, not a solution. The reserves will run out faster than the war. – US arms deal, on April 22 the State Department approved the sale of 152 additional AIM-9X Block II missiles to Lithuania, bringing the total with the prior contract to $214 million. Earmarked for NASAMS air defense. The delivery schedule is an open question, with Iran competing for the same US production capacity. – LRT protest, more than 10,000 people gathered at Cathedral Square against the LRT law amendments being debated in the Seimas. The EBU released a report showing that the public broadcaster in Lithuania strengthens, not weakens, private media. The political context is obvious, a fight over institutional independence. – Defense at 5.38% of GDP, the 2026 budget allocates €4.79 billion for defense. That is NATO champion territory, but the numbers only matter with real deliveries, and as of April, deliveries have become unreliable.
Europe
– Day two of the ECB meeting, the decision is announced today at 14:15 CET, Lagarde’s press conference at 14:45. The market has priced in a hold (refi rate 2.15%, deposit rate 2.0%), but everyone is waiting for signals about June. The probability of a summer hike has risen on the stagflationary pressure caused by Iran. – “A layer cake of shocks”, Lagarde’s phrasing in April: war, energy, tariffs, a brake on growth. The ECB cannot be sure of a single variable. – EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting, on April 27-28 Brussels strengthened ties with Southeast Asia, looking for trade diversification. This is a structural step, not a tactical one.
Ukraine
– The front is boiling, 189 combat engagements over the past day, 84 air strikes, 234 guided bombs, 8,409 drones, 3,019 artillery attacks. Russia is pressing toward Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian air defense is thinnest where it is needed most. – Total Russian losses, 1,328,820 personnel since February 24, 2022, with 1,180 over the past day. The pace has stayed high even without larger operations. – Negotiations stalled, US mediation is effectively stuck because of the Iran war. Ukraine proposes freezing along the current lines, including Donbas; Russia demands the handover of what remains of the Donetsk region. The positions keep drifting apart, and Washington is torn between two theaters.
Geopolitics
– Trump weighs the Iranian proposal, Tehran sent it via Pakistan: we open Hormuz, we postpone the nuclear questions until after the war. Rubio says “the proposal looks better” than earlier ones. Trump, however, demands that the nuclear program be at the start of negotiations, not at the end. – “State of collapse”, Trump’s social media comment: Iran itself admitted it was in a “state of collapse.” The diplomatic game runs as it always does, the stronger side negotiates publicly, the weaker side stays silent. But negotiating positions are not the same as actual positions. – Hormuz still closed, commercial flow only seeps through in coordinated convoys (Idemitsu Maru, Saudi Arabian cargo, 2 million barrels, April 17). The IEA calls this shock “the largest supply shock in history.” – China buys what it can, Beijing keeps buying sanctioned Iranian oil through the shadow fleet. This is not just revenue for Tehran, it is a quiet declaration that the sanctions system is no longer whole. – UAE pulls out of OPEC, Abu Dhabi announced yesterday that as of May 1 it is leaving both OPEC and OPEC+. The second largest reserve power in the group, and a symbolic blow to Saudi leadership. The Atlantic Council calls it a “long brewing” move, the end of Persian Gulf solidarity, not just an oil question. – Strategic juncture, Moscow-Beijing trade will exceed $220 billion in 2026, but secondary sanctions on Chinese banks are already slowing the expansion. The system is fragmenting, and you can see it in the prices: oil high, dollar strong, gold in correction, not in flight.
Central banks
– Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%, the decision split 8 to 4, the last time there were four dissenters was October 1992. Stephen Miran wanted to cut by 25 basis points; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan disagreed with the “easing signal” wording in the statement. – Powell stays, but not as chair, his term ends on May 15, but he will remain in the governor seat “for an indefinite period.” This is an unconventional step, a signal that the transition will be more uncomfortable than expected. – Warsh wins on party lines, the Senate Banking Committee confirmed him 13-11 along party lines. The full Senate vote is still ahead, but the political trajectory is clear. – ECB today, Frankfurt’s decision is announced this afternoon. The details will fill in the picture for tomorrow’s summary.
IPO radar
– Anthropic at $800 billion, the valuation doubled in April from $380 billion in the February round. ARR is $30 billion (announced April 7), three times the level at the end of 2025. The first time Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI on revenue. IPO target is October, with plans to raise more than $60 billion. – OpenAI at $730-852 billion, a $110 billion round in February. An IPO is possible in June. ARR is around $25 billion. Investors are already nervous that pressure from Anthropic is shifting the competitive dynamic. – Stripe is not preparing, Polymarket puts the probability that an H1 2026 IPO does not happen at 97.5%. The valuation is above $150 billion, but in January John Collison said: “we are in no rush.” – Databricks at $134 billion, closed $5 billion in financing, plus $1.8 billion of additional debt. ARR is $5.4 billion, growth is 65% per year, free cash flow is positive. The only player in this market whose financial metrics work in every direction.
Analyst voices
– Lyn Alden (Macro newsletter, “A Flywheel of Chaos,” March-April 2026 issues): the self-reinforcing dynamic of geopolitical crises challenges her own “gradual printing” thesis. The war with Iran is not a separate shock, it is a component of a system in which debt, energy and geopolitics reinforce one another. Source: Lyn Alden, March 2026 Newsletter – Doomberg (“Durable Energy Dominance,” 2026-04-28): all wars are energy wars. US strength is not in oil (where exporter capacity is limited), but in natural gas. That explains why Washington’s response to Iran is financial and military, but not an SPR release. Source: Doomberg, Durable Energy Dominance – Tavi Costa (X/Twitter, 2026-04-28): agricultural commodities are breaking through nearly 20 years of resistance. When energy moves, food follows. If Hormuz drags on, the inflation drivers are still under water. Source: Tavi Costa @TaviCosta
What to watch tomorrow
– Big Tech reports, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta after today’s close, Apple tomorrow. These four companies make up a meaningful share of index weight. The reaction will tell us whether the Fed pause and the Iran war are already showing up in corporate guidance. – Lagarde’s wording, every word about June matters. If the statement contains “vigilance” or “the coming months,” the market will read it as an approaching hike. – Trump’s response on Iran, he promised “very soon.” A rejection sends oil back above $105; acceptance (unlikely) would knock down the geopolitical premium within days. – Ukraine’s negotiating position, will Kyiv hold its demand to freeze the current lines if US pressure grows because of Iran? This is a hard test of Zelensky’s principled stance. – Senate vote on Warsh, the floor vote is still ahead. A fast confirmation track would mean that the political deal on the Fed is settled behind the scenes, even if not on paper. – Saudi response on the UAE, Riyadh’s first public comment on the OPEC withdrawal will be the signal of whether the group will tolerate it or push back. Silence would mean the decision was negotiated long ago. A sharp response would mean fragmentation is accelerating.
Meška’s comment
Today’s markets are a snapshot of a stagflationary regime, just without the panic. Strong dollar, expensive oil, gold in correction, equities frozen. This is not a normal combination, normally a strong dollar pushes oil down, and high oil sends gold up. Now all four moves are happening at once, because each has its own catalyst: dollar, safe haven demand; oil, Hormuz; gold, the peace scenario priced in too early; equities, waiting for Big Tech. When four variables carry four independent narratives, the system is not stable, it is frozen. Frozen is not calm.
The Fed dissent with four votes is more important than the policy rate itself. For the first time since October 1992, the Committee is splitting two against two, some want to cut, others disagree with the easing signal. This is not a technical disagreement, it is institutional tension: the real economy is asking for something different than the risk-asset markets. Powell stays in the governor seat, which means the handover to Warsh will not be ceremonial. The most interesting thing is that Anthropic and Lyn Alden’s “flywheel of chaos” thesis at this moment are talking about the same thing: a system in which crises are no longer random, they are structurally linked. In the middle of all this stands Lithuania, with 5.38% of GDP for defense, oil reserves being released, and LRT protests at Cathedral Square. A small country in a big storm, one that first has to take care of what it can control.