Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 crossed 7,100 – close +1.50%, new all-time highs after several weeks of anxiety.
- Nasdaq — 13th consecutive session – +1.71%. This streak was last seen in 1992. A statistical fact, not a signal — but it tells you how much accumulated capital was waiting for any excuse to buy.
- DJI jumped 1,005 points (+2.32%) – the index returned to positive territory for 2026.
- WTI oil fell nearly 10% – to $93.74/barrel. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully open” during the ceasefire period. Oil reacted faster than anything else.
- Gold: $4,826/oz – stable. Market euphoria barely touched it, which is itself a signal: gold isn’t being sold when other assets are rising.
- BTC: $74,630 – minor -0.24%, no clear catalyst in either direction.
- DXY: 98.03 – dollar weakening, down 0.33 points. Logically consistent with the risk-on mood.
- Today’s driver – the Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire (Trump announced Thursday evening) and Iran’s declaration to open Hormuz. Two signals, one direction: geopolitical fear retreating.
Lithuania and the Baltics
- Three Baltic prime ministers met in Tallinn – Ruginienė (LT), Siliņa (LV), Michal (EE) discussed Rail Baltica progress and regional security. No formal outcomes yet, but the fact that the meeting takes place against the backdrop of Russian warnings is itself a signal.
- Shoigu warned the Baltic states about Ukrainian drones passing through their airspace – cited UN Charter Article 51 and “the right to defense.” Response: a joint statement from all three countries’ foreign ministries that no Ukrainian operation is conducted through their territory.
- Latvia: airBaltic crisis resolved – parliament approved a €30M loan to the airline (49 for, 23 against). Siliņa was prepared to sacrifice the coalition for the subsidy — the coalition ultimately survived. Baltic aviation still structurally depends on the state as lender of last resort.
Europe
- ECB March 19 decision stands: rates unchanged – main refinancing rate 2.15%, deposit rate 2.0%. Inflation forecast for 2026 raised to 2.6% due to the energy price shock.
- Lagarde resignation rumors – EU member states, per reports, are already probing possible successors. When this kind of probing begins, it’s usually not just a rumor.
Ukraine
- Easter ceasefire – technically collapsed. Russia violated it 10,721 times in 32 hours. Not a single Shahed, not a single missile — the only rule that held. In other words: an agreed minimal withdrawal happened, but only that.
- Negotiations – deadlock. Russia demands all of Donbas – including territories not taken militarily. Zelensky cannot agree. US attention shifted to the Middle East after the Iran crisis, Ukraine negotiation rounds suspended.
- EU €90B loan to Ukraine for 2026–27 – confirmed. PURL needs this year: ~$15B. European military aid grew 67% in 2025. While America arranges its cards in the Persian Gulf, Europe takes the initiative in support management.
Geopolitics
- Israel-Lebanon: 10-day ceasefire – starting today. Festive gatherings in Lebanon. The question is not whether this leads to a broader resolution, but whether this is just a technical pause before the next round.
- Iran: Hormuz “fully open” during ceasefire. Context: the US blockade was announced after Vance-led negotiations collapsed due to the absence of a nuclear commitment. Iran did not capitulate — it opened the strait temporarily, as a gesture during the ceasefire. The US blockade technically still holds.
- China-US: 50% tariff threat over possible Iranian air defense systems delivery. The 10% tariff agreement with China holds until November 2026, but the horizon is narrowing. Beijing accuses Washington of “extreme pressure.”
- OPEC+: 206,000 barrels/day production adjustment – suspending part of the 1.65M barrel voluntary cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia playing price chess against the backdrop of energy instability.
- Russia – Lukoil and Rosneft sanctions effect: maritime export volumes fell 83% year-on-year during December–February following US sanctions. A structural blow, not just a diplomatic signal.
Central Banks
- ECB March 19 decision remains: rates unchanged. Lagarde signaled that energy price risk and geopolitical uncertainty mean “higher for longer” risks — but pressure to cut hasn’t gone anywhere.
IPO Radar
- Anthropic: $800B valuation – double from $380B just two months ago. VC offers exist, but Anthropic hasn’t accepted yet. ARR pace: $30B – for the first time surpassing OpenAI ($25B).
- OpenAI seeking $50B from Middle East funds. Logically consistent with the scene: US-Iran negotiation collapse and Persian Gulf capital reallocation.
What to Watch Tomorrow
- Hormuz: will the opening hold after 10 ceasefire days? Every signal from Tehran will be the oil price driver.
- China: was the 50% tariff threat tactical, or a structural shift to a new US-China pressure level?
- Anthropic: $800B valuation without a confirmed investment round is an anomaly. When the deal is announced, it’ll be the year’s private market signal.
- ECB: Lagarde questions – when specific names appear, that’s no longer a rumor but the beginning of a policy signal.
- Ukraine-US connection: Washington’s withdrawal to Iran is not just tactical. Watch whether Europe fills the leadership vacuum in the negotiation process.
Meška’s Commentary
The structure hasn’t changed. Iran opened Hormuz during a ceasefire — not under a peace treaty. The US blockade technically holds. OPEC+ is cutting production. Ukraine negotiations are stalled. China and the US continue playing tariff chess. And Anthropic is today worth double what it was two months ago — not because of a new product, but because revenues outpaced a competitor and capital flows to the story that looks clearest right now.
Markets will need another catalyst tomorrow. If Hormuz stays open for a week — fine. If not, WTI returns to $105 and today’s euphoria will look like a card someone played too early. I might be wrong. But I won’t be hanging around in this ceasefire logic.