Cycles

Systemic lens

Cycles

The world doesn’t spin at random. It spins in cycles: debt, liquidity, power, technology, psychology. Every crisis is a phase, not a coincidence.

244
cycles in the system
8
categories
2 wks — 500 yrs
spectrum of durations

In this section: a system of 244 cycles, sorted from short-term market pulses to century-spanning hegemonic waves. To help you see the structure driving everything beneath the surface of daily news.

Navigation
01 — OPERATIONAL
Top 15 — Operational toolkit
15 cycles that affect your decisions most right here and now. The practical minimum.
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02 — INTERSECTION
Cycle intersection 2025–2027
A window where several major cycles converge at once. Why this period is exceptional.
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03 — FULL SYSTEM
All 244 cycles
The full system. 8 categories, from 2–4 weeks to 250+ years.
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04 — BUBBLES
Bubbles
From tulips to AI. Every bubble is a signal of a hegemonic cycle breaking point.
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Why cycles, not forecasts

A forecast asks “what will happen?” — a cycle asks “where are we?” That is a fundamental difference.

When you know that the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle lasts on average 18–24 months, you don’t need to guess when it will end. You watch how much time has already passed and what signals suggest we’re approaching the end.

When you know that Howell’s liquidity cycle has a ~65-month wave, you can model not what exactly will happen, but the environment in which decisions will be made.

Cycles don’t give you exact dates. They give you structure. Structure works across centuries — that’s more than any forecast can offer.

8 categories 244 cycles total
Short-term 2–8 wks market pulse, sentiment waves, options cycles
Tactical 2–18 mo. seasonal, election, earnings, inventory cycles
Business 2–10 yrs Juglar, Kitchin, credit mini-cycles
Structural 10–30 yrs real estate, demographic, debt, Kuznets
Long 40–70 yrs Kondratiev, technological, Howell supercycle
Secular 60–100 yrs secular bear/bull, inflation/deflation
Hegemonic 100–250+ yrs Dalio, Modelski, hegemonic war cycles
Civilizational 200–500+ yrs empire decline, Turchin, Ibn Khaldun