Market Pulse
Wall Street in the red for a second straight day. As of 21:00 Vilnius time (trading in New York still under way), the S&P 500 stood at 7,661 (−0.3%), the Nasdaq at 26,754 (−0.25%) and the Dow at 51,237 (−0.5%). The pressure came not from oil but from the consumer and artificial intelligence (AI) news.
Consumer confidence at its lowest since 2014. The Conference Board index fell in September from 88.6 to 81.9, against a forecast of 89. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1%. Job openings fell to 7.10 million in August, fewer than expected.
Bonds are making money more expensive again. The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.27–5.29%, its highest since mid-2007, and the 30-year hit 5.60%, the most since 2004. The dollar index rose to about 101.4, near two-month highs.
Oil gave back part of Monday’s jump. Brent slipped about 1.2% to roughly $104, WTI to $91. Gold recovered about 0.6% to around $4,190 an ounce. Bitcoin held at $83,400, slightly below yesterday.
Lithuania & Baltics
Minister Kaunas apologised. Yesterday the president was waiting for an apology; today it came. Asked whether a party costing nearly €48,000 suited the current geopolitical situation, Robertas Kaunas answered “no” and promised a new staff motivation system. Prime Minister Sinkevičius said last week that his confidence in the minister has not wavered.
Sysas takes aim at the second pension pillar again. Algirdas Sysas, chair of the Seimas Budget and Finance Committee, has registered a proposal to scrap the state incentive for savers, about €34 a month or around €300 million a year, and redirect the money to “Sodra” state pensions. Only about 780,000 people still save, down from 1.4 million before the reform. The government says the incentive stays in next year’s budget.
Prosecutors investigate a cyberattack on the Interior Ministry. A pre-trial investigation has been opened into last week’s attack on the ministry’s information system, which the ministry itself calls hybrid.
Three immigration rallies in Vilnius on Saturday. Vytautas Sinica’s protest against immigration, plus counter-gatherings in support of immigration and against racism. Police and the Public Security Service will deploy more than 200 officers to keep participants apart.
In Brussels, Sinkevičius also met Rutte. The prime minister invited the NATO chief to the official deployment ceremony of the German brigade, due by the end of 2027.
Europe
Vučić resigned in order to become prime minister. Serbia’s constitution bars a third presidential term, so he will lead the Serbian Progressive Party into snap parliamentary elections on October 25. He faces a student anti-corruption movement born after the Novi Sad station canopy collapse in 2024.
The RAF Fairford case, no charges. Five Londoners arrested near a British air base used by the US have been released on bail. No explosives were found, petrol was; a possible link to Iran or Russia is being investigated.
Ukraine
Kyiv under fire again. Overnight Russia launched Onyx and Zircon anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles and 152 drones, 82 of them jet-powered. In Kyiv, a strike on a market killed two people; a school and railway infrastructure were damaged.
Trump does not believe in an energy truce before winter. According to Kyiv Independent sources, the president privately doubts Putin will agree to stop strikes on energy infrastructure, even though Witkoff and Kushner came back from Moscow more optimistic. Moscow’s logic is simple: a winter without heat is a pressure tool.
Belgium will hand over three F-16s by year-end. Meanwhile Russia’s 2027 defence budget, according to documents seen by Reuters, grows 27% to 17.1 trillion roubles, and the 2026 deficit forecast has been doubled to 3.2% of GDP.
Geopolitics
Iran and the US talk to mediators separately. Talks revolve around an amended version of Iran’s seven-day plan: an end to hostilities in Iran and Lebanon, release of frozen assets, lifting of oil sanctions and the port blockade, and then reopening of Hormuz. Trump calls the plan “unacceptable” but expects further talks this week.
Middle East oil exports hit a wartime record. In September they recovered to 12.8 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia doubling its exports to about 5.4 million. Qatari LNG tankers are crossing Hormuz again. In other words, the market is already adapting to the war rather than waiting for peace.
The US and China agreed to pursue tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods. Each side proposed $30 billion of “non-sensitive” goods, from corn to toys. Soybeans were left off the list, and their futures fell in Chicago. The tariff truce has been extended to January 10.
Central Banks
Barr: more hikes will be needed. Fed Governor Michael Barr said in Detroit that energy prices and the AI investment boom have “knocked off course” the decline in inflation, and he does not yet see a clear trend back to 2%.
Australia raised rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked by 25 basis points to 4.60%. The club of rate-hiking central banks is growing.
IPO Radar
Anthropic’s prospectus has leaked. The document obtained by Reuters shows 2025 revenue of $4.6 billion and a net loss of $42 billion, but in the second quarter of 2026 revenue was already $11.5 billion, with an operating profit for the second quarter running. Commitments to cloud and data centres total $518 billion, and a quarter of revenue comes from two clients. The targeted valuation, according to media reports, is around $2 trillion, with shares expected to list in November.
OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra. According to the WSJ, the model planned for October failed internal alignment tests. A rare case of an AI lab halting a release on its own.
What to Watch Tomorrow
PCE inflation on September 30. After 6.1% consumer expectations, a high print would make an October 28 hike all but certain.
Russia’s draft budget to the Duma by October 1. What matters is the oil price and the borrowing Moscow writes into it.
Word from the mediators on Tehran. It will decide whether Brent returns towards $108.
The 10-year yield and the 5.3% line. A break above it would hit equity valuations harder than any oil move.
The fate of the second-pillar proposal in the Seimas. Whether the ruling coalition rejects it outright or lets it be debated.
Meška’s Take
One AI lab devotes 80 pages of its prospectus to risks to humanity; another, the same week, cancels a model because it does not obey. A bubble? No, it is the price of capital: when 10-year Treasuries pay 5.3%, even a $518 billion commitment story has to compete with the risk-free rate, and the consumer is already saying they can no longer stretch.
For Lithuania the same logic arrives through pensions. When the state is short of money, the long horizon suffers first: saving for the future looks like a luxury when today’s pensions are small. Late in the cycle, politics always chooses the present, and the bill goes to those who do not vote today.