Market Pulse
Markets are closed on Sunday, so Friday remains the reference point. The S&P 500 closed at 7,743 (+0.51%), the Nasdaq at 27,069 (+0.5%) and the Dow at 51,829 (+0.93%). All three indices finished the week higher.
Friday’s oil drop was built on a hope that fell apart on Saturday. WTI ended the week at $92.41 and Brent at $104.32 a barrel, both down more than 2% on Iran’s offer to reopen Hormuz. On Saturday Trump rejected that offer, so futures opening on Sunday evening will have to price it in.
The 10-year US Treasury yield ended the week at 5.18%, just below its highest level since 2007. Gold is holding at $4,285 an ounce, and the dollar index slipped about 0.3% from its weekly high on Friday.
Bitcoin is flat over the weekend at $84,000–85,000. On Sunday morning it traded around $84,600 on the usual thin weekend volume.
Lithuania & Baltics
Belarus is considering a radioactive waste repository in the Astravyets district, right on the Lithuanian border. It is one of three candidate sites, alongside the Mogilev and Gomel regions, with completion planned for 2030–2031. Independent experts found 14 violations in the project and warn that leaks could begin within the first century of its planned 300-year life. Lithuania’s Environment Ministry told Minsk back in July that the impact report does not meet the Espoo Convention. The Astravyets plant sits roughly 50 km from Vilnius.
Evacuation drills exposed both capacity and gaps. Kaunas district deputy mayor Laurynas Dilys estimates the district could take in up to 23,000 people in a crisis and support them for up to 30 days. Border municipalities keep repeating the same problem: there is not enough transport, and roads would jam within the first hours. The exercise involved 30 departure and 30 reception municipalities.
Experts urge informing the public about Russian provocations without needless panic. The debate comes in the same week the prime minister told banks to prepare for payments under mobilisation. State messaging is now balancing between preparedness and fearmongering.
Europe
EU states finally unlocked €6.6 billion for Ukraine from the European Peace Facility. Hungary had blocked the money since spring 2023. €4.7 billion will reimburse member states, €1 billion goes to joint weapons procurement and €900 million to the EU military assistance mission for Ukraine. Defence ministers must give final approval on Monday.
The German and Russian foreign ministers met for the first time since 2022. Johann Wadephul and Sergey Lavrov spoke in New York for just over 20 minutes at Berlin’s initiative. Wadephul urged Moscow to halt escalation against Europe and NATO and to agree on Black Sea grain exports. Afterwards he admitted he saw no willingness to negotiate peace.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić expects to extend his gas contract with Russia. Belgrade keeps balancing between Brussels and Moscow on energy.
Ukraine
Kyiv is under attack for the third day running. Overnight into Sunday, Russian drones damaged residential buildings and a warehouse, injuring one person. In the Kharkiv region an FPV drone killed a driver in the Derhachi community.
Russia claims to have taken the village of Marine in Sumy region. Ukrainian troops deny it. According to Kyiv, the settlement remains under Ukrainian control, so the front line in this sector has effectively not moved.
The negotiating calendar is empty. Lavrov repeats that Russia will reach its goals “under any circumstances”, and no date has been set for trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates. Ukraine’s main news this week is not diplomacy but the €6.6 billion Brussels unlocked.
Geopolitics
Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz. “They made a proposal but I rejected it,” the US president said, adding that Iran wants a deal because it is “losing so badly”. Tehran demanded an end to the port blockade, the release of frozen funds and the lifting of oil sanctions. Abbas Araghchi replied that Iran will not back down on its conditions and is waiting for a “definitive” answer via mediators.
After the rejection Trump posted a map labelling the waterway the “Trump Strait”. It is the third such naming attempt since March. Legally it changes nothing, but the signal is clear: Washington treats the strait as a bargaining hostage, not a shared transit route. According to Al Jazeera, Trump expects new bombing after the November midterms.
The UN Security Council unanimously condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The Houthis are running a naval blockade against the kingdom’s tankers and striking its energy infrastructure. That is the region’s second energy front next to Hormuz, and it explains why Brent can’t stay below $100 for long.
A senior NATO commander is speaking openly about strikes on Russian territory. Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, told the Estonian daily Postimees that if defending requires attacking, NATO will do it. Meanwhile, Estonians criticise an ISW scenario about seizing Narva as unrealistic, because it ignores Estonian counterintelligence and allied capabilities.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Futures open on Sunday evening. Oil fell on Friday on Iran’s offer, and the offer was rejected on Saturday. If Brent climbs back above $106, the week’s hope premium will have vanished in a single day.
EU defence ministers meet on Monday. The €6.6 billion for Ukraine needs final sign-off. If Budapest finds new procedural objections, it will be a sign the veto was only postponed.
Iran’s “definitive” answer via mediators. Tehran is still leaving the door ajar. The question is whether a new version of the offer arrives or escalation does.
PCE data on 30 September. The Fed already raised rates to 3.75–4% in September, and 16 of 18 officials expect another hike. A hot PCE print would make that close to certain.
Findings from the border municipality drills. The transport shortage has been flagged for several days now. What matters is whether the government puts real money behind fixing it.
The Bear’s Take
On Friday the market bought Iran’s offer. On Saturday Trump threw it in the bin and renamed the strait after himself. Negotiation? No, this is a price hike: a hegemon that can no longer guarantee free transit for everyone is trying to sell it as its own service.
For Lithuania the same week brought drills short on buses, bank mobilisation plans and a Minsk nuclear dump by the border. At the end of the cycle the periphery pays twice: through pricier energy and rates, and by having to buy its own security while the big players carve up the straits.