Hello everyone,
I said July would be good, and the longer I watch the markets, the more clearly I see that this is not summer optimism and not Twitter shamans pointing arrows at the moon. A rotation of money is under way. And it is not random. It is driven by debt, desperately looking for new buyers, because the old ones are no longer enough.
Let’s start with what nobody wants to say out loud. Every market is leveraged sideways and lengthwise. Everyone owes: states, companies, consumers, pension systems, banks. Everything is pledged somewhere, doubled through leverage, packed into a shiny ETF. And as long as the price is rising, nobody asks where that money came from. But money cannot stand still. Once it stops, it starts suffocating the system, and a suffocating system demands even more debt. That debt has to be sold to somebody, and the larger the amount you need to push through, the prettier the show has to be: lights, music, and enough naive people in the hall clapping before the curtain even falls.
America cannot simply say “we’ll tighten our belts and live more modestly.” This is not a family from Šilainiai postponing a new television on installments. This is an empire, and an empire either expands or collapses. It does not know how to retreat quietly. So the US Treasury will issue bonds, pump out paper and explain that this is the safest asset in the world. It will be partly right: when the whole world is built on the dollar, dollar debt looks like a harbour even when the harbour itself is smoking.
The question remains: who will buy all of it? Japan, China, the oil states and the quiet funds will not absorb it forever. The old buyers are no longer enough, you need the broad masses. And the broad masses have to be lured to the table somehow. For that you first need a bubble.
That is why I think the crypto rally is coming. Laser eyes and 27 dollar targets have nothing to do with it. The system needs a new asset that has not run yet: a new place where money can pick up speed while everyone believes a new era is being born.
Just not Bitcoin. Bitcoin has become a grandfather in an ETF suit: handsome, legal, convenient, but no longer that wild beast. People will look at it and ask: maybe two times, maybe three, is it worth it? And the eyes will turn to the alts, where the madness still lives, where a story can be sold, where a few large buyers are enough for the coins to suddenly run short and the whole table to lift off the ground. XRP, ETH beta, the old beasts of the cycle. Most of it will be garbage, as always. But the market never bought quality. It buys the narrative, the flow of money and the chance to find a bigger fool later. And in euphoria bigger fools appear in such numbers that it hurts to watch.
And when I say rally, I do not mean that sluggish twitch of 2024. I mean the kind where your supposedly “dead” coins do in a few months what equities do not do in a year. I am not writing this off the top of my head. I simply follow how the charts and the narrative move across the whole cycle among the people who watch the market, not the news.
Look at how the money has already been jumping around. First the Magnificent 7 ran, everyone prayed to Nvidia. Then part of it hopped into gold; gold did its thing, and the market remembered that silver was lagging, so silver fired. Then suddenly everyone saw oil again, Hormuz, OPEC and the old geopolitical demons. After that came SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and other new gods with servers devouring electricity like a Soviet factory. And above all of it the stock market stands like the guy at a wedding who is still dancing and even singing, but has clearly had too much and will soon be lying in the salads. Every wave of money needs a new dance floor. One is left that has not been fully trampled: crypto.
And this is not my fantasy. Look at the single chart below. It is a whale chart, and it shows a simple thing. New whales are currently accumulating more aggressively than at any point in history, while the old ones are selling nothing, holding on tight. At the same time the ordinary person is frightened, tired, pulled away from the screen. Big money is collecting, small money is running.
There are other signs. The PMI, the manufacturing activity index, is climbing back into expansion territory, and historically that is exactly when Bitcoin had its strongest upward phases. The crypto market itself has been pressed steadily downward for more than a year, since the end of 2024, into a compression that Bitcoin’s history has almost never seen. ETH against Bitcoin has been leaning for nine years on the same line from which both the 2017 and the 2021 alt seasons started. The spring is compressed all the way. The only question is when it gets released.
And what is happening on crypto Twitter meanwhile? “Crypto is dead.” “You said alts would pump in 2025, where are they?” “The whales will get stuck again.” The whole puzzle on one screen: quiet accumulation below the surface, a tired, angry, disbelieving person above it. That is exactly what the bottom of every cycle looks like before those same disbelievers come back last and buy at the highest price.
And now the most important question: who is all of this being inflated for? The bubble is not the goal. It is inflated so that there is somebody to sell into at the top. The peak of euphoria is the only place in the universe where enough buyers appear for large capital to walk calmly out the door. While retail shouts “it’s not too late,” smart money is already stacking pallets by the exit.
And when the bubble bursts, where does everyone run? Into “the dollar.” Only now that dollar is not in a bank. It is on-chain. It is called a stablecoin.
A stablecoin is not a crypto toy. It is the new pipe for the dollar, and it is exactly where all the remaining money flows after the bubble. The GENIUS Act, signed last July, requires every digital dollar issued to be backed one hundred percent by cash or short-term US Treasuries. Which means every dollar that hides in a stablecoin after the crypto bloodbath automatically turns into demand for American debt.
Three of them matter in this story: USDT, USDC and RLUSD. USDT (Tether) is offshore and the largest. USDC (Circle) is one hundred percent American, NYSE listed, a tidy institutional rail. RLUSD belongs to Ripple, and we will come back to that shortly. All three do the same thing: they take your digital dollar and turn it into American debt.
And now the scale. Tether, one private shop registered somewhere between El Salvador and a Swiss safe, today holds around 135 billion dollars of US Treasuries. That is the seventeenth largest holder of American debt on the planet, above Germany, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Not a state, a company. It pays the stablecoin holder no interest at all, because the law forbids it, so it keeps the entire bond yield for itself. The result: a shop with a few hundred employees earned over 10 billion dollars of net profit last year at a margin of roughly 99 percent. Retail finances the empire and gifts the interest to whoever is standing in the middle.
This is how the petrodollar mutates into the crypto dollar. It does not die. It sheds its skin. It used to spread through banks, oil and bonds, now it spreads through an app on a phone. And while village economists wait for the dollar to collapse, it is quietly getting stronger. Not a sign of health, it is simply that everyone else is sicker, and the world keeps piling up more dollar debt.
But if you want to see the whole machine in one place, look at Ripple. The same shop controls all three pieces. XRP is the alt that has not run yet, ideal bubble fuel. RLUSD is their own stablecoin, issued by a New York regulated subsidiary and backed by cash and US Treasuries, so the same pipe into American debt. And SBI, Japan, Turkey and more than forty networks are the rails along which the dollar stablecoin is pushed into every market. Three days ago, on June 25, Ripple and SBI officially launched RLUSD in Japan with the local regulator’s approval, for institutions and for ordinary people alike. One shop built the entire chain: the coin people will jump into, the dollar they will later flee into, and the rails it all runs on.
And one detail says more than all of their press releases: every Ripple deal this year ended with XRP falling. The token is down about 40 percent since the start of the year. The infrastructure is being laid, it grows every month, and the coin itself is pressed down at the same time. That is accumulation before the big move, with laboratory precision. First you collect, then you release.
And if somebody says this is a conspiracy: they wrote the plan themselves. The White House’s official GENIUS Act presentation has a separate section on how stablecoins grow demand for US Treasuries and cement the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. In black and white, with the president’s signature. Ten years ago people were called tinfoil hats for sentences like that; now it is a government document.
And to be clear: this is only my opinion. No prophecies. Everything could turn out so that I am completely wrong, that the crypto peak already happened when Trump was elected and promised mountains of gold. And I do not believe this idly: over the past weeks I have been steadily accumulating that same bottom I wrote about back in the first letter in April. The distribution simply dragged on longer than I expected, but the prices came exactly where they were supposed to come.
One more thing about Bitcoin, because several things could turn there. Everyone is staring at MicroStrategy now, a shop loaded with Bitcoin up to its ears. I see three options.
First, the one everyone fears: MicroStrategy cannot hold the pressure, is declared illiquid and forced to dump Bitcoin on the market at any price to cover its debts. I strongly doubt it. That would be a noose around the neck, and the institutions would react instantly.
Second: if MicroStrategy does break, the American government steps in and freezes all the assets. Bitcoin frozen, the market screaming, liquidity shrinking. And if Trump then comes out and says investors will be compensated while he keeps the Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, that is fantastic fuel for the whole crypto industry, to an unimaginable level.
Third, the simplest: this FUD ends, prices turn around, and MicroStrategy keeps climbing and pumping all of crypto higher.
Three options, two of them pure rocket fuel. That is why I am calm about Bitcoin and about crypto in general.
I see a dance floor being inflated neatly. The music will play louder, the lights will get brighter, the charts will come, and the analysts, and the Bloomberg articles, and the funds. Everyone will dance up there and believe the party is only starting. But the floor is not being inflated for dancing. It is inflated so that there is somebody to sell into at the top. And when the music stops, the money will quietly drain to where it was planned all along: into American debt.
Put simply: yesterday it was still shit, tomorrow it is innovation again.
Meška out.
P.S. If you hear that somebody is “too big to fail”…