Market snapshot
- Friday’s close (the exchange is shut on Saturday, so the numbers are from June 26): the S&P 500 barely moved at 7,354 points, down 0.05 percent. The Nasdaq fell 0.24 percent to 25,298, a fifth losing session in a row. The Dow finished at 51,876, down 0.09 percent.
- Technology rotation: investors are running from chipmakers into defensive sectors. There is one reason, fear over artificial intelligence valuations.
- Gold rose about 1.1 percent to $4,092 an ounce, supported by a softer inflation report. Oil (WTI) fell more than 3.5 percent, because the Strait of Hormuz is still letting tankers through freely. Bitcoin is around $58,980, down $2,300 on the day.
- So the safety valve now is not bonds and not crypto, it is gold. A classic late cycle sign.
Lithuania and the Baltics
- Baltic pressure on Brussels: at the June 26 meeting of EU energy ministers, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia urged that the delayed ban on Russian oil imports be brought forward. The argument is simple, the fears of an energy crisis during the Middle East events did not materialise. Russian oil now makes up barely 2 percent of EU supply, against 27 percent three years ago.
- An investment property tax is on the table again. Some see it as a solution to an overheated market, others warn the tax will only cut supply. That tension in the property market has not gone anywhere.
- Bank profits: the sector earned 282 million euros in the first quarter, 5.5 percent more than last year. Rates are falling slowly and margins are holding.
- Small things that reach the wallet: a new 3 euro duty on small parcels, a 450 thousand euro fine for the InMedica clinic over data protection breaches, and proposals to limit unemployment benefits running into political resistance.
Europe
- Serbia, Vučić steps back: the president announced he will resign within weeks and call early elections. This is the result of 18 months of student protests, set off by the collapse of the Novi Sad station canopy in November 2024, which killed 16 people. A victory for the protesters? More like a manoeuvre, because Vučić can return as prime minister if his party wins the parliamentary vote.
- France has counted about a thousand excess deaths during the heatwave. The same heat reached Lithuania this weekend, with up to 36 degrees forecast in places.
Ukraine
- The Moscow refinery, a second strike in a week: Ukrainian long-range drones hit the Moscow oil refinery again, with targets also recorded in Rostov region. The plant is one of the largest in Russia, supplied 40 percent of the Moscow region’s fuel, and will be out of service until early 2027.
- Russia is starting to import fuel. That is not a detail, it is the first visible break in refining capacity, when an oil exporter can no longer keep itself supplied.
- Zelensky: it is time to end the war, and Russia must take diplomatic steps. The rhetoric is about an ending, the actions are about escalation.
Geopolitics
- The United States and Iran slide back toward war: the memorandum of agreement signed on June 17 was meant to open Hormuz and end the conflict. On June 26 the United States struck Iranian coastal surveillance sites, and on June 27 Tehran called that a plain violation of the memorandum.
- Trump’s rhetoric: if Iran closes Hormuz, there will be no country left. To Iranian talk of a right to enrich uranium he answered with a threat to take over what remains of the country.
- Iran’s answer: the army is ready, and the Revolutionary Guard declared that the US strikes stop any diplomacy.
- The paradox is that oil still gets cheaper. The market does not believe the strait will actually close, so the war rhetoric barely shows up in the price.
Central banks
- Inflation: Friday’s PCE reading, the personal consumption expenditures price index, came in softer than expected on the month, which lifted gold and brought back talk of a possible rate cut. The Fed is holding the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range for now and is in no hurry.
IPO radar
- OpenAI delays its listing: according to the New York Times, the company is leaning toward moving the debut to 2027, citing cash burn and market swings.
- The SpaceX effect: the shares, which debuted on June 11, rose from $135 to $225, market value briefly passed $2 trillion, and then it came back to $152, almost the starting price. That fall is exactly what frightened the market.
- Chips fall together: Arm and Marvell down about 4 percent, AMD down 3.5 percent, Intel down 3 percent.
What to watch tomorrow
- Whether the United States and Iran keep striking, and whether oil finally reacts to the escalation.
- Whether the Nasdaq breaks its five session losing run, or the selling in chips deepens.
- What the EU answers the Baltic states on the timetable for the Russian oil ban.
- The effect of Ukraine’s refinery campaign on the Russian fuel market over the coming weeks.
- Serbia’s election timetable, and whether Vučić actually leaves or just moves himself into another chair.
Meška’s comment
The nerve of the week is not oil and not Iran, it is SpaceX. When a seventy-five billion dollar debut returns to its starting price in two weeks, and a frightened OpenAI pushes its own listing into 2027, that is not a separate episode, it is a sign that money for artificial intelligence has stopped being free. Chips are not falling on bad results, they are falling because the market is starting to count rather than dream.
At the same time gold is rising again and oil is getting cheaper even in the face of a war threat. That is late cycle logic, capital runs not into risk but into what survives. At the break of a hegemony the most expensive dreams deflate first, and the invoice comes later.