Market snapshot
Equities recovered after the Fed shock. The S&P 500 finished at 7,500.58 (+1.08 percent), the Nasdaq at 26,517.93 (+1.91 percent), the Dow at 51,564.70 (+0.14 percent). That is Thursday’s close, June 18, because US exchanges were shut on Friday for Juneteenth. After Wednesday’s hawkish turn at the Fed, technology bounced back fastest.
Oil is holding high because of Hormuz. WTI is around $77.5 and Brent around $80.5 a barrel. The premium is not coming out, because US and Iranian peace talks in Switzerland broke off abruptly, even though the price has already eased from its 2026 peak.
Gold pulled back from the highs, to roughly $4,170 to $4,245 an ounce.
Bitcoin is weak, around $63,400, below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The longer-term direction is down.
The dollar is calm, with DXY around 100.85. It is holding after the Fed turn, but the structural pressure downward has not gone anywhere.
Lithuania and the Baltics
The government breaks. The Social Democrats are reshaping the governing majority, pushing out Nemuno Aušra and inviting in the Democratic Union For Lithuania. The cabinet plans to resign on June 23. Inga Ruginienė returns to the Ministry of Social Security and Labour, which she ran before becoming prime minister. LSDP leader Mindaugas Sinkevičius takes the wheel.
Butkevičius cuts at his own. The former prime minister says publicly that the Social Democrats’ decision to make Ruginienė premier was not a responsible one. The friction inside the party is not being hidden.
A signal on conscription. The LSDP leader is floating the idea that Lithuania could introduce universal conscription in future. The defence question surfaces at exactly the moment power changes hands.
The Centre of Registers leak. About a thousand people intend to sue over the leaked data. At the same time the Centre is temporarily suspending its self-service portal and the e-health system for an upgrade.
The tax front. Business is reminding the government of its election promises on the minimum monthly wage and the tax-exempt income threshold. For borrowers the forecasts are unfavourable, and the financial burden may grow.
Europe
Starmer steps back. British media report that the prime minister intends to resign on Monday and set out a timetable for his departure. Andy Burnham won a by-election on June 18 with 54.8 percent and is aiming for the Labour leadership. The crisis was deepened by arguments over the defence budget, and three people left the Ministry of Defence, among them minister John Healey.
Estonia clears out Moscow’s channels. An Estonian court ordered the Orthodox Church to cut its ties with Moscow. The Baltic states keep unhooking the Kremlin’s levers of influence.
Meloni hit back at Trump. The Italian prime minister answered Trump’s criticism by suggesting he focus on his own affairs. Transatlantic friction is visible again.
Ukraine
A strike on Siberia. Ukrainian drones hit the Tyumen oil refinery, more than 2,000 km from its own border. Zelensky confirmed upgraded Fire Point drones with a range of up to 3,000 km. It is the second deep strike in two days, after the largest attack yet on Moscow.
Energy as the target. Kyiv is systematically burning Russian oil infrastructure, from Crimea to Siberia. This is no longer a battle line, it is a revenue line.
A Polish and Ukrainian shadow. Three former Ukrainian presidents refused Poland’s Order of the White Eagle. There is diplomatic tension between the neighbours, and in the context of aid that is not a small thing.
Geopolitics
Hormuz on a knife edge. On June 17 Trump and the Iranian president signed a memorandum to end the war, on June 18 the blockade was lifted, and Pakistan reported that Iran would soon open the strait. But the peace talks in Switzerland broke off abruptly on June 19 and 20, and oil rose on the uncertainty.
The sources contradict each other. Vice President Vance says the Iranians have held off firing on ships for a second night running and are keeping to their commitments. LRT writes at the same time that Iran has closed the strait again. The real position is somewhere in the middle, and the truce is fragile.
Lebanon’s price. The death toll from the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has passed 4,000. That is the context for why Iran touched Hormuz at all.
Taiwan is preparing. Taiwan began five days of exercises simulating the repulse of a Chinese attack. The Indo-Pacific is unsettled in parallel with the Middle East.
Central banks
The Fed’s hawkish shock. The June 17 meeting, with new economic projections, showed governors leaning toward a possible rate hike later in 2026. Markets fell the same day and recovered the next. The dot plot turned up rather than down, and that is a signal which will follow the whole second half of the year.
Why it matters. A tighter Fed plus the Hormuz oil premium means one thing, that the fear of inflation is back. Borrowers in Lithuania will feel it through Euribor, if the ECB decides to follow.
What to watch tomorrow
Monday in London. Whether Starmer really announces his departure, and on what timetable. Sterling and gilts will react immediately.
Hormuz. Whether the talks resume and whether shipping stays open. Brent above $80 means the market has not forgotten the tension.
Vilnius. The government’s resignation on June 23 and Sinkevičius as candidate. The details of a coalition with For Lithuania.
Ukraine’s oil campaign. Whether Russia answers the Tyumen strike and whether oil exports fall.
US exchanges. They reopen on Monday after Juneteenth and will absorb the whole weekend’s geopolitics at once.
Meška’s comment
A day without a single centre. Hormuz, Taiwan, London, a Siberian refinery, all heating up at the same time, and that is no coincidence. When the hegemon weakens, tension does not come from one place, it shows up everywhere at once, because nobody holds the order together for free any more.
The Fed is the interesting part. A turn toward tightening means even Washington can no longer make money cheap, because inflation is coming back from that same fragmentation, the oil premium, the supply chains, the rearmament. Lithuania sits in the same current. The government is changing, conscription is being discussed, loans are getting more expensive. Small states do not create the cycle, they feel it first. Today we are feeling it.